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Unemployment and growth: some empirical evidence from structural time series models

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  • V. Anton Muscatelli
  • Patrizio Tirelli

Abstract

This study investigates the empirical relationship between unemployment and growth in a number of OECD economies. A structural time series model is used for labour productivity growth to demonstrate that, in most economies, there seems to be a negative correlation between unemployment and labour productivity growth. The results provide little support for the theory that recessions may stimulate productivity growth. The use of a structural time series approach allows an attempt to model the underlying dynamics of productivity growth jointly with the effect of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli, 2001. "Unemployment and growth: some empirical evidence from structural time series models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 1083-1088.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:8:p:1083-1088 DOI: 10.1080/00036840010003276
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexiadis, Stilianos & Eleftheriou, Konstantinos, 2010. "The Morphology of Income Convergence in US States: New Evidence using an Error-Correction-Model," MPRA Paper 20096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Luca Gori & Luciano Fanti, 2009. "Right-to-manage unions endogenous growth and welfare," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 903-917.
    3. Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2010. "R&D, unemployment, and labor market policies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 198-205, August.
    4. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Ryonghun Im, 2016. "Bubbles and unemployment in an endogenous growth model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 1084-1106.
    5. Ignat Stepanok, 2016. "Creative destruction and unemployment in an open economy model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 931-948, August.
    6. Gallegati Marco & Gallegati Mauro & Ramsey James B. & Semmler Willi, 2016. "Productivity and unemployment: a scale-by-scale panel data analysis for the G7 countries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 477-493, September.
    7. Thomas B. King, 2005. "Labor productivity and job-market flows: trends, cycles, and correlations," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Tetsugen Haruyama & Campbell Leith, 2010. "Unemployment And The Productivity Slowdown: An Effciency Wage Perspective," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 301-319.
    9. Schreiber Sven, 2009. "Unemployment and Productivity, Slowdowns and Speed-Ups: Evidence Using Common Shifts," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, October.
    10. Hiroaki Miyamoto & Yuya Takahashi, 2009. "Technological Progress, On-the-Job Search, and Unemployment," ISER Discussion Paper 0734, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    11. Malley, Jim & Muscatelli, V. Anton, 1999. "Business cycles and productivity growth: Are temporary downturns productive or wasteful?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, pages 337-364.
    12. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Vassilis Tselios, 2010. "Inequalities in income and education and regional economic growth in western Europe," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 44(2), pages 349-375, April.
    13. Jalles João Tovar, 2015. "Is There A Stable Long-run Relationship Between Unemployment And Productivity? / Czy Istnieje Stabilny Długookresowy Związek Między Bezrobociem A Produktywnością?," Comparative Economic Research, De Gruyter Open, vol. 18(2), pages 57-75, June.
    14. Gaetano Lisi & Maurizio Pugno, 2015. "A matching model of endogenous growth and underground firms," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 11(4), pages 347-369, December.
    15. Campbell leith & Chol-Won Li, 2001. "Unemployment and the Productivity Slowdown: A Labour Supply Perspective," Working Papers 2001_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    16. Miyamoto, Hiroaki & Takahashi, Yuya, 2011. "Productivity growth, on-the-job search, and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 666-680.
    17. Gaetano Lisi & Maurizio Pugno, 2010. "The Underground Economy in a Matching Model of Endogenous Growth," Working Papers 2010-07, Universita' di Cassino, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche.
    18. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Ryonghun Im, 2016. "Asset bubbles, labor market frictions, and R&D-based growth," Discussion Papers 1642, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    19. Schreiber, Sven, 2009. "Explaining shifts in the unemployment rate with productivity slowdowns and accelerations: a co-breaking approach," Kiel Working Papers 1505, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    20. V A Muscatelli., 1995. "Flexibility, Structural Change and the Global Economy," Working Papers 9601, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jan 1996.
    21. Jan Fidrmuc & Shuo Huang, 2013. "Unemployment, Growth and Speed of Transition in China," CESifo Working Paper Series 4410, CESifo Group Munich.
    22. Patrick Wilson & Simon Stevenson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2007. "Foreign Property Shocks and the Impact on Domestic Securitized Real Estate Markets: An Unobserved Components Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 407-424, April.
    23. Takuma Kunieda & Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Ryonghun Im, 2017. "Asset Bubbles, Unemployment, and a Financial Crisis," Discussion Paper Series 156, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Feb 2017.

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