IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v45y1999i10p1289-1306.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Planning Electric Power Systems Under Demand Uncertainty with Different Technology Lead Times

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas T. Gardner

    (Algorithmics Inc., 185 Spadina Avenue, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5T 2C6)

  • J. Scott Rogers

    (Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5S 1A4)

Abstract

Demand uncertainty is a key concern of electric utility planners. While the greater use of short lead time technologies provides one possible way to deal with this problem, it is not clear how they are best deployed. The approach taken in this paper is to examine a capacity mix model that explicitly accounts for differences in technology lead times. Key results that are obtained include the characterization of the optimal solution and the development of a new set of technology screening criteria. In practice, the "lead time order" (i.e., the set of available technologies ordered by ascending length of lead time) is typically the inverse of the so-called merit order (i.e., the set of available technologies ordered by ascending operating cost). We show that for this case, the optimal solution may be determined with relative ease. A numerical example demonstrates that some short lead time technologies screened out by standard planning methods may enter the optimal solution when differences in lead time are considered, while some long lead time technologies may leave. In addition, the optimal expected level of reliability may be greater.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas T. Gardner & J. Scott Rogers, 1999. "Planning Electric Power Systems Under Demand Uncertainty with Different Technology Lead Times," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1289-1306, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:45:y:1999:i:10:p:1289-1306
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.45.10.1289
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.45.10.1289
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.45.10.1289?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albert Madansky, 1960. "Inequalities for Stochastic Linear Programming Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(2), pages 197-204, January.
    2. Gardner, Douglas T., 1996. "Flexibility in electric power planning: Coping with demand uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 21(12), pages 1207-1218.
    3. James E. Smith & Robert F. Nau, 1995. "Valuing Risky Projects: Option Pricing Theory and Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(5), pages 795-816, May.
    4. Hung-po Chao, 1983. "Peak Load Pricing and Capacity Planning with Demand and Supply Uncertainty," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(1), pages 179-190, Spring.
    5. Kleindorfer, Paul R & Fernando, Chitru S, 1993. "Peak-Load Pricing and Reliability under Uncertainty," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23, March.
    6. George Stigler, 1939. "Production and Distribution in the Short Run," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47, pages 305-305.
    7. Nissan Levin & Asher Tishler & Jacob Zahavi, 1985. "Capacity Expansion of Power Generation Systems with Uncertainty in the Prices of Primary Energy Resources," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 175-187, February.
    8. H. D. Sherali & A. L. Soyster & F. H. Murphy & S. Sen, 1984. "Intertemporal Allocation of Capital Costs in Electric Utility Capacity Expansion Planning Under Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(1), pages 1-19, January.
    9. Elizabeth Olmsted Teisberg, 1994. "An Option Valuation Analysis of Investment Choices by a Regulated Firm," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(4), pages 535-548, April.
    10. Fred Mobasheri & Lowell H. Orren & Fereidoon P. Sioshansi, 1989. "Scenario Planning at Southern California Edison," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 19(5), pages 31-44, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Malischek, Raimund & Trüby, Johannes, 2016. "The future of nuclear power in France: an analysis of the costs of phasing-out," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 908-921.
    2. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wenbin Wang & Mark E. Ferguson & Shanshan Hu & Gilvan C. Souza, 2013. "Dynamic Capacity Investment with Two Competing Technologies," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 616-629, October.
    2. Mier, Mathias, 2021. "Efficient pricing of electricity revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Ambec, Stefan & Crampes, Claude, 2012. "Electricity provision with intermittent sources of energy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 319-336.
    4. Klaus Eisenack & Mathias Mier, 2019. "Peak-load pricing with different types of dispatchability," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 105-124, December.
    5. Correia-da-Silva, João & Soares, Isabel & Fernández, Raquel, 2020. "Impact of dynamic pricing on investment in renewables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    6. Yang, Liu & Dong, Ciwei & Wan, C.L. Johnny & Ng, Chi To, 2013. "Electricity time-of-use tariff with consumer behavior consideration," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 402-410.
    7. Steffen, Bjarne & Weber, Christoph, 2013. "Efficient storage capacity in power systems with thermal and renewable generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 556-567.
    8. Fred Schroyen & Adekola Oyenuga, 2011. "Optimal pricing and capacity choice for a public service under risk of interruption," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 252-272, June.
    9. Tchai Tavor & Limor Dina Gonen & Uriel Spiegel, 2019. "Optimal Pricing and Capacity Under Well-Defined and Well-Known Deterministic Demand Fluctuations," Review of European Studies, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Shanshan Hu & Gilvan C. Souza & Mark E. Ferguson & Wenbin Wang, 2015. "Capacity Investment in Renewable Energy Technology with Supply Intermittency: Data Granularity Matters!," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 480-494, October.
    11. Alfredo Garcia & Juan Alzate & Jorge Barrera, 2012. "Regulatory design and incentives for renewable energy," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 315-336, June.
    12. Dina Mohamed Yousri, 2011. "The Egyptian Electricity Market: Designing a Prudent Peak Load Pricing Model," Working Papers 29, The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology.
    13. Olsina, Fernando & Pringles, Rolando & Larisson, Carlos & Garcés, Francisco, 2014. "Reliability payments to generation capacity in electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 211-224.
    14. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    15. Arnd Huchzermeier & Christoph H. Loch, 2001. "Project Management Under Risk: Using the Real Options Approach to Evaluate Flexibility in R...D," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 85-101, January.
    16. Neetzow, Paul, 2021. "The effects of power system flexibility on the efficient transition to renewable generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    17. Chao, Hung-po, 2011. "Efficient pricing and investment in electricity markets with intermittent resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3945-3953, July.
    18. Mathias Mier, 2018. "Policy Implications of a World with Renewables, Limited Dispatchability, and Fixed Load," Working Papers V-412-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2018.
    19. Choi, Hyun-Woo & Kim, In Joon & Kim, Tong Suk, 2002. "Contingent claims valuation of optional calling plan contracts in telephone industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 433-448.
    20. Dina Mohamed YOUSRI, 2016. "The Egyptian Electricity Market: Designing a Prudent Peak Load Pricing System," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 677-682, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:45:y:1999:i:10:p:1289-1306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.