IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cdiwps/hal-03401539.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exploring Tilly’s Theory : Violent Conflicts and Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Alou Adessé Dama

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International)

Abstract

This article explores the relationship between violent conflicts and tax revenue in Sub-Saharan countries. In a first stage, I estimate the effects of conflicts for 42 countries using panel data analysis. I find that an outbreak of violent conflict leads to an average 1.5 percent loss of tax revenue per capita. The results show that due to the outbreak of violence, government cannot successfully raise revenue, and because the conflict also negatively affects key macroeconomic variables, the tax base shrink and the overall loss is higher. The results also point to an important role of some specificities of Sub-Saharan countries such as ethnic division and natural resource endowment. Drawing on these results, I conduct case study for Central African Republic, Cote d'Ivoire, Congo Republic, Guinea and Guinea Bissau in a second stage using synthetic control method. The results show that the 2002 conflict in Cote d'Ivoire and the 1998 conflict in Guinea-Bissau led to significant drop in tax revenue. The outbreak of conflict did not have significant effects on tax revenue for the remaining three countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Alou Adessé Dama, 2021. "Exploring Tilly’s Theory : Violent Conflicts and Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa," CERDI Working papers hal-03401539, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-03401539
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://uca.hal.science/hal-03401539
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://uca.hal.science/hal-03401539/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2002. "On the Incidence of Civil War in Africa," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 13-28, February.
    2. José G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2005. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 796-816, June.
    3. Émilie Caldeira & Ali Compaore & Alou Adessé Dama & Mario Mansour & Grégoire Rota-Graziosi, 2019. "Effort fiscal en Afrique subsaharienne : les résultats d’une nouvelle base de données," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 27(4), pages 5-51.
    4. Stefano Costalli & Luigi Moretti & Costantino Pischedda, 2017. "The economic costs of civil war," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 54(1), pages 80-98, January.
    5. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2010. "State Capacity, Conflict, and Development," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 1-34, January.
    6. Hainmueller, Jens, 2012. "Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects: A Multivariate Reweighting Method to Produce Balanced Samples in Observational Studies," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 25-46, January.
    7. Paul Collier & Dominic Rohner, 2008. "Democracy, Development, and Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 531-540, 04-05.
    8. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2009. "The Origins of State Capacity: Property Rights, Taxation, and Politics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1218-1244, September.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    10. Vincenzo Bove & Leandro Eliay & Ron P Smith, 2014. "The relationship between panel and synthetic control estimators of the effect of civil war," BCAM Working Papers 1406, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    11. Balima, Hippolyte Weneyam, 2020. "Coups d’état and the cost of debt," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 509-528.
    12. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    13. repec:cep:stieop:41 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1961. "The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number peac61-1, January.
    15. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    16. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2014. "Why Do Developing Countries Tax So Little?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 99-120, Fall.
    17. Acemoglu, Daron, 2003. "Why not a political Coase theorem? Social conflict, commitment, and politics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 620-652, December.
    18. Joseph A. Hill, 1894. "The Civil War Income Tax," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 8(4), pages 416-452.
    19. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    20. Burgess, Robin & Stern, Nicholas, 1993. "Taxation and Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 762-830, June.
    21. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    22. Stefano Costalli & Luigi Moretti & Costantino Pischedda, 2014. "The Economic Costs of Civil War: Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence and the Effects of Ethnic Fractionalization," HiCN Working Papers 184, Households in Conflict Network.
    23. Leeson, Peter T., 2007. "Better off stateless: Somalia before and after government collapse," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 689-710, December.
    24. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    25. Rasler, Karen A. & Thompson, William R., 1985. "War Making and State Making: Governmental Expenditures, Tax Revenues, and Global Wars," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 491-507, June.
    26. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 75-90, February.
    27. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    28. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    29. Persson, Torsten & Besley, Tim, 2013. "Taxation and Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 9307, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Bethany Lacina & Nils Petter Gleditsch, 2005. "Monitoring Trends in Global Combat: A New Dataset of Battle Deaths," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 145-166, June.
