IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mbr/jmonec/v8y2013i3p117-150.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Impacts of Export Barriers in a Dynamic CGE Model

Author

Listed:
  • Haqiqi , Iman

    (University of Economic Sciences)

  • Bahalou Horeh , Marziyeh

    (University of Isfahan)

Abstract

A large economic literature discusses the implications of export sanctions for a variety of states around the world. This paper investigates the macro-level consequences of imposing oil export barriers on an oil exporting country. We employ a large real financial computable general equilibrium for Iran. The model is calibrated based on 1999 Social Accounting Matrix for the economy of Iran including 112 commodities and 47 activities. We find that the impact of a 50% negative shock in oil export would amount to a 4.6% reduction in GDP, a 6.8% fall in private consumption, a 20.2% cut in government spending, a 20.4% decrease in import, a 9.9% contraction in capital formation, and a +29.2% increase in non-oil export. We also find that there is a conflict between government benefits and national benefit. Our sensitivity analysis proves the robustness of the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Haqiqi , Iman & Bahalou Horeh , Marziyeh, 2013. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Export Barriers in a Dynamic CGE Model," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(3), pages 117-150, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:117-150
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-117-en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-117-en.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jingliang Xiao & Glyn Wittwer, 2009. "Will an Appreciation of the Renminbi Rebalance the Global Economy? A Dynamic Financial CGE Analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-192, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra, 1984. "Voluntary Export Restraint in U.S. Autos, 1980-81: Quality, Employment, and Welfare Effects," NBER Chapters, in: The Structure and Evolution of Recent US Trade Policy, pages 35-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Andriamananjara, Soamiely & Dean, Judith M. & Feinberg, Robert & Ferrantino, Michael J. & Ludema, Rodney & Tsigas, Marinos E., 2004. "The Effects of Non-Tariff Measures on Prices, Trade, and Welfare: CGE Implementation of Policy-Based Price Comparisons," Working Papers 15863, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
    4. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2015. "The impact of UN and US economic sanctions on GDP growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 110-125.
    5. Jafarey, Saqib & Lahiri, Sajal, 2002. "Will trade sanctions reduce child labour?: The role of credit markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 137-156, June.
    6. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    7. P. A. Black & H. Cooper, 1987. "On the Welfare and Employment Effects of Economic Sanctions," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 55(1), pages 1-8, March.
    8. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    9. Rutherford, Thomas F, 1999. "Applied General Equilibrium Modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS Subsystem: An Overview of the Modeling Framework and Syntax," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(1-2), pages 1-46, October.
    10. Springer, Katrin, 1999. "Climate policy and trade: Dynamics and the steady-state assumption in a multi-regional framework," Kiel Working Papers 952, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Lemelin, André & Robichaud, Véronique & Decaluwé, Bernard, 2013. "Endogenous current account balances in a world CGE model with international financial assets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 146-160.
    12. Dursun Peksen & A. Cooper Drury, 2010. "Coercive or Corrosive: The Negative Impact of Economic Sanctions on Democracy," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 240-264, August.
    13. Marco Fugazza & Jean-Christophe Maur, 2008. "Non-Tariff Barriers In Computable General Equilibrium Modelling," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 38, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    14. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550.
    15. Harrison, Glenn & Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & DEC, 1994. "Product standards, imperfect competition and completion of the market in the European Union," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1293, The World Bank.
    16. Graham Pyatt, 1999. "Some Relationships between T-Accounts, Input-Output Tables and Social Accounting Matrices," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 365-387.
    17. Robinson, Sherman, 1991. "Macroeconomics, financial variables, and computable general equilibrium models," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(11), pages 1509-1525, November.
    18. P. A. Black & J. H. Cooper, 1987. "On the Welfare and Employment Effects of Economic Sanctions: Reply," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 55(3), pages 196-197, September.
    19. Gibbons, E. & Garfield, R., 1999. "The impact of economic sanctions on health and human rights in Haiti, 1991-1994," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 89(10), pages 1499-1504.
    20. Dursun Peksen, 2009. "Better or Worse? The Effect of Economic Sanctions on Human Rights," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(1), pages 59-77, January.
    21. Li, Meng & Yang, Liang, 2012. "Rigid wage-setting and the effect of a supply shock, fiscal and monetary policies on Chinese economy by a CGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1858-1869.
    22. Daponte, B.O. & Garfield, R., 2000. "The effect of economic sanctions on the mortality of Iraqi children prior to the 1991 Persian Gulf War," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 90(4), pages 546-552.
