IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ectrin/v34y2026i2p261-275.html

Carbon‐Based Public Finance: Debt‐Alleviating Effects of a Carbon Tax in China

Author

Listed:
  • Jingting Zhang
  • Junping Zeng

Abstract

To mitigate China's soaring public debt, we advocate for a carbon‐based public finance system centred around a carbon tax. CGE modelling shows that an origin‐based carbon tax can significantly alleviate debt pressure, a finding subsequently supported by empirical research using a generalised DiD method. We believe that generating public revenue from carbon emissions is highly sustainable. However, spillovers are worth noticing, and destination‐based carbon taxes warrant careful consideration. Apart from a carbon tax, the Chinese government should also advance an auction system for emission allowances in the carbon market, for the establishment of a comprehensive carbon‐based public finance system.

Suggested Citation

  • Jingting Zhang & Junping Zeng, 2026. "Carbon‐Based Public Finance: Debt‐Alleviating Effects of a Carbon Tax in China," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 261-275, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:ectrin:v:34:y:2026:i:2:p:261-275
    DOI: 10.1111/ecot.70010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.70010
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecot.70010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N Gregory Mankiw, 2009. "Smart Taxes: An Open Invitation to Join the Pigou Club," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 14-23.
    2. Kevin A. Hassett & Aparna Mathur & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2009. "The Incidence of a U.S. Carbon Tax: A Lifetime and Regional Analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(2), pages 155-178, April.
    3. World Bank & Ecofys & Vivid Economics & Thomas Michael Kerr, "undated". "State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2016," World Bank Publications - Reports 25160, The World Bank Group.
    4. Florian Landis & Thomas Bernauer, 2012. "Transfer payments in global climate policy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 628-633, August.
    5. Kunyu Tao, 2015. "Assessing Local Government Debt Risks in China: A Case Study of Local Government Financial Vehicles," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(5), pages 1-25, September.
    6. repec:aen:journl:2009v30-02-a08 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Govinda R. Timilsina & Yazid Dissou & Michael Toman & Dirk Heine, 2024. "How can a carbon tax benefit developing economies with informality? A CGE analysis for Côte d’Ivoire," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 71-86, January.
    8. Sugandha D. Tuladhar & W. David Montgomery & Noah Kaufman, 2015. "Environmental Policy for Fiscal Reform: Can a Carbon Tax Play a Role?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 68(1), pages 179-194, March.
    9. Qu, Xi & Xu, Zhiwei & Yu, Jinxiang & Zhu, Jun, 2023. "Understanding local government debt in China: A regional competition perspective," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    10. Weitzman, Martin L., 2017. "Voting on prices vs. voting on quantities in a World Climate Assembly," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 199-211.
    11. Lawrence H. Goulder, 1992. "Carbon Tax Design and US Industry Performance," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 6, pages 59-104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Wang, P.P. & Huang, G.H. & Li, Y.P. & Liu, Y.Y. & Li, Y.F., 2024. "An ecological input-output CGE model for unveiling CO2 emission metabolism under China's dual carbon goals," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    13. Donald B. Marron & Eric J. Toder, 2014. "Tax Policy Issues in Designing a Carbon Tax," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 563-568, May.
    14. Gyourko, Joseph & Shen, Yang & Wu, Jing & Zhang, Rongjie, 2022. "Land finance in China: Analysis and review," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    15. Lee-Ann Steenkamp, 2021. "A classification framework for carbon tax revenue use," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 897-911, August.
    16. Strand, Jon, 2013. "Strategic climate policy with offsets and incomplete abatement: Carbon taxes versus cap-and-trade," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 202-218.
    17. Cristina Fernandez & Leonardo Villar, 2017. "The Impact of Lowering the Payroll Tax on Informality in Colombia," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2017), pages 125-155.
    18. Yang, Mian & Fan, Ying & Yang, Fuxia & Hu, Hui, 2014. "Regional disparities in carbon dioxide reduction from China's uniform carbon tax: A perspective on interfactor/interfuel substitution," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 131-139.
    19. Stefano Carattini & Maria Carvalho & Sam Fankhauser, 2018. "Overcoming public resistance to carbon taxes," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(5), September.
    20. Geng, Xin & Qian, Meijun, 2024. "Understanding the local government debt in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    21. Liang, Qiao-Mei & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2012. "Distributional impacts of taxing carbon in China: Results from the CEEPA model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 545-551.
