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Felsőoktatási expanzió, "diplomás munkanélküliség" és a diplomák piaci értéke
[Expansion of higher education, graduate unemployment and the market value of a degree]

Author

Listed:
  • Kertesi, Gábor
  • Köllő, János

Abstract

A magyar felsőoktatásnak a kilencvenes években végbement hirtelen bővülése sokakban keltett aggodalmat: vajon az expanzió nem vezet-e tömeges "túlképzéshez", azaz növekvő munkanélküliséghez a fiatal diplomások vagy az általuk kiszorított csoportok körében és/vagy a diplomához kapcsolódó kereseti előny süllyedéséhez? A tanulmány koréves vagy korcsoportos, illetve foglalkozási bontású adatok segítségével vizsgálja az esetleges túlképzés tüneteit 1995 és 2004 között. Az elemzés a Foglalkoztatási Hivatal bértarifa-felvételének és a KSH munkaerő-felvételének koréves, illetve foglalkozási szinten összekapcsolt adatbázisain nyugszik és a 2003 végéig (foglalkoztatás), illetve 2004 májusáig (bérek) terjedő időszakra vonatkozik. 2000ig óriási mértékben nőtt az újonnan szerzett főiskolai és egyetemi diplomák piaci értéke, ezt követően azonban a növekedés lelassult, majd a pályakezdő diplomások kereseti előnye csökkent. Ugyanakkor az adatok nem igazolják sem a diplomás munkanélküliséggel, sem a kiszorítási hatásokkal kapcsolatos aggodalmakat. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: I21, J21, J31, J44, J45.

Suggested Citation

  • Kertesi, Gábor & Köllő, János, 2006. "Felsőoktatási expanzió, "diplomás munkanélküliség" és a diplomák piaci értéke [Expansion of higher education, graduate unemployment and the market value of a degree]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 201-225.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:825
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brunello, Giorgio & Comi, Simona Lorena & Lucifora, Claudio, 2000. "The College Wage Gap in 10 European Countries: Evidence from Two Cohorts," IZA Discussion Papers 228, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. John Micklewright & Gyula Nagy, 1999. "The Informational Value of Job Search Data and the Dynamics of Search Behaviour: Evidence from Hungary," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 9901, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Csillag, István, 2009. "Van-e visszaút?. A gazdasági növekedés tényezőit felemésztő koraszülött jóléti állam [Is there any way out?. How a premature welfare state feeds on the factors conducive to economic growth]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 648-672.
    2. Szabó, Péter András & Elek, Péter, 2013. "A közszférából történő munkaerő-kiáramlás elemzése Magyarországon [An analysis of the labour outflow from the public sector in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 601-628.
    3. Vékás, Péter, 2015. "Az egyéni munkaerő-piaci aktivitás becslése mikroszimulációs modellkeretben [Estimating individual labor market activity in Hungary in a microsimulation framework]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1291-1308.
    4. Megyeri, Krisztina & Berlinger, Edina, 2015. "Mélyszegénységből a felsőoktatásba [From deep poverty to higher education]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 674-699.
    5. Horn, Dániel & Gurzó, Klára, 2015. "A korai iskolai szelekció hosszú távú hatása. Egy közpolitikai kísérlet tanulságai [The long-term effects of early educational selection. A quasi-natural policy experiment from Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1070-1096.
    6. Karoly Fazekas & Gabor Kezdi (ed.), 2007. "The Hungarian Labour Market 2007," The Hungarian Labour Market Yearbooks, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, number 2007, December.
    7. Gábor R., István, 2008. "A hiányzó láncszem? Életpálya-keresetek és keresetingadozás [The missing link? Experience-earnings profiles and earnings fluctuation]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1057-1074.
    8. Hermann, Zoltán & Horváth, Hedvig, 2022. "Tanári eredményesség és tanár-diák összepárosítás az általános iskolákban. Empirikus mintázatok három magyarországi tankerület adatai alapján [Teacher effectiveness and teacher-student matching in ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1377-1406.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J44 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Professional Labor Markets and Occupations
    • J45 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Public Sector Labor Markets

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