IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uvicwp/162232.html

Count Models and Wildfire in British Columbia

Author

Listed:
  • Xu, Zhen
  • van Kooten, G. Cornelis

Abstract

Two count models are estimated in this analysis to explain the occurrence of wildfire and area burned by wildfire in the interior of British Columbia, Canada. The main explanatory variable is the 4-month lagged El Niño 1&2 index, which is found to have a strong positive influence on wildfire in the study region. As a result of the lag on the climate index, the count models can be used to predict annual wildfire occurrence and the overall monthly size of the area burned by fire districts. An increase in the mean value of the monthly El Niño 1&2 index is projected to result in a slight increase in the number of fires and an increase in the probability that large areas will be burned. Not unexpectedly, however, the impact in July and August could be quite high (increases of 30%). In conclusion, given the large variance, actual changes caused by climate change are uncertain and could be dramatic.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Zhen & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2013. "Count Models and Wildfire in British Columbia," Working Papers 162232, University of Victoria, Resource Economics and Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uvicwp:162232
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.162232
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q26 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uvicwp:162232. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://web.uvic.ca/econ/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.