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Capacity Expansion of Power Generation Systems with Uncertainty in the Prices of Primary Energy Resources

Author

Listed:
  • Nissan Levin

    (Faculty of Management, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel)

  • Asher Tishler

    (Faculty of Management, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel)

  • Jacob Zahavi

    (Faculty of Management, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel)

Abstract

In capacity expansion studies of power generation systems, the uncertainty in the prices of the primary energy resources is a major concern. The approach presented in this paper accounts for this uncertainty by mapping the probability distribution of the installed capacity for any given distribution of the fuel prices. Given the probability density function and the cumulative distribution of the installed capacity, a variety of performance measures is derived, including the expected value, the mode, and the variance of the installed capacity, and the expected total costs. Results are obtained analytically for a 2-unit system using a breakeven point analysis approach to find the optimal mix for any given set of fuel prices under the assumption of normally distributed primary energy prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Nissan Levin & Asher Tishler & Jacob Zahavi, 1985. "Capacity Expansion of Power Generation Systems with Uncertainty in the Prices of Primary Energy Resources," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 175-187, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:31:y:1985:i:2:p:175-187
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.31.2.175
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Madlener, Reinhard & Kumbaroglu, Gurkan & Ediger, Volkan S., 2005. "Modeling technology adoption as an irreversible investment under uncertainty: the case of the Turkish electricity supply industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 139-163, January.
    2. MADLENER Reinhard & KUMBAROĞLU Gurkan EDIGER Volkan S., "undated". "Technology Adoption Modelling in Situations of Irreversible Investments under Uncertainty: The Case of the Turkish Electricity Supply Industry," EcoMod2003 330700092, EcoMod.
    3. Choi, Dong Gu & Thomas, Valerie M., 2012. "An electricity generation planning model incorporating demand response," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 429-441.
    4. Gal, Nurit & Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, C.K., 2017. "Fuel cost uncertainty, capacity investment and price in a competitive electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 233-240.
    5. Douglas T. Gardner & J. Scott Rogers, 1999. "Planning Electric Power Systems Under Demand Uncertainty with Different Technology Lead Times," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1289-1306, October.
    6. Zhou, P. & Ang, B.W. & Poh, K.L., 2006. "Decision analysis in energy and environmental modeling: An update," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2604-2622.
    7. Soloveitchik, David & Ben-Aderet, Nissim & Grinman, Mira & Lotov, Alexander, 2002. "Multiobjective optimization and marginal pollution abatement cost in the electricity sector - An Israeli case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 571-583, August.

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