Optimization of power plant investments under uncertain renewable energy development paths - A multistage stochastic programming approach
Electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES-E) is supposed to increase signi ficantly within the coming decades. However, uncertainty about the progress of necessary infrastructure investments, public acceptance and cost developments of renewable energies renders the achievement of political plans uncertain. Implementation risks of renewable energy targets are challenging for investment planning, because di fferent RES-E shares fundamentally change the optimal mix of dispatchable power plants. Speci cally, uncertain future RES-E deployment paths induce uncertainty about the steepness of the residual load duration curve and the hourly residual load structure. In this paper, we show how uncertain future RES-E penetrations impact the electricity system and try to quantify eff ects for the Central European power market. We use a multi-stage stochastic investment and dispatch model to analyze e ffects on investment choices, electricity generation and system costs. Our main findings include that the uncertain achievement of RES-E targets signi ficantly effects optimal investment decisions. First, a higher share of technologies with a medium capital/operating cost ratio is cost-efficient. Second, the value of storage units in systems with high RES-E penetrations might decrease. Third, in the case of the Central European power market, costs induced by the implementation risk of renewable energies seem to be rather small compared to total system costs.
|Date of creation:||09 May 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Vogelsanger Str. 321, Alte Wagenfabrik, 50827 Köln|
Phone: ++ 49 (0) 221 277 29 100
Fax: ++ 49 (0) 221 277 29 400
Web page: http://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nagl, Stephan & Fürsch, Michaela & Jägemann, Cosima & Bettzüge, Marc Oliver, 2011. "The economic value of storage in renewable power systems - the case of thermal energy storage in concentrating solar plants," EWI Working Papers 2011-8, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
- Fabien A. Roques & William J. Nuttall & David M. Newbery & Richard de Neufville & Stephen Connors, 2006.
"Nuclear Power: A Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-24.
- Roques, F.A. & Nuttall, W.J. & Newbery, D.M. & de Neufville, R., 2005. "Nuclear Power: a Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0555, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Gardner, Douglas T., 1996. "Flexibility in electric power planning: Coping with demand uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 21(12), pages 1207-1218.
- De Jonghe, Cedric & Delarue, Erik & Belmans, Ronnie & D'haeseleer, William, 2011. "Determining optimal electricity technology mix with high level of wind power penetration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(6), pages 2231-2238, June.
- George B. Dantzig, 1955. "Linear Programming under Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(3-4), pages 197-206, 04-07.
- Weigt, Hannes, 2009. "Germany's wind energy: The potential for fossil capacity replacement and cost saving," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 1857-1863, October.
- Weigt, Hannes, 2008. "Germany’s Wind Energy: The Potential for Fossil Capacity Replacement and Cost Saving," MPRA Paper 65659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lamont, Alan D., 2008. "Assessing the long-term system value of intermittent electric generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1208-1231, May. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)