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A közszférából történő munkaerő-kiáramlás elemzése Magyarországon
[An analysis of the labour outflow from the public sector in Hungary]

Author

Listed:
  • Szabó, Péter András
  • Elek, Péter

Abstract

A tanulmányban a KSH munkaerő-felmérésének 1998 és 2010 közötti, valamint az ONYF járulékfizetési adatbázisának 2000 és 2006 közötti mikroszintű paneladatai alapján vizsgáljuk a közszférát elhagyók számát, összetételét és későbbi munkapiaci viselkedését. Megállapítjuk, hogy a közszféra versenyszférához képest megfigyelt nagyobb stabilitása abból adódik, hogy mind a munkanélküliségbe, mind a más ágazatba és munkakörbe történő kilépés valószínűsége mintegy fele a versenyszférában megfigyeltnek. Az inaktivitásba (például nyugdíjba) áramlás intenzitása ugyanakkor nem különbözik érdemben a két szektor között. A munkahelyüket elvesztők újraelhelyezkedési esélyeit a Jenkins-féle diszkrét idejű hazárdmodellel vizsgálva azt találjuk, hogy a közszférabeli állást elvesztők (modellspecifikációtól függően) 5-25 százalékkal kisebb intenzitással - azaz átlagosan körülbelül ennyivel több idő alatt - találnak újra munkát, mint a versenyszféra állásvesztői. Magasabb képzettségi szinteken azonban ez a különbség eltűnik. A közszférából a versenyszférába váltók - az iskolázottság kiszűrése után - nem kerülnek szignifikánsan nagyobb eséllyel végzettségüknél rosszabb munkakörbe, mint versenyszférán belül váltó társaik. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C41, J45, J62, J64.

Suggested Citation

  • Szabó, Péter András & Elek, Péter, 2013. "A közszférából történő munkaerő-kiáramlás elemzése Magyarországon [An analysis of the labour outflow from the public sector in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 601-628.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1389
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
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    3. Kertesi, Gábor & Köllő, János, 2006. "Felsőoktatási expanzió, "diplomás munkanélküliség" és a diplomák piaci értéke [Expansion of higher education, graduate unemployment and the market value of a degree]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 201-225.
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    5. Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor, 2013. "Kiszorítják-e az idősebb munkavállalók a fiatalokat a közszférában?. Eredmények a magyarországi nyugdíjkorhatár-emelés időszakából [Do older employees crowd out younger?. Evidence from Hungary in a," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 837-864.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J45 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Public Sector Labor Markets
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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