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Arms Import and Civil Conflict Onset: Risk-Set Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960–2022

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Balestra

    (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, & International Peace Science Center (IPSC), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy)

  • Raul Caruso

    (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, & International Peace Science Center (IPSC), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy - European Center of Peace Science, Integration and Cooperation (CESPIC), Catholic University ‘Our Lady of Good Counsel’, Tirana, Albania)

Abstract

Civil conflicts impose massive costs, yet their onset determinants remain contested. This paper examines whether deliveries of major conventional weapons (MCW) precipitate new intrastate violence episodes,using annual panel data for 46 Sub-Saharan African countries (1960–2022). We construct civil conflict onset on an explicit risk set - excluding ongoing-conflict years per McGrath (2015) - and model duration dependence via cubic peace-years polynomials (Carter and Signorino, 2010). The key regressor is inverse hyperbolic sine-transformed SIPRI TIV deliveries (contemporaneous plus lags), capturing realized coercive inflows. Within-country fixed effects models reveal a robust positive association: unusual delivery spikes elevate onset probability. Placebo leads yield no pre-trends; leave-one-country-out diagnostics confirm broad-based effects. Fiscal capacity enters negatively, supporting crowding-out channels. To connect with climate-related stress pathways, we control for lagged climatic anomalies using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and its square: these aggregate country-year terms are imprecisely estimated and do not display robust direct effects on onset once fixed effects and institutional covariates are included, but their inclusion leaves the arms-onset relationship essentially unchanged. Results survive nonlinear triangulation (logit, PPML, cloglog), wild bootstrap, and permutation inference. Cumulative availability and binned exposures display monotone escalation. Findings advance Pamp et al. (2018) conditional insight - arms amplify hazard selectively in high-risk settings - via risk-set precision and Sub-Saharan identification, while suggesting that climate-conflict links may be difficult to detect in annual national panels where climatic exposure and its institutional mediation are highly heterogeneous. Policy cautions against unconditioned MCW to fragile recipients, favoring capacity-contingent restraint.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Balestra & Raul Caruso, 2026. "Arms Import and Civil Conflict Onset: Risk-Set Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960–2022," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Politica Economica dipe0055, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0055
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    File URL: http://dipartimenti.unicatt.it/politica-economica-DIPE0055.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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