Price-induced changes in greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land use: A spatial panel econometric analysis
This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the effects of input and output prices on French GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) at the NUTS2 level. Reduced-form, random-effect spatial error models are estimated for four emissions categories (nitrogen use, manure management, enteric fermentation, and land use, land-use change and forestry) in order to account for both spatial autocorrelation and spatial unobserved heterogeneity. The main findings are: (i) price impacts on emission levels are found to be significant, although sign and magnitude vary from one emission category to the other, (ii) estimated price effects are more apparent when emission categories are analyzed separately rather than aggregated, and (iii) the spatial dimension is found to play an important role. The estimated models are then used to simulate the effects of a doubling of crop prices on AFOLU emissions. The results indicate that this would lead to an 11%-increase in agricultural sources.
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