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Forecasting the Economic impact of an industrial stoppage using a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model

Author

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  • Glyn Wittwer

    () (Monash University)

  • Peter Dixon

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulations can provide estimates of the economy-wide effects of industrial stoppages. Such estimates could be used in broad discussions of the contribution to economic welfare of improved industrial relations. They could also be used in narrowly focussed discussions, e.g. in the Australian Industrial Relations Commission in a determination under the Workplace Relations Act of the economic damage associated with a specific stoppage. An attractive feature of CGE simulation is that it can capture relevant details of particular circumstances. We illustrate this with a CGE analysis of the effects of a hypothetical stoppage in the Victorian non-residential construction industry. As explained in the paper, our simulation results reflect explicit assumptions about the nature of the industry in which the stoppage occurs, the wage adjustment process and the state of the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Glyn Wittwer & Peter Dixon, 2004. "Forecasting the Economic impact of an industrial stoppage using a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 7(1), pages 39-51, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:7:y:2004:i:1:p:39-51
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anh T. Le & Paul W. Miller, 2000. "An Evaluation of Inertia Models of Unemployment," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 33(3), pages 205-220.
    2. Russell Ross & Peter Saunders, 1990. "The Labour Supply Behaviour of Single Mothers and Married Mothers in Australia," Discussion Papers 0019, University of New South Wales, Social Policy Research Centre.
    3. Hersch, Joni & Stratton, Leslie S, 1994. "Housework, Wages, and the Division of Housework Time for Employed Spouses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 120-125.
    4. Harris, Mark N, 1996. "Modelling the Probability of Youth Unemployment in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(217), pages 118-129, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rodriguez, U-Primo E., 2007. "State-of-the-Art in Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modelling with a Case Study of the Philippines," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 20(1).
    2. Giesecke, James A. & Madden, John R., 2013. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
    3. L. J. Perry, 2005. "A Long-Term Perspective On Industrial Disputes In Australia: 1913–2003," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 24(3), pages 263-279, September.
    4. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2003. "State-level Dynamic CGE Modeling for Forecasting and Policy Analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-82, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium Models Dispute Resolution; Strikes; Arbitration; and Mediation (collective bargaining) Labor-Management Relations; Trade Unions; and Collective Bargaining; Public Policy Macroeconomics; Consumption; Saving; Production; Employment; and Investment; Forecasting and Simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • J52 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Dispute Resolution: Strikes, Arbitration, and Mediation
    • J58 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Public Policy
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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