IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pes/ieroec/v12y2021i3p539-556.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The use of the dynamic time warping (DTW) method to describe the COVID-19 dynamics in Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Joanna Landmesser

    (Warsaw University of Life Sciences – SGGW, Poland)

Abstract

Research background: In recent times, the whole world has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The influence of the epidemic on the society and the economy has caused a great deal of scientific interest. The development of the pandemic in many countries was analyzed using various models. However, the literature on the dissemination of COVID-19 lacks econometric analyzes of the development of this epidemic in Polish voivodeships. Purpose of the article: The aim of the study is to find similarities in time series for infected with and those who died of COVID-19 in Polish voivodeships using the method of dynamic time warping. Methods: The dynamic time warping method allows to calculate the distance between two time series of different lengths. This feature of the method is very important in our analysis because the coronavirus epidemic did not start in all voivodeships at the same time. The dynamic time warping also enables an adjustment of the timeline to find similar, but shifted, phases. Using this method, we jointly analyze the number of infected and deceased people in each province. In the next step, based on the measured similarity of the time series, the voivodeships are grouped hierarchically. Findings & value added: We use the dynamic time warping to identify groups of voivodeships affected by the epidemic to a different extent. The classification performed may be useful as it indicates patterns of the COVID-19 disease evolution in Polish voivodeships. The results obtained at the regional level will allow better prediction of future infections. Decision makers should formulate further recommendations for lockdowns at the local level, and in the long run, adjust the medical infrastructure in the regions accordingly. Policymakers in other countries can benefit from the findings by shaping their own regional policies accordingly.

