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Commodity price volatility, inflation uncertainty and political stability


  • Rexford Abaidoo

    (University of Maryland Eastern Shore)

  • Elvis Kwame Agyapong

    (Ghana Institutes of Public Administration)


The study examines the effect of fluctuations in prices of key internationally traded commodities, inflation, inflation uncertainty and macroeconomic uncertainty on political stability among emerging economies in Sub-Saharan Africa using panel data from 1996 to 2019. Empirical analysis examining the relationship in question is performed using pooled ordinary least squares with Driscoll and Kray (Rev Econ Stat 80(4):549-560, 1998) standard errors. Estimated results suggest that volatility in prices of crude oil, copper, and coal exert significant negative influence on political stability among economies in the sub-region. Further empirical estimates show that volatility in exchange rate denominated price of gold and natural gas on the international market have significant positive impact on political stability among economies in the sub-region. Our analysis additionally suggest that regulatory quality positively moderates the extent to which volatility in the price of copper ultimately impact political stability, but moderates negatively, the extent to which volatility in prices of gold and coal affect political stability among economies in the sub-region.

Suggested Citation

  • Rexford Abaidoo & Elvis Kwame Agyapong, 2022. "Commodity price volatility, inflation uncertainty and political stability," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 69(3), pages 351-381, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:inrvec:v:69:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s12232-022-00395-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s12232-022-00395-3

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    3. Huda, Md Nazmul & Hossain, Sayed Mohammad Athar & Shaturaev, Jakhongir, 2023. "Effect of Commodity Exchange on the Economy- Prospects and Challenges," MPRA Paper 118331, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Mar 2023.

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    More about this item


    Commodity price volatility; Political stability; Corruption control; Government effectiveness; Regulatory quality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization


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