IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/apjors/v9y2025i2d10.1007_s41685-025-00381-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of climate and economic policy uncertainties on inflation in India: using the vector error correction model approach

Author

Listed:
  • A. Akshaya

    (National Institute of Technology Karnataka)

  • B. V. Gopalakrishna

    (National Institute of Technology Karnataka)

Abstract

Economic policies are designed to address challenges in the economic environment and mitigate future associated risks and uncertainties. The present study addressed the impact of policy uncertainties such as climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on price inflation in India. The data were sourced from the Reserve Bank of India and Policy Uncertainty databases from April 2004 to March 2024. Descriptive statistics and stationarity tests were conducted to analyze the characteristics of the variables. Johansen’s cointegration test assessed the long-term relationships among the regressors. The vector error correction model (VECM) and impulse response function (IRF) were used to evaluate long-run equilibrium dynamics and the responsiveness of inflation to policy uncertainties. The empirical outcomes specified a significant relationship between inflation and economic policy uncertainty, while climate policy uncertainty exhibited an insignificant positive effect on inflation. These findings suggest that policy uncertainties influence inflation and broader economic stability. The study emphasizes the importance of formulating coherent and stable economic policies to mitigate inflationary pressures and foster economic resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Akshaya & B. V. Gopalakrishna, 2025. "Impact of climate and economic policy uncertainties on inflation in India: using the vector error correction model approach," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 585-604, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:9:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s41685-025-00381-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s41685-025-00381-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41685-025-00381-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41685-025-00381-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bijoy Chandra Das & Fakhrul Hasan & Soma Rani Sutradhar, 2024. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty and inflation risk on corporate cash holdings," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 865-887, April.
    2. Wang, Haiyan & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad & Xie, Xin, 2023. "Climate change and blue returns: Evidence from Niche firms in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    3. Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour & Mark E. Wohar & Youssef Errami, 2020. "Is there an effect of policy-related uncertainty on inflation? evidence from the United States under Trump," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(35), pages 3858-3873, July.
    4. Qin, Meng & Zhang, Xiaojing & Li, Yameng & Badarcea, Roxana Maria, 2023. "Blockchain market and green finance: The enablers of carbon neutrality in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2023. "One-stop source: A global database of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria & Galanis, Giorgos, 2018. "Climate Change, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 219-234.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    8. Robert Krol, 2014. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 241-256, June.
    9. Fakhrul Hasan, 2024. "The impact of climate change on dividend policy in the UK stock market," International Journal of Managerial and Financial Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 16(1), pages 119-137.
    10. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    11. Maria Ghani & Usman Ghani, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Emerging Stock Market Volatility," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(1), pages 165-181, March.
    12. Courage Mlambo, 2020. "Exchange rate and manufacturing sector performance in SACU states," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1787735-178, January.
    13. Tarkom, Augustine & Ujah, Nacasius U., 2023. "Inflation, interest rate, and firm efficiency: The impact of policy uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    15. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    16. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Klein, Tony & Jiang, Yong & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2024. "Dynamic spillovers among global oil shocks, economic policy uncertainty, and inflation expectation uncertainty under extreme shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    17. Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun & Mosab I. Tabash & Xuan Vinh Vo & Suhaib Anagreh, 2023. "Uncertainty measures and inflation dynamics in selected global players: a wavelet approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3389-3424, August.
    18. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Tzeremes, Panayiotis & Corbet, Shaen, 2024. "Examining spillovers and connectedness among commodities, inflation, and uncertainty: A quantile-VAR framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. Maquieira, Carlos P. & Espinosa-Méndez, Christian & Gahona-Flores, Orlando, 2023. "How does economic policy uncertainty (EPU) impact copper-firms stock returns? International evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining, 2009. "Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2930-2940, August.
    21. Boubaker, Sabri & Choudhury, Tonmoy & Hasan, Fakhrul & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2024. "Firm carbon risk exposure, stock returns, and dividend payment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 248-276.
    22. Peng, Lijuan & Pan, Zhigang & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Exchange rate volatility predictability: A new insight from climate policy uncertainty," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 688-700.