    22. Cao, Jing & Dai, Hancheng & Li, Shantong & Guo, Chaoyi & Ho, Mun & Cai, Wenjia & He, Jianwu & Huang, Hai & Li, Jifeng & Liu, Yu & Qian, Haoqi & Wang, Can & Wu, Libo & Zhang, Xiliang, 2021. "The general equilibrium impacts of carbon tax policy in China: A multi-model comparison," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    23. Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, July.
    24. Lin, Boqiang & Li, Xuehui, 2011. "The effect of carbon tax on per capita CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5137-5146, September.
    25. Jenny Sumner & Lori Bird & Hillary Dobos, 2011. "Carbon taxes: a review of experience and policy design considerations," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 922-943, March.
    26. Lei Zhang & Yuyu Chen & Zongyan He, 2018. "The effect of investment tax incentives: evidence from China’s value-added tax reform," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(4), pages 913-945, August.
    27. Jipeng Zhang & Jianyong Fan & Jiawei Mo, 2017. "Government Intervention, Land Market, And Urban Development: Evidence From Chinese Cities," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 115-136, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xu, Qi & Liu, Kui, 2024. "Hero or Devil: A comparison of different carbon tax policies for China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    2. Stefano Carattini & Maria Carvalho & Sam Fankhauser, 2018. "Overcoming public resistance to carbon taxes," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(5), September.
    3. Hammerle, Mara & Best, Rohan & Crosby, Paul, 2021. "Public acceptance of carbon taxes in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    4. Umit, Resul & Schaffer, Lena Maria, 2020. "Attitudes towards carbon taxes across Europe: The role of perceived uncertainty and self-interest," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2023. "Carbon taxation: A review of the empirical literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1353-1388, September.
    6. Dong, Huijuan & Dai, Hancheng & Geng, Yong & Fujita, Tsuyoshi & Liu, Zhe & Xie, Yang & Wu, Rui & Fujii, Minoru & Masui, Toshihiko & Tang, Liang, 2017. "Exploring impact of carbon tax on China’s CO2 reductions and provincial disparities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 596-603.
    7. Dorothée CHARLIER & Mouez FODHA & Djamel KIRAT, 2021. "CO2 Emissions from the Residential Sector in Europe: Some Insights form a Country-Level Assessment," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2849, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    8. Rohan Best & Paul J. Burke & Frank Jotzo, 2020. "Carbon Pricing Efficacy: Cross-Country Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(1), pages 69-94, September.
    9. Li, Yangfan & Zhang, Xiaoyun, 2023. "Recycling scheme of carbon pricing for inclusive decarbonization and energy transition: A recursive computable general equilibrium analysis in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    10. Macdonald, Kevin & Patrinos, Harry Anthony, 2021. "Education Quality, Green Technology, and the Economic Impact of Carbon Pricing," GLO Discussion Paper Series 955, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. He, Zhimin & Chen, Weiye & Chen, Minghui & He, Shuping, 2025. "Local government debt and commercial bank liquidity creation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Andrea Amado & Koji Kotani & Makoto Kakinaka & Shunsuke Managi, 2023. "Carbon tax for cleaner-energy transition: A vignette experiment in Japan," Working Papers SDES-2023-6, Kochi University of Technology, School of Economics and Management, revised Oct 2023.
    13. Dorothée Charlier & Mouez Fodha & Djamel Kirat, 2023. "Residential CO2 Emissions in Europe and Carbon Taxation: A Country-Level Assessment," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(5), pages 187-206, September.
    14. Chen, Zi-yue & Nie, Pu-yan, 2016. "Effects of carbon tax on social welfare: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1607-1615.
    15. Erbertseder, Thilo & Jacob, Martin & Taubenböck, Hannes & Zerwer, Kira, 2025. "How effective are emission taxes in reducing air pollution? A satellite-based case study for Spain," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1037-1063.
    16. Mardones, Cristian & Flores, Belén, 2018. "Effectiveness of a CO2 tax on industrial emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 370-382.
    17. de Bruin, Kelly & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2024. "Efficiency–equity trade-off in the Irish carbon tax: A CGE investigation of mixed revenue recycling schemes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Bourgeois, Cyril & Giraudet, Louis-Gaëtan & Quirion, Philippe, 2021. "Lump-sum vs. energy-efficiency subsidy recycling of carbon tax revenue in the residential sector: A French assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    19. Elbaum Jean-David, 2021. "The effect of a carbon tax on per capita carbon dioxide emissions: evidence from Finland," IRENE Working Papers 21-05, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    20. Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline, 2022. "Rendre acceptable la nécessaire taxation du carbone. Quelles pistes pour la France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 15-53.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ectrin:v:34:y:2026:i:2:p:261-275. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)2577-6983 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.