Suggested Citation

  • Joanna Landmesser, 2021. "The use of the dynamic time warping (DTW) method to describe the COVID-19 dynamics in Poland," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(3), pages 539-556, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:ieroec:v:12:y:2021:i:3:p:539-556
    DOI: 10.24136/oc.2021.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/oc.2021.018
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24136/oc.2021.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Pavel Kotyza & Irena Benešová & Adriana Laputková, 2020. "Shaking Stability: COVID-19 Impact on the Visegrad Group Countries’ Financial Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Tadeusz Kufel, 2020. "ARIMA-based forecasting of the dynamics of confirmed Covid-19 cases for selected European countries," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 181-204, June.
    3. Giorgino, Toni, 2009. "Computing and Visualizing Dynamic Time Warping Alignments in R: The dtw Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 31(i07).
    4. Zbigniew Korzeb & Pawel Niedziolka, 2020. "Resistance of commercial banks to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of Poland," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 205-234, June.
    5. Pedro Pardal & Rui Dias & Petr Suler & Nuno Teixeira & Tomas Krulicky, 2020. "Integration in Central European capital markets in the context of the global COVID-19 pandemic," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(4), pages 627-650, December.
    6. Lucia Svabova & Eva Nahalkova Tesarova & Marek Durica & Lenka Strakova, 2021. "Evaluation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia: counterfactual before-after comparison," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 261-284, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Krzysztof Dmytrów, 2022. "Assessment of the Similarity of the Situation in the EU Labour Markets and Their Changes in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Iwona Markowicz, 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Situation of the Unemployed in Poland. A Study Using Survival Analysis Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Krzysztof Dmytrów & Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Joanna Landmesser-Rusek, 2022. "Sustainable Energy in European Countries: Analysis of Sustainable Development Goal 7 Using the Dynamic Time Warping Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-17, October.
    4. Krzysztof Dmytrow & Beata Bieszk-Stolorz, 2021. "Comparison of changes in the labour markets of post-communist countries with other EU member states," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(4), pages 741-764, December.
    5. Lolea Iulian Cornel & Stamule Simona, 2021. "Trading using Hidden Markov Models during COVID-19 turbulences," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 16(4), pages 334-351, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrej Privara, 2022. "Economic growth and labour market in the European Union: lessons from COVID-19," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 355-377, June.
    2. Andriy Stavytskyy & Ganna Kharlamova & Olena Komendant & Jarosław Andrzejczak & Joanna Nakonieczny, 2021. "Methodology for Calculating the Energy Security Index of the State: Taking into Account Modern Megatrends," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Marcin Bogdański, 2021. "Employment Diversification as a Determinant of Economic Resilience and Sustainability in Provincial Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-13, April.
    4. Katarina Valaskova & Tomas Kliestik & Dominika Gajdosikova, 2021. "Distinctive determinants of financial indebtedness: evidence from Slovak and Czech enterprises," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(3), pages 639-659, September.
    5. Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene & Julius Kviklis, 2021. "Assessing the reaction of the Baltic stock market to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 25(1), pages 260-272, November.
    6. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Iwona Markowicz, 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Situation of the Unemployed in Poland. A Study Using Survival Analysis Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, October.
    7. Krzysztof Dmytrow & Beata Bieszk-Stolorz, 2021. "Comparison of changes in the labour markets of post-communist countries with other EU member states," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(4), pages 741-764, December.
    8. Magdalena Osińska & Wojciech Zalewski, 2023. "Vulnerability and resilience of the road transport industry in Poland to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 331-354, February.
    9. Węgrzyn Grażyna, 2023. "Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the transition of people on the Polish labor market – hidden threats," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 59(2), pages 168-179, June.
    10. Martin Hála & Radka MacGregor Pelikánová & Filip Rubáček, 2024. "Negative Determinants of CSR Support by Generation Z in Central Europe: Gender-Sensitive Impacts of Infodemic in 'COVID-19' Era," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(2), pages 89-115.
    11. Nana Liu & Zeshui Xu & Marinko Skare, 2021. "The research on COVID-19 and economy from 2019 to 2020: analysis from the perspective of bibliometrics," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 217-268, June.
    12. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Iwona Markowicz, 2021. "Risk of Decline in Share Prices of Energy and Fuel Sector on the Warsaw Stock Exchange During the Two Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 977-996.
    13. Dominika Gajdosikova & Katarina Valaskova & Tomas Kliestik & Veronika Machova, 2022. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Challenges in the Construction Sector: A Case Study of Slovak Enterprises," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-20, September.
    14. Pollák František & Vavrek Roman & Váchal Jan & Markovič Peter & Konečný Michal, 2021. "Analysis of Digital Customer Communities in terms of their interactions during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 16(2), pages 134-151, June.
    15. Loredana Mihalca & Lucia Ratiu & Gabriela Brendea & Daniel Metz & Mihaela Dragan & Florin Dobre, 2021. "Exhaustion while teleworking during COVID-19: a moderated-mediation model of role clarity, self-efficacy, and task interdependence," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 269-306, June.
    16. Lolea Iulian Cornel & Stamule Simona, 2021. "Trading using Hidden Markov Models during COVID-19 turbulences," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 16(4), pages 334-351, December.
    17. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Iwona Markowicz, 2022. "Changes in Share Prices of Macrosector Companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange as a Reaction to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-18, August.
    18. Dorota Zebrowska-Suchodolska & Andrzej Karpio & Krzysztof Kompa, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic: Stock Markets Situation in European Ex-Communist Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 1106-1128.
    19. Amato, Umberto & Antoniadis, Anestis & De Feis, Italia & Goude, Yannig & Lagache, Audrey, 2021. "Forecasting high resolution electricity demand data with additive models including smooth and jagged components," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 171-185.
    20. Mastroeni, Loretta & Mazzoccoli, Alessandro & Quaresima, Greta & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2021. "Decoupling and recoupling in the crude oil price benchmarks: An investigation of similarity patterns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; coronavirus; regional analysis; dynamic time warping; clustering;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pes:ieroec:v:12:y:2021:i:3:p:539-556. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adam P. Balcerzak (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibgtopl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.