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Social impacts of climate change in Peru : a district level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality

Author

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  • Andersen, Lykke E.
  • Suxo, Addy
  • Verner, Dorte

Abstract

This paper uses district level data to estimate the general relationship between climate, income and life expectancy in Peru. The analysis finds that both incomes and life expectancy show hump-shaped relationships, with optimal average annual temperatures around 18-20ºC. These estimated relationships were used to simulate the likely effects of both past (1958-2008) and future (2008-2058) climate change. At the aggregate level, future climate change in Peru is estimated to cause a small reduction in average life expectancy of about 0.2 years. This average, however, hides much larger losses in the already hot areas as well as substantial gains in currently cold areas. Similarly, the average impact on incomes is a modest reduction of 2.3 percent, but with some districts experiencing losses of up to 20 percent and others gains of up to 13 percent. Future climate change is estimated to cause an increase in poverty (all other things equal), but to have no significant effect on the distribution of incomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersen, Lykke E. & Suxo, Addy & Verner, Dorte, 2009. "Social impacts of climate change in Peru : a district level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5091, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5091
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    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2009/10/26/000158349_20091026084634/Rendered/PDF/WPS5091.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andersen, Lykke E. & Breisinger, Clemens & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Jemio, Luis Carlos & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard D. & Verner, Dorte & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2014. "Agriculture, incomes, and gender in Latin America by 2050: An assessment of climate change impacts and household resilience for Brazil, Mexico, and Peru:," IFPRI discussion papers 1390, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Lykke E. Andersen & Dorte Verner & Manfred Wiebelt, 2017. "Gender and Climate Change in Latin America: An Analysis of Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience Based on Household Surveys," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 857-876, October.
    3. Andersen, Lykke E. & Verner , Dorte, 2014. "Impactos sociales del cambio climático en Bolivia: un análisis a nivel municipal de los efectos del cambio climático reciente sobre esperanza de vida, consumo, pobreza y desigualdad," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 22, pages 49-84, Noviembre.
    4. Andersen, Lykke & Busch, Jonah & Curran, Elizabeth & Ledezma, Juan Carlos & Mayorga, Joaquín & Ruiz, Pablo, 2014. "Impactos socioeconómicos y ambientales de compensaciones por la reducción de emisiones de deforestación en Bolivia: resultados del modelo OSIRIS-Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 22, pages 7-48, Noviembre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Science of Climate Change; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Climate Change Economics; Population Policies; Global Environment Facility;

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