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Resource windfalls and political sabotage: Evidence from 5.2 million political ads

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  • David Lagziel
  • Ehud Lehrer
  • Ohad Raveh

Abstract

We study the role of incentives in inducing sabotage in political contents, vis‐à‐vis natural resource windfalls. The latter induce plausibly exogenous increases in contests' stakes by extending opportunities for policy implementation or private gain upon winning and enhancing incumbent advantage. A model of political contests with endogenous sabotage indicates that higher stakes increase sabotage in political campaigns. We validate these predictions using over 5 million TV ads from United States gubernatorial elections (2010–2020), leveraging plausibly exogenous variations in states' natural resource endowments. Results show that resource windfalls significantly escalate negative campaigning: A standard deviation increase in resource windfalls leads to a 10% rise in campaign negativity. We show that this effect is primarily fueled by corruption and observed most strongly in symmetric, more competitive environments.

Suggested Citation

  • David Lagziel & Ehud Lehrer & Ohad Raveh, 2026. "Resource windfalls and political sabotage: Evidence from 5.2 million political ads," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 108(2), pages 630-664, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:108:y:2026:i:2:p:630-664
    DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12551
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P18 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Energy; Environment

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