    31. Joan Esteban & Laura Mayoral & Debraj Ray, 2012. "Ethnicity and Conflict: An Empirical Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1310-1342, June.
    32. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    33. Baunsgaard, Thomas & Keen, Michael, 2010. "Tax revenue and (or?) trade liberalization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 563-577, October.
    34. Chester Lloyd Jones, 1915. "War and Public Finance in South America," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(8), pages 791-791.
    35. Alexander James, 2015. "US State Fiscal Policy and Natural Resources," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 238-257, August.
    36. repec:idq:ictduk:13659 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Horiuchi, Yusaku & Mayerson, Asher, 2015. "The Opportunity Cost of Conflict: Statistically Comparing Israel and Synthetic Israel," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 609-618, September.
    38. Vanessa van den Boogaard & Wilson Prichard & Matthew S. Benson & Nikola Milicic, 2018. "Tax Revenue Mobilization in Conflict†affected Developing Countries," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 345-364, March.
    39. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    40. Tilman Br�ck & Olaf J. De Groot, 2013. "The Economic Impact of Violent Conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 497-501, December.
    41. Gardeazabal, Javier, 2010. "Methods for Measuring Aggregate Costs of Conflict," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    42. Gérard CHAMBAS, 2005. "Afrique au Sud du Sahara : quelle stratégie de transition fiscale ?," Working Papers 200501, CERDI.
    43. Fabien Cardoni, 2014. "The 'science' of French public finances in the First World War," Accounting History Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2-3), pages 119-138, November.
    44. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    45. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2004. "Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars," Economics Working Papers 770, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2005.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2011. "Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9624.
    2. Aguirre, Alvaro, 2016. "The risk of civil conflicts as a determinant of political institutions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 36-59.
    3. Vincenzo Bove & Leandro Eliay & Ron P Smith, 2014. "The relationship between panel and synthetic control estimators of the effect of civil war," BCAM Working Papers 1406, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    4. Olaf J de Groot & Carlos Bozzoli & Anousheh Alamir & Tilman Brück, 2022. "The global economic burden of violent conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 259-276, March.
    5. Roberto Ezcurra & Beatriz Manotas, 2015. "Does globalization promote civil war? An empirical research," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1501, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    6. Kodjo Adandohoin & Jean-Francois Brun, 2020. "Are incomes and property taxes effective instruments for tax transition?," Working Papers hal-03053683, HAL.
    7. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2023. "Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey," Papers 2311.15458, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    8. Jetter, Michael & Mahmood, Rafat & Parmeter, Christopher F. & Ramirez Hassan, Andres, 2020. "Explaining Post-Cold-War Civil Conflict among 17 Billion Models: The Importance of History and Religion," IZA Discussion Papers 13511, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Kodjo Adandohoin & Jean-Francois Brun, 2021. "The Role of Income and Property Taxes in Tax Transition and the Mediating Effect of Financial Development," Post-Print hal-03470540, HAL.
    10. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Lessmann, Christian & Markwardt, Gunther, 2018. "Natural resource rents and internal conflicts: Can decentralization lift the curse?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 186-205.
    11. J Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2016. "Determinants of Civil War and Excess Zeroes," SALDRU Working Papers 191, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Leopoldo Fergusson & Simon Johnson, 2017. "Population and Civil War," NBER Working Papers 23322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Chowdhury, Prabal Roy & Rahman, Habibur, 2023. "Does credit availability mitigate domestic conflict?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    14. Samer Matta & Michael Bleaney & Simon Appleton, 2022. "The economic impact of political instability and mass civil protest," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 253-270, March.
    15. Serhan Cevik & Mohammad Rahmati, 2015. "Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 57(4), pages 569-597, December.
    16. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2013. "Seeds of distrust: conflict in Uganda," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 217-252, September.
    17. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    18. Lax-Martinez, Gema & Rohner, Dominic & Saia, Alessandro, 2022. "Threat of taxation, stagnation and social unrest: Evidence from 19th century sicily," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 361-371.
    19. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2010. "State Capacity, Conflict, and Development," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 1-34, January.
    20. Camille Laville, 2018. "The econometrical causal analysis of internal conflicts: The evolutions of a growing literature [L’analyse économétrique des conflits internes par l’approche causale : les évolutions d’une littérat," Working Papers hal-01940461, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax; Internal conflict; Government revenue; Subsaharian Africa;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-03401539. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - CERDI - Université Clermont Auvergne (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.