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Social impacts of climate change in Chile : a municipal level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality

Author

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  • Andersen, Lykke E.
  • Verner, Dorte

Abstract

This paper uses municipality level data to estimate the general relationship between climate, income, and life expectancy in Chile. The analysis finds that incomes are negatively related to temperature, while life expectancy is not significantly related to average temperatures. Both incomes and life expectancy are greater in areas with either very little rain or a lot of rain. The authors use the estimated relationships to simulate the effects of both past (1958-08) and future (2008-58) climate change. The findings indicate that past climate change has been favorable for the central, and most populous, part of Chile, and it has contributed to reduced poverty and reduced inequality of health outcomes. Whereas temperatures in the past have shown a downward trend for most of the Chilean population, climate models suggest that they will increase in the future, and that there will be a reduction in precipitation in the central part of Chile. The analysis simulates the likely effects of these projected climate changes over the next 50 years. The findings suggest that expected future climate will tend to reduce incomes across the whole country, with an average reduction of about 7 percent, all other things equal.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersen, Lykke E. & Verner, Dorte, 2010. "Social impacts of climate change in Chile : a municipal level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5170, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5170
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andersen, Lykke E. & Breisinger, Clemens & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Jemio, Luis Carlos & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard D. & Verner, Dorte & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2014. "Agriculture, incomes, and gender in Latin America by 2050: An assessment of climate change impacts and household resilience for Brazil, Mexico, and Peru:," IFPRI discussion papers 1390, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Andersen, Lykke E. & Verner , Dorte, 2014. "Impactos sociales del cambio climático en Bolivia: un análisis a nivel municipal de los efectos del cambio climático reciente sobre esperanza de vida, consumo, pobreza y desigualdad," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 22, pages 49-84, Noviembre.
    3. Andersen, Lykke & Busch, Jonah & Curran, Elizabeth & Ledezma, Juan Carlos & Mayorga, Joaquín & Ruiz, Pablo, 2014. "Impactos socioeconómicos y ambientales de compensaciones por la reducción de emisiones de deforestación en Bolivia: resultados del modelo OSIRIS-Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 22, pages 7-48, Noviembre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Science of Climate Change; Climate Change Economics; Global Environment Facility; Regional Economic Development;

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