    23. Amin, Md Ruhul & Akindayomi, Akinloye & Sarker, Md Showaib Rahman & Bhuyan, Rafiqul, 2023. "Climate policy uncertainty and corporate tax avoidance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    24. Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2021. "Asymmetric impact of oil price and exchange rate on disaggregation price inflation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    25. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    26. Huawei, Tian, 2022. "Does gross domestic product, inflation, total investment, and exchanges rate matter in natural resources commodity prices volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    27. Raza, Syed Ali & Khan, Komal Akram, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty and its relationship with precious metals price volatility: Comparative analysis pre and during COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    28. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    29. Javed Ahmad Bhat & Naresh Kumar Sharma, 2020. "Identifying fiscal inflation in India: some recent evidence from an asymmetric approach," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 25(50), pages 363-393, July.
    30. Jamilu Iliyasu & Aliyu Rafindadi Sanusi, 2024. "Climate change’s impact on commodity prices: a new challenge for monetary policy," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 23(2), pages 187-212, May.
    31. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    32. Cevik Serhan & Jalles Joao, 2024. "Eye of the Storm: The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 75(2), pages 109-138.
    33. Li, Zheng Zheng & Su, Chi-Wei & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Energy consumption within policy uncertainty: Considering the climate and economic factors," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 567-576.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mehmet Balcilar & George Ike & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting Output Growth in Emerging Markets: A Mixed-Frequency Granger Causality Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(4), pages 1008-1026, March.
    2. Stelios Bekiros & Christos Avdoulas, 2020. "Revisiting the Dynamic Linkages of Treasury Bond Yields for the BRICS: A Forecasting Analysis," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-28, May.
    3. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2021. "Quantifying sovereign risk in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 76-96.
    4. Chen, Juan & Xiao, Zuoping, 2025. "Is the business cycle getting hit by climate policy uncertainty in China?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Bekiros, Stelios & Avdoulas, Christos & Hassapis, Christis, 2018. "Nonlinear equilibrium adjustment dynamics and predictability of the term structure of interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 140-155.
    6. Chowdhury, Rosen & Cook, Steve & Watson, Duncan, 2023. "Reconsidering the relationship between health and income in the UK," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    7. Tarlok Singh, 2016. "On the sectoral linkages and pattern of economic growth in India," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 257-275, April.
    8. Eva Liljeblom & Sabur Mollah & Patrik Rotter, 2015. "Do dividends signal future earnings in the Nordic stock markets?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 493-511, April.
    9. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:133-144 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Hian Teck HOON & Frank S T Hsiao & Mei-Chu Wang Hsiao, 2020. "FDI, Exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia — Panel Data versus Time-Series Causality Analyses," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Development Strategies of Open Economies Cases from Emerging East and Southeast Asia, chapter 4, pages 81-129, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Michael Jansson & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2012. "Nearly Efficient Likelihood Ratio Tests of the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 2321-2332, September.
    12. Matias Piaggio & Emilio Padilla & Carolina Roman, 2015. "The long-run relationshiop between C02 emissions and economic activity in a small open economy: Uruguay 1882-2010," Working Papers wpdea1506, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    13. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Do house prices hedge inflation in the US? A quantile cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 15-26.
    14. Maparu, Tuhin Subhra & Mazumder, Tarak Nath, 2017. "Transport infrastructure, economic development and urbanization in India (1990–2011): Is there any causal relationship?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 319-336.
    15. Tung Liu & Lee C. Spector, 2005. "Dynamic employment adjustments over business cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 151-169, January.
    16. Singh, Tarlok, 2010. "Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 231-253, March.
    17. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:135-146 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Muhammad Atif Khan & Muhammad Asif Khan & Kishwar Ali & József Popp & Judit Oláh, 2020. "Natural Resource Rent and Finance: The Moderation Role of Institutions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-23, May.
    19. Lena T. Cleanthous & Elena C. Eracleous & Nektarios A. Michail, 2019. "Credit, House Prices and the Macroeconomy in Cyprus," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 17(1), pages 33-55.
    20. Carlo Fezzi & Derek Bunn, 2010. "Structural Analysis of Electricity Demand and Supply Interactions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(6), pages 827-856, December.
    21. Boswijk, H. Peter & Jansson, Michael & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2015. "Improved likelihood ratio tests for cointegration rank in the VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 97-110.
    22. Xue, Pengcheng & Du, Jianhua & Liu, Jiaxin & Li, Zhipeng & Albahooth, Bayan & Yang, Yiting, 2023. "Natural resources and economic perspective: Manufacturing value added for Europe and Central Asian economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:9:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s41685-025-00381-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.