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Les déterminants individuels de la durée du chômage

Listed author(s):
  • Liliane Bonnal
  • Denis Fougère

[eng] Individual determinants of unemployment durations, by Liliane Bonnal, Denis Fougère. From a statistical standpoint, this paper analyzes the effects of individual characteristics on average unemployment durations and the types of duration with competing risks. The results show that time-profiles of specific hazard rates or exit rates from unemployment depend on the destination state [the two options basically being: finding a job, and being removed from the ANPE (National Agency for Employment) lists for not checking in]. Furthermore, the individual factors determining these rates differ from one destination state to another. Variables which influence the instantaneous probability to be hired are demographic (sex, age, citizenship, marital status) and socio-economic (education, job qualifications, socio-professional categories) individual characteristics. [fre] Les déterminants individuels de la durée du chômage, par Liliane Bonnal, Denis Fougère. Cet article analyse, d'un point de vue statistique, les effets des caractéristiques individuelles sur les durées moyennes et les types de durée à risques concurrents. Les résultats font ressortir que les évolutions, avec l'ancienneté en chômage, des probabilités instantanées de sortie dépendent des issues considérées (principalement : reprise d'un emploi et radiation de l'Anpe pour absence de pointage). En outre, les caractéristiques individuelles agissant sur ces probabilités diffèrent selon l'issue. Les variables ayant un effet sur la probabilité instantanée sont des caractéristiques individuelles démographiques (sexe, âge, nationalité, situation familiale) et socio-économiques (formation initiale, qualification, Csp). [ger] Die individuellen Determinanten der Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer, von Liliane Bonnal, Denis Fougère. Dieser Artikel enthält eine statistische Analyse der Auswirkungen der individuellen Charakteristiken auf die durchschnittliche Dauer und die Art der Dauer der Arbeitslosigkeit bei Zusammenwirken mehrerer Risiken. Aus den Ergebnissen geht hervor, daß mit der Zunahme der Dauer der Arbeitslosigkeit die Entwicklungen der kurzfristigen Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Beendigung der Arbeitslosigkeit vom jeweiligen Ausgang abhängig sind (insbesondere Wiederaufnahme einer Beschäftigung und Löschen aus der Arbeitsamtdatei infolge nicht regelmäßigen Erscheinens). Daneben sind die individuellen Charakteristiken, die sich auf diese Wahrscheinlichkeiten auswirken, je nach Ausgang verschieden. Die Variablen, die die kurzfristige Wahrscheinlichkeit beeinflussen, betreffen zum einen die individuellen demographischen Charakteristiken (Geschlecht, Alter, Staatsangehörigkeit, Familienstand) und zum anderen die individuellen sozioökonomischen Charakteristiken (anfängliche Ausbildung, Qualifizierung, Stellung im Erwerbsleben). [spa] Los determinantes individuates de la duración del desempleo, Liliane Bonnal, Denis Fougère. En el presente artículo se analiza, desde un punto de vista estadístico, los efectos de las características individuales sobre las duraciones médias y los tipos de duración de riesgos concurrentes. Los resultados muestran que la evolución, según la duración del desempleo, de las probabilidades instantáneas de terminar con esta situación dependen de las salidas consideradas (principalmente : reintegración al trabajo y baja obligatoria, impuesta por la oficina de trabajo por ausencia de control). Además, las características individuales que intervienen en estas probabilidades difieren según las salidas. Las variables que modifican la probabilidad instantánea son las características individuales demográficas (sexo, edad, nacionalidad, situación familar) y socio-económicas (formación inicial, cualificación, Csp).

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 96 (1990)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 45-82

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1990_num_96_5_5196
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1990.5196
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  1. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
  2. Moffitt, Robert, 1985. "Unemployment insurance and the distribution of unemployment spells," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-101, April.
  3. Lancaster, Tony & Chesher, Andrew, 1983. "An Econometric Analysis of Reservation Wages," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(6), pages 1661-1676, November.
  4. Lynch, Lisa M., 1985. "State dependency in youth unemployment : A lost generation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 71-84, April.
  5. Blau, David M. & Robins, Philip K., 1986. "Job search, wage offers, and unemployment insurance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-197, March.
  6. Clive Bull & Boyan Jovanovic, 1988. "Mismatch Versus Derived-Demand Shift as Causes of Labour Mobility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 169-175.
  7. Narendranathan, Wiji & Nickell, Stephen, 1985. "Modelling the process of job search," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 29-49, April.
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