IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pes/ierequ/v16y2021i2p261-284.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia: counterfactual before-after comparison

Author

Listed:
  • Lucia Svabova

    (University of Zilina, Slovakia)

  • Eva Nahalkova Tesarova

    (University of Zilina, Slovakia)

  • Marek Durica

    (University of Zilina, Slovakia)

  • Lenka Strakova

    (University of Zilina, Slovakia)

Abstract

Research background: The COVID-19 pandemic, which hit the world in the first quarter of 2020, has impacted almost every area of people's lives. Many states have introduced varying degrees of measures to prevent its spread. Most of these measures were, or still are, aimed at reducing or completely stopping the operation of shops and services, or in some cases, also the large manufacturing companies. However, as many companies have failed to cope with these restrictions, unemployment has risen in almost all EU countries. A similar situation was also observed in Slovakia, where the mentioned measures also had a significant impact on unemployment. Purpose of the article: In this study, we deal with the quantification of the impact of a pandemic, or more precisely, anti-pandemic measures, on the development of the registered unemployment rate in Slovakia. Methods: This quantification is based on the counterfactual method of before-after comparison, which is one of the most widely used methods in the field of impact assessments and brings very accurate results, based on real data. In the analysis, we use officially published data on the unemployment rate in Slovakia during the years 2013–2020 on a monthly basis. Such a long time series, using statistical methods of its decomposition and modelling of its trend, will allow predicting the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia, assuming a counterfactual situation of no pandemic, and compare this development with the actual situation that occurred during 2020. Findings & Value added: The study results indicate an increase in the unemployment rate in Slovakia during 2020 by 2–3% compared to the trend of its development, which would have occurred without a pandemic. Given the counterfactual method used, this difference can be described as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of the study can be used in practice in the design and implementation of measures introduced to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic on unemployment and, in the long-term perspective, also to eliminate these effects as much as possible. It can also be used as a theoretical tool in conducting impact assessments, which have so far been carried out very rarely in Slovakia.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucia Svabova & Eva Nahalkova Tesarova & Marek Durica & Lenka Strakova, 2021. "Evaluation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia: counterfactual before-after comparison," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 261-284, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:16:y:2021:i:2:p:261-284
    DOI: 10.24136/eq.2021.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/eq.2021.010
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24136/eq.2021.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carola Binder, 2020. "Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 721-730, October.
    2. Pelucha, Martin & Kveton, Viktor & Potluka, Oto, 2019. "Using mixed method approach in measuring effects of training in firms: Case study of the European Social Fund support," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 146-155.
    3. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    4. Thomas Kruppe & Julia Lang, 2018. "Labour market effects of retraining for the unemployed: the role of occupations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(14), pages 1578-1600, March.
    5. Liu, Chunyan & Wang, Leiheng, 2020. "A formative assessment of gender awareness and ability of staff based on the service programs of the All-China Women's Federation: The case of the “3861 My Home” program," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Kikuchi, Shinnosuke & Kitao, Sagiri & Mikoshiba, Minamo, 2021. "Who suffers from the COVID-19 shocks? Labor market heterogeneity and welfare consequences in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    7. Palomino, Juan C. & Rodríguez, Juan G. & Sebastian, Raquel, 2020. "Wage inequality and poverty effects of lockdown and social distancing in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes & Ettore Gallo, 2021. "Infection Is the Cycle: Unemployment, Output and Economic Policies in the COVID-19 Pandemic," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 377-393, July.
    9. Miroslav Stefanik, 2014. "Estimating treatment effects of a training programme in Slovakia using propensity score matching," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, June.
    10. Choi, Eleanor Jawon & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The long-term effects of labor market entry in a recession: Evidence from the Asian financial crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    11. Baert, Stijn, 2021. "The iceberg decomposition: A parsimonious way to map the health of labour markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 350-365.
    12. Giovanni Cerulli, 2022. "Econometric Evaluation of Socio-Economic Programs," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-662-65945-8, July-Dece.
    13. Choi, Eleanor J. & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 13009, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Frondel, Manuel & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2005. "Evaluating environmental programs: The perspective of modern evaluation research," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 515-526, December.
    15. Jean-Noël Barrot & Basile Grassi & Julien Sauvagnat, 2020. "Estimating the Costs and Benefits of Mandated Business Closures in a Pandemic," Working Papers hal-02896739, HAL.
    16. Nasir Ababulgu Abasimel & Hika Wana Fufa, 2022. "The Horrors of COVID-19 and the Recent Macroeconomy in Ethiopia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 305-320, March.