    23. Pereira, Alfredo M. & Shoven, John B., 1988. "Survey of dynamic computational general equilibrium models for tax policy evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 401-436.
    24. Chemingui, Mohamed Abdelbasset & Dessus, Sébastien, 2008. "Assessing non-tariff barriers in Syria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 917-928.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Haqiqi, Iman & Yasharel, Sepideh, 2018. "Removing Fossil Fuel Subsidies to Help the Poor," MPRA Paper 95907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Aghababaei, Mohammad Ebrahim, 2019. "General Equilibrium Resource Elasticity in an Open Resource-Abundant Economy," MPRA Paper 97851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Haqiqi, Iman & Manzoor, Davood, 2012. "Environmental Impacts of Phasing out Energy Subsidies," MPRA Paper 95688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    4. Haqiqi, Iman & Bahalou, Marziyeh & Hamidi, Razieh, 2014. "Measurement and Evaluation of Equality of Opportunity: A Numerical Look at Education, Health, and Income Inequality," MPRA Paper 95866, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2016. "The impact of US sanctions on poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 110-119.
    2. Onialisoa Mirana Rakotoarivelo & Hanitriniaina Sammy Gr´egoire Ravelonirina, 2019. "On the Dynamic of Country Development," Journal of Mathematics Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2015. "Always Affecting the Wrong People? The Impact of US Sanctions on Poverty," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201510, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Haqiqi, Iman & Bahador, Ali, 2015. "Investigating Economic Effects of Oil Export Reduction: A Financial Computable General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 95784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2022. "The impact of the Russian Aggression against Ukraine on the Russia-EU Trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 599-616.
    6. Chen, Yin E. & Fu, Qiang & Zhao, Xinxin & Yuan, Xuemei & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2019. "International sanctions’ impact on energy efficiency in target states," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-34.
    7. Moteng, Ghislain & Raghutla, Chandrashekar & Njangang, Henri & Nembot, Luc Ndeffo, 2023. "International sanctions and energy poverty in target developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    8. Zhai, Fan, 2007. "Armington Meets Melitz: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity in Global CGE Model of Trade," Conference papers 331646, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2020. "Precision-guided or blunt? The effects of US economic sanctions on human rights," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 161-182, October.
    10. Antonis Adam & Sofia Tsarsitalidou, 2019. "Do sanctions lead to a decline in civil liberties?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 180(3), pages 191-215, September.
    11. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2015. "The impact of UN and US economic sanctions on GDP growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 110-125.
    12. Haider A. Khan, 2007. "Social Accounting Matrices(SAMs) and CGE Modeling:Using Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Models for Assessing Poverty Impact of Structural Adjustment Policies," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-463, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    13. Haider A. Khan, 2007. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty Reduction in General Equilibrium: The Role of Labor Market Structure," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-462, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    14. Jun Wen & Xinxin Zhao & Quan-Jing Wang & Chun-Ping Chang, 2021. "The impact of international sanctions on energy security," Energy & Environment, , vol. 32(3), pages 458-480, May.
    15. Sedrakyan, Gohar Samvel, 2022. "Ukraine war-induced sanctions against Russia: Consequences on transition economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 863-885.
    16. Dizaji, S.F. & Lis, P. & Murshed, S.M. & Zweiri, M., 2020. "What the political economy literature tells us about blockades and sanctions," ISS Working Papers - General Series 130655, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    17. Marco Fugazza, 2013. "The Economics Behind Non-Tariff Measures: Theoretical Insights And Empirical Evidence," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 57, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    18. Zafar Iqbal & Rizwana Siddiqui, 2001. "Critical Review of Literature on Computable General Equilibrium Models," MIMAP Technical Paper Series 2001:09, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    19. Fehr, Hans & Wiegard, Wolfgang, 1996. "Numerische Gleichgewichtsmodelle: Grundstruktur, Anwendungen und Erkenntnisgehalt," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 75, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    20. Jin Mun Jeong, 2020. "Economic sanctions and income inequality: impacts of trade restrictions and foreign aid suspension on target countries," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(6), pages 674-693, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    export barriers; government spending; capital formation; Computable General Equilibrium; Social Accounting Matrix;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E16 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Social Accounting Matrix

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:117-150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. E. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mbcbiir.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.