A factor model of term structure slopes in Eurocurrency markets
Recent empirical work has documented the existence of specific information in the slope of the term structure which is relevant to forecast future changes in economic activity. A good forecasting model of term structure slopes could therefore be helpful to anticipate changes in economic activity with an even longer anticipation. Firstly, it is analysed whether a good forecasting model can be found for term structure slopes in different currencies. After that, a factor model is constructed of term structure slopes, and the quality of slope forecasts obtained from factor models are compared to those obtained from univariate models.
Volume (Year): 9 (2002)
Issue (Month): 9 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEL20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991.
" The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Katsimbris, George M & Miller, Stephen M, 1993. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: Further Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 771-79, November.
- Karfakis, Costas J & Moschos, Demetrios M, 1990.
"Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 389-94, August.
- Karfakis, C. J. & Moschos, D.M., 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages Within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 144, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Hagen, Jurgen von & Fratianni, Michele, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS: evidence from interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 358-375, December.
- Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:9:y:2002:i:9:p:585-593. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.