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New Estimates of Over 500 Years of Historic GDP and Population Data

Author

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  • Christopher J. Fariss
  • Therese Anders
  • Jonathan N. Markowitz
  • Miriam Barnum

Abstract

Gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, and population are central to the study of politics and economics broadly, and conflict processes in particular. Despite the prominence of these variables in empirical research, existing data lack historical coverage and are assumed to be measured without error. We develop a latent variable modeling framework that expands data coverage (1500 AD–2018 AD) and, by making use of multiple indicators for each variable, provides a principled framework to estimate uncertainty for values for all country-year variables relative to one another. Expanded temporal coverage of estimates provides new insights about the relationship between development and democracy, conflict, repression, and health. We also demonstrate how to incorporate uncertainty in observational models. Results show that the relationship between repression and development is weaker than models that do not incorporate uncertainty suggest. Future extensions of the latent variable model can address other forms of systematic measurement error with new data, new measurement theory, or both.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher J. Fariss & Therese Anders & Jonathan N. Markowitz & Miriam Barnum, 2022. "New Estimates of Over 500 Years of Historic GDP and Population Data," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(3), pages 553-591, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:66:y:2022:i:3:p:553-591
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027211054432
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    3. Lars Pelke, 2023. "Reanalysing the link between democracy and economic development," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 361-383, December.
    4. Kim, Nam Kyu, 2023. "Regime legitimation strategies and competition laws in autocracies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    5. Federico Maggio & Dominic Rohner & Alessandro Saia, 2024. "The Democracy Dividend: ˗How Early Exposure to Democracy Shapes Health Outcomes˗," CESifo Working Paper Series 11307, CESifo.

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