    17. Mr. Ippei Shibata, 2020. "The Distributional Impact of Recessions: the Global Financial Crisis and the Pandemic Recession," IMF Working Papers 2020/096, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Bargain, Olivier & Aminjonov, Ulugbek, 2021. "Poverty and COVID-19 in Africa and Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    19. Miroslav Štefánik & Katarína Karasová & Ivana Studená, 2020. "Can supporting workplace insertions of unemployed recent graduates improve their long-term employability?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 245-265, May.
    20. Simon Mongey & Laura Pilossoph & Alexander Weinberg, 2021. "Which workers bear the burden of social distancing?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 509-526, September.
    21. Eleanor J. Choi & Jaewoo Choi & Hyelim Son, 2020. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," Working Papers 637, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    22. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 220-237.
    23. Arco-Tirado, J.L. & Fernández-Martín, F. & Ramos-García, A.M. & Littvay, L. & Villoria, J. & Naranjo, J.A., 2018. "A counterfactual impact evaluation of a bilingual program on students’ grade point average at a spanish university," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 81-89.
    24. van der Wielen, Wouter & Barrios, Salvador, 2021. "Economic sentiment during the COVID pandemic: Evidence from search behaviour in the EU," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    25. Vimal Ranchhod & Reza Che Daniels, 2021. "Labour Market Dynamics in South Africa at the Onset of the COVID‐19 Pandemic," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(1), pages 44-62, March.
    26. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Im, Ryonghun & Kunieda, Takuma, 2020. "Asset Bubbles, Unemployment, and a Financial Crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    27. Bonam, Dennis & de Haan, Jakob & van Limbergen, Duncan, 2021. "Time-varying wage Phillips curves in the euro area with a new measure for labor market slack," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 157-171.
    28. Svabova, Lucia & Kramarova, Katarina, 2021. "An analysis of participation factors and effects of the active labour market measure Graduate practice in Slovakia – Counterfactual approach," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    29. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Viet Nguyen, Cuong, 2021. "Gender inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic: Income, expenditure, savings, and job loss," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    30. Ugo Trivellato, 2011. "Fifteen years of labour market regulations and policies in Italy: what have we learned from their evaluation?," Statistica, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna, vol. 71(2), pages 167-187.
    31. Liotti, Giorgio, 2020. "Labour market flexibility, economic crisis and youth unemployment in Italy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 150-162.
    32. Bonam, Dennis & de Haan, Jakob & van Limbergen, Duncan, 2021. "Time-varying wage Phillips curves in the euro area with a new measure for labor market slack," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 157-171.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Iwona Markowicz, 2021. "Risk of Decline in Share Prices of Energy and Fuel Sector on the Warsaw Stock Exchange During the Two Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 977-996.
    2. Bartłomiej Igliński & Michał Bernard Pietrzak & Urszula Kiełkowska & Mateusz Skrzatek & Artur Gajdos & Anas Zyadin & Karthikeyan Natarajan, 2022. "How to Meet the Green Deal Objectives—Is It Possible to Obtain 100% RES at the Regional Level in the EU?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-24, March.
    3. Dominika Gajdosikova & Katarina Valaskova & Tomas Kliestik & Veronika Machova, 2022. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Challenges in the Construction Sector: A Case Study of Slovak Enterprises," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-20, September.
    4. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Iwona Markowicz, 2022. "Changes in Share Prices of Macrosector Companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange as a Reaction to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-18, August.
    5. Jolanta Droždz & Arūnas Burinskas & Viktorija Cohen, 2023. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Revealed Comparative Advantage of Industries in the Baltic States," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Katarina Valaskova & Marek Nagy & Stanislav Zabojnik & George Lăzăroiu, 2022. "Industry 4.0 Wireless Networks and Cyber-Physical Smart Manufacturing Systems as Accelerators of Value-Added Growth in Slovak Exports," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-21, July.
    7. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Krzysztof Dmytrów, 2022. "Assessment of the Similarity of the Situation in the EU Labour Markets and Their Changes in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Anna Manowska & Anna Bluszcz, 2022. "Forecasting Crude Oil Consumption in Poland Based on LSTM Recurrent Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    9. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Iwona Markowicz, 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Situation of the Unemployed in Poland. A Study Using Survival Analysis Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, October.
    10. Olgun Aydin & Bartłomiej Igliński & Krzysztof Krukowski & Marek Siemiński, 2022. "Analyzing Wind Energy Potential Using Efficient Global Optimization: A Case Study for the City Gdańsk in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, April.
    11. Tomas Kliestik & Marek Nagy & Katarina Valaskova, 2023. "Global Value Chains and Industry 4.0 in the Context of Lean Workplaces for Enhancing Company Performance and Its Comprehension via the Digital Readiness and Expertise of Workforce in the V4 Nations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-21, January.
    12. Gajdosikova Dominika & Valaskova Katarina, 2022. "The Impact of Firm Size on Corporate Indebtedness: A Case Study of Slovak Enterprises," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 22(1), pages 63-84, June.
    13. Roman Blazek & Pavol Durana & Jakub Michulek, 2023. "Renaissance of Creative Accounting Due to the Pandemic: New Patterns Explored by Correspondence Analysis," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, March.
