IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mup/actaun/2022.012.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What Drives the Agricultural Growth in Azerbaijan? Insights from Autometrics with Super Saturation

Author

Listed:
  • Fakhri J. Hasanov

    (Energy and Macroeconomics Department, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, P.O. Box 88550, Riyadh 11672, Saudi Arabia
    Research Program on Forecasting, Economics Department, The George Washington University, 2115 G Street, NW, Washington, DC 20052, USA
    Modeling Socio-economic Processes, Institute of Control Systems, 9 Bakhtiyar Vahabzadeh, Baku 1141, Azerbaijan)

  • Elchin Suleymanov

    (Department of Finance, Baku Engineering University, Hasan Aliyev 120, AZ0101, Khirdalan, Azerbaijan
    The Institute of Economics, Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, H. Javid pr., 115, AZ1001, Baku, Azerbaijan)

  • Heyran Aliyeva

    (Energy and Macroeconomics Department, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, P.O. Box 88550, Riyadh 11672, Saudi Arabia)

  • Hezi Eynalov

    (Department of Economics, Baku Engineering University, Hasan Aliyev 120, AZ0101, Khirdalan, Azerbaijan)

  • Sa'd Shannak

    (Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute, Researchery (HBKU Research Complex), Education City, P.O. Box 34110, Doha, Qatar
    Texas A&M University, Water Management and Hydrological Science, College Station - Texas, USA. 77840)

Abstract

The development of the agricultural sector is essential for any economy, including Azerbaijan, the largest economy in the South Caucasus, as it plays an important role in food security, rural development, and environmental protection. For Azerbaijan, as an oil-dependent economy, it is also important for diversification of the non-oil sector. For this reason, the Azerbaijani government has adopted several programs and materialized massive investments to promote agricultural growth. This study examines the role of the production factors in the development of the sector using annual time series data for the period 1995-2017. Econometric analysis, mainly Autometrics - a cutting edge machine learning modeling algorithm- with super saturation, and Growth Accounting lead us to conclude that: (i) land, labor, and capital have statistically significant positive long-run impacts on agriculture output; (ii) the growth of the sector and the contributions of land and capital formation slowed down sharply, while the contributions of total factor productivity (TFP) and labor increased in 2009-2017 compared to the pre-2009 period; (iii) in the pre-2009 period, the sector's growth was hugely contributed by capital followed by TFP, labor and land; (iv) in 2009-2017 period, TFP followed by capital and labor contributed to the sector's growth, while the contribution of land was negative. The results are robust to different econometric methods and specifications. Overall, policymakers are recommended to consider that value-added and other key indicators of agriculture have grown less in 2009-2017 period compared to the pre-2009 period, given that one should expect more growth in the former period as numerous government programs and massive investments were materialized. They may also consider that the contributions of labor and land were quite small and negative, respectively. Lastly, policies leading to TFP growth should be supported.

