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Impactos socioeconómicos y ambientales de compensaciones por la reducción de emisiones de deforestación en Bolivia: resultados del modelo OSIRIS-Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Lykke Andersen

    (Directora del Centro de Economía y Medioambiente (CEEMA) del Instituto de Estudios Avanzados en Desarrollo (INESAD) e investigadora y docente de la Universidad Privada Boliviana (UPB).)

  • Jonah Busch

    (Center for Global Development, Washington, DC.)

  • Elizabeth Curran

    (CEEMA-INESAD, San Francisco, USA.)

  • Juan Carlos Ledezma

    (Conservación Internacional – Bolivia.)

  • Joaquín Mayorga

    (CEEMA-INESAD, La Paz, Bolivia.)

  • Pablo Ruiz

    (University of California – San Diego, USA.)

Abstract

Bolivia tiene un gran potencial para mitigar el cambio climático a través de la reducción de la deforestación. Mientras que las posibles complicaciones han sido intensamente debatidas, se ha realizado poco análisis cuantitativo al respecto. Introducimos el modelo OSIRISBolivia, con el fin de crear una base cuantitativa para la toma de decisiones. OSIRIS-Bolivia es una herramienta en Excel capaz de analizar los efectos de los incentivos REDD en Bolivia. Esta herramienta está basada en un modelo econométrico-espacial de la deforestación en el periodo 2001-2005, y usa información sobre cobertura forestal, tasas de deforestación, condiciones geográficas, y causantes de la deforestación, así como los costos de oportunidad agrícolas, para más de 120.000 píxeles en todo el país. Se trata de un modelo de equilibrio parcial, en el sentido que toma en cuenta el hecho de que reducciones en la deforestación en un lugar causarán una reducción en la oferta de productos agrícolas, lo que a su vez hará subir los precios agrícolas y aumentará la presión para deforestar en otro lugar (fugas de carbono). El modelo nos puede ayudar a resolver preguntas como: ¿dónde es más probable que funcione REDD?, ¿cuánto dinero necesitamos para reducir la deforestación en cierto porcentaje?, ¿cuáles son los potenciales problemas de REDD?

Suggested Citation

  • Lykke Andersen & Jonah Busch & Elizabeth Curran & Juan Carlos Ledezma & Joaquín Mayorga & Pablo Ruiz, 2014. "Impactos socioeconómicos y ambientales de compensaciones por la reducción de emisiones de deforestación en Bolivia: resultados del modelo OSIRIS-Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB), issue 22, pages 7-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1919
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tol, Richard S.J., 2005. "Emission abatement versus development as strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change: an application of FUND," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 615-629, October.
    2. Andersen, Lykke E. & Suxo, Addy & Verner, Dorte, 2009. "Social impacts of climate change in Peru : a district level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5091, The World Bank.
    3. Lykke E. Andersen & Dorte Verner, 2010. "Social Impacts of Climate Change in Mexico: A municipality level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality," Development Research Working Paper Series 09/2010, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    4. Lawrence Brown & John Jones, 1985. "Spatial Variation In Migration Processes And Development: A Costa Rican Example Of Conventional Modeling Augmented By The Expansion Method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 22(3), pages 327-352, August.
    5. Andersen, Lykke E. & Verner, Dorte, 2010. "Social impacts of climate change in Chile : a municipal level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5170, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lykke E. Andersen & Anna Sophia Doyle & Susana del Granado & Juan Carlos Ledezma & Agnes Medinaceli & Montserrat Valdivia & Diana Weinhold, 2016. "Emisiones Netas de Carbono Provenientes de la Deforestación en Bolivia durante 1990-2000 y 2000-2010: Resultados de un modelo de “Contabilidad de Carbono”," Development Research Working Paper Series 02/2016, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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