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Testing the emission reduction claims of CDM projects using the Benford’s Law

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  • Matthew A. Cole

    (University of Birmingham)

  • David J. Maddison

    (University of Birmingham)

  • Liyun Zhang

    (University of Birmingham)

Abstract

Benford’s Law suggests that the first digits of numerical data are heavily skewed towards low numbers. Data that fail to conform to Benford’s Law when conformity is to be expected may have been manipulated. Using Benford’s Law, we conduct digital frequency analysis on the emission reduction claims of Clean Development Mechanism projects. Digital frequency analysis indicates that although emission reduction claims made in project design documents do not conform to Benford’s Law, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that data on certified emission reductions do. Benford’s Law offers a rapid, low-cost means of identifying possible instances of data manipulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew A. Cole & David J. Maddison & Liyun Zhang, 2020. "Testing the emission reduction claims of CDM projects using the Benford’s Law," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 407-426, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:160:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02593-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02593-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Mikkel Bennedsen, 2021. "Designing a statistical procedure for monitoring global carbon dioxide emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-19, June.
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