Suggested Citation

  • Fakhri J. Hasanov & Elchin Suleymanov & Heyran Aliyeva & Hezi Eynalov & Sa'd Shannak, 2022. "What Drives the Agricultural Growth in Azerbaijan? Insights from Autometrics with Super Saturation," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 147-174.
    • Handle: RePEc:mup:actaun:2022.012
    DOI: 10.11118/actaun.2022.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://acta.mendelu.cz/doi/10.11118/actaun.2022.012.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://acta.mendelu.cz/doi/10.11118/actaun.2022.012.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.11118/actaun.2022.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Castle Jennifer L. & Doornik Jurgen A & Hendry David F., 2011. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, February.
    3. Horowitz, John K. & Gottlieb, Jessica, 2010. "The Role of Agriculture in Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Economic Brief 138910, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Nicholas Oulton, 2016. "The Mystery of TFP," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 31, pages 68-87, Fall.
    5. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    6. Gregory C. Reinsel & Sung K. Ahn, 1992. "Vector Autoregressive Models With Unit Roots And Reduced Rank Structure:Estimation. Likelihood Ratio Test, And Forecasting," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 353-375, July.
    7. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Enders, Walter & Lee, Junsoo, 2012. "The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 196-199.
    9. Fuentes, J. Rodrigo & Morales, Marco, 2011. "On The Measurement Of Total Factor Productivity: A Latent Variable Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 145-159, April.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    11. Antle, John M, 1983. "Infrastructure and Aggregate Agricultural Productivity: International Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(3), pages 609-619, April.
    12. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    13. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2010. "Renewable energy consumption and growth in Eurasia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1392-1397, November.
    14. Anindya Banerjee & Juan Dolado & Ricardo Mestre, 1998. "Error‐correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single‐equation Framework," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 267-283, May.
    15. Acs, Zoltan J. & Estrin, Saul & Mickiewicz, Tomasz & Szerb, László, 2014. "The Continued Search for the Solow Residual: The Role of National Entrepreneurial Ecosystem," IZA Discussion Papers 8652, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2017. "A new approach to testing unemployment hysteresis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1253-1280, November.
    17. Zhang, Wei & Yang, Shuyun, 2013. "The influence of energy consumption of China on its real GDP from aggregated and disaggregated viewpoints," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 76-81.
    18. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    19. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    20. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Sbia, Rashid & Afza, Talat, 2015. "The effect of urbanization, affluence and trade openness on energy consumption: A time series analysis in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 683-693.
    21. Perron, P, 1993. "Erratum [The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis]," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 248-249, January.
    22. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," Working Papers 2021-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    23. Block, Steven & Timmer, C Peter, 1994. "Agriculture and Economic Growth: Conceptual Issues and the Kenyan Experience," Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID) Papers 294430, Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government.
    24. Ram, Rati, 1986. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidencefrom Cross-Section and Time-Series Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 191-203, March.
    25. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    26. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    27. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    28. Susan M. Collins & Barry P. Bosworth, 1996. "Economic Growth in East Asia: Accumulation versus Assimilation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 135-204.
    29. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    30. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    31. Loann David Denis Desboulets, 2018. "A Review on Variable Selection in Regression Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-27, November.
    32. Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2012. "A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(4), pages 574-599, August.
    33. Harberger, Arnold C, 1998. "A Vision of the Growth Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 1-32, March.
    34. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679, Decembrie.
    35. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T., 2007. "Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 482-489, May.
    36. Robert Evenson & Germano Mwabu, 2001. "The Effect of Agricultural Extension on Farm Yields in Kenya," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23.
    37. Sickles,Robin C. & Zelenyuk,Valentin, 2019. "Measurement of Productivity and Efficiency," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107687653, Enero-Abr.
    38. Diewert, W E, 1992. "The Measurement of Productivity," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 163-198, July.
    39. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    40. Muhammad Zahir Faridi & Ghulam Murtaza, 2013. "Disaggregate Energy Consumption, Agricultural Output and Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 493-516.
    41. Robert M. Solow, 1955. "The Production function and the Theory of Capital," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 23(2), pages 101-108.
    42. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    43. Loann D. Desboulets, 2018. "A Review on Variable Selection in Regression Analysis," AMSE Working Papers 1852, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    44. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    45. Charles I. Jones & Paul M. Romer, 2010. "The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 224-245, January.
    46. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472, Elsevier.
    47. Reda Cherif & Mr. Rabah Arezki, 2010. "Development Accounting and the Rise of TFP," IMF Working Papers 2010/101, International Monetary Fund.
    48. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2006. "Can China contribute more to the fight against global warming?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 837-846, November.
    49. Valentin Zelenyuk, 2014. "Testing Significance of Contributions in Growth Accounting, with Application to Testing ICT Impact on Labor Productivity of Developed Countries," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 13(2), pages 115-126, December.
    50. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 641-647, September.
    51. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    52. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2007. "The relationship between energy and production: Evidence from Turkish manufacturing industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1151-1165, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vusal Gasimli & Ramil Huseyn & Rashad Huseynov, 2024. "What Advantages Arise from the Shift Towards Sustainable Energy Sources in Resource-Rich Economies? Empirical Insights from Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 12-20, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Lester C. Hunt & Ceyhun I. Mikayilov, 2016. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand in Azerbaijan Using Cointegration Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-31, December.
    3. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Muhammad Javid & Frederick L. Joutz, 2022. "Saudi Non-Oil Exports before and after COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, February.
    4. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Marzio Galeotti & Fakhri J. Hasanov, 2018. "The Impact of Economic Growth on CO2 Emissions in Azerbaijan," IEFE Working Papers 102, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Aliyev, Ruslan & Taskin, Dilvin & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2023. "Oil rents and non-oil economic growth in CIS oil exporters. The role of financial development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Sabuhi Yusifov & Khatai Aliyev & Samra Talishinskaya, 2019. "The role of social and physical infrastructure spending in tradable and non-tradable growth," Contemporary Economics, Vizja University, vol. 13(1), March.
    7. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Noha Razek, 2023. "Oil and Non-Oil Determinants of Saudi Arabia’s International Competitiveness: Historical Analysis and Policy Simulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-39, June.
    8. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    9. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-056 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.
    12. Sugra Humbatova & Afag Huseyn & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2023. "Impact of Oil Factor on Investment: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 129-148, March.
    13. Sahbi Farhani & Anissa Chaibi & Christophe Rault, 2014. "A study of CO2 emissions, output,energy consumption, and trade," Working Papers 2014-56, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    14. Durmaz, Tunç & Pommeret, Aude & Tastan, Hüseyin, 2020. "Estimation of residential electricity demand in Hong Kong under electricity charge subsidies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. Hasanov, Fakhri & Huseynov, Fariz, 2013. "Bank credits and non-oil economic growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 597-610.
    16. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Trivariate causality between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in Angola: Cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 876-884.
    17. Farhani, Sahbi & Chaibi, Anissa & Rault, Christophe, 2014. "CO2 emissions, output, energy consumption, and trade in Tunisia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 426-434.
    18. repec:ipg:wpaper:201415 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-582 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Fakhri Hasanov & Fuad Mammadov & Nayef Al-Musehel, 2018. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Economic Growth," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, April.
    21. Banerjee, Piyali & Arčabić, Vladimir & Lee, Hyejin, 2017. "Fourier ADL cointegration test to approximate smooth breaks with new evidence from Crude Oil Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 114-124.
    22. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    23. Jafari Samimi, Ahmad & Ghaderi, Saman & Sanginabadi, Bahram, 2012. "The Effects of Openness and Globalization on Inflation: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach," MPRA Paper 52407, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mup:actaun:2022.012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivo Andrle (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://mendelu.cz/en/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.