    14. Joanna Landmesser, 2021. "The use of the dynamic time warping (DTW) method to describe the COVID-19 dynamics in Poland," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(3), pages 539-556, September.
    15. Mirosława Witkowska-Dąbrowska & Natalia Świdyńska & Agnieszka Napiórkowska-Baryła, 2023. "Reviewing the Situation and Prospects for Developing Small Renewable Energy Systems in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-27, October.
    16. Krzysztof Dmytrow & Beata Bieszk-Stolorz, 2021. "Comparison of changes in the labour markets of post-communist countries with other EU member states," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(4), pages 741-764, December.
    17. Mariusz Zieliński, 2022. "The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Labor Markets of the Visegrad Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    18. Katarina Valaskova & Tomas Kliestik & Dominika Gajdosikova, 2021. "Distinctive determinants of financial indebtedness: evidence from Slovak and Czech enterprises," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(3), pages 639-659, September.
    19. Andrej Privara, 2022. "Economic growth and labour market in the European Union: lessons from COVID-19," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 355-377, June.
    20. Marek Nagy & George Lăzăroiu, 2022. "Computer Vision Algorithms, Remote Sensing Data Fusion Techniques, and Mapping and Navigation Tools in the Industry 4.0-Based Slovak Automotive Sector," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-22, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lucia Svabova & Katarina Kramarova, 2022. "Allowance for School Graduate Practice Performance in Slovakia: Impact Evaluation of the Intervention," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-27, April.
    2. Svabova, Lucia & Kramarova, Katarina, 2021. "An analysis of participation factors and effects of the active labour market measure Graduate practice in Slovakia – Counterfactual approach," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Vanda Almeida & Salvador Barrios & Michael Christl & Silvia Poli & Alberto Tumino & Wouter Wielen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 413-431, September.
    4. Aum, Sangmin & Lee, Sang Yoon (Tim) & Shin, Yongseok, 2021. "Inequality of fear and self-quarantine: Is there a trade-off between GDP and public health?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    5. Segarra-Blasco, Agustí & Teruel, Mercedes & Cattaruzzo, Sebastiano, 2021. "The economic reaction to non-pharmaceutical interventions during Covid-19," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 592-608.
    6. Lucia Švábová & Katarína Kramárová & Marek Ďurica, 2021. "Evaluation of the Effects of the Graduate Practice in Slovakia: Comparison of Results of Counterfactual Methods," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(4), pages 1-31.
    7. Atolia, Manoj & Papageorgiou, Chris & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2021. "Re-opening after the lockdown: Long-run aggregate and distributional consequences of COVID-19," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. Kugler, Maurice & Viollaz, Mariana & Duque, Daniel & Gaddis, Isis & Newhouse, David & Palacios-Lopez, Amparo & Weber, Michael, 2023. "How did the COVID-19 crisis affect different types of workers in the developing world?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    9. Lucia Svabova & Katarina Kramarova & Barbora Gabrikova, 2022. "Counterfactual Assessment of the Allowance for School-leaver Practice Performance as a Measure of Active Labour Market Policy in Slovakia," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(2), pages 99-123, February.
    10. Elena-Loreni Baciu, 2022. "Employment Outcomes of Higher Education Graduates from during and after the 2007–2008 Financial Crisis: Evidence from a Romanian University," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-30, September.
    11. Hoshi, Kisho & Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Makioka, Ryo & Suzuki, Michio & Tanaka, Satoshi, 2022. "The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 on labor markets: People’s movement and non-pharmaceutical interventions," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. Mask, Joshua, 2023. "Salary history bans and healing scars from past recessions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Islamaj,Ergys & Le,Duong Trung & Mattoo,Aaditya, 2021. "Lives versus Livelihoods during the COVID-19 Pandemic : How Testing Softens the Trade-off," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9696, The World Bank.
    14. Burzyński, Michał & Machado, Joël & Aalto, Atte & Beine, Michel & Goncalves, Jorge & Haas, Tom & Kemp, Françoise & Magni, Stefano & Mombaerts, Laurent & Picard, Pierre & Proverbio, Daniele & Skupin, A, 2021. "COVID-19 crisis management in Luxembourg: Insights from an epidemionomic approach," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    15. Putra, Rendra A.A. & Ovsiannikov, Kostiantyn & Kotani, Koji, 2023. "COVID-19-associated income loss and job loss: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    16. Kisho Hoshi & Hiroyuki Kasahara & Ryo Makioka & Michio Suzuki & Satoshi Tanaka, 2021. "Trade-off between job losses and the spread of COVID-19 in Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 683-716, October.
    17. Yeonho Bae & Taehoon Kim, 2023. "The labor market impacts of graduating from university during a recession: evidence and mechanisms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 931-958, February.
    18. Etienne Farvaque & Hira Iqbal & Nicolas Ooghe, 2020. "Health politics? Determinants of US states’ reactions to COVID-19," Post-Print hal-03128875, HAL.
    19. Simionescu, Mihaela & Raišienė, Agota Giedrė, 2021. "A bridge between sentiment indicators: What does Google Trends tell us about COVID-19 pandemic and employment expectations in the EU new member states?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    20. Joshua Mask, 2022. "How Increased Labor Demand at the Start of Your Career Can Improve Long Run Outcomes," DETU Working Papers 2201, Department of Economics, Temple University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; labour market; COVID-19; counterfactual evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:16:y:2021:i:2:p:261-284. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adam P. Balcerzak (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibgtopl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.