IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/ijefaa/v11y2019i7p129.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of Current Account Balance in Six ASEAN Countries: A Panel Analysis Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Soo Xin Lin
  • Jerome Kueh

Abstract

This paper aims to examine the potential determinants of current account balance, which has been an interesting research topic in analysis over the decade. The relationship between current account balance and several different variables, such as fiscal balance, public debt, real GDP, and age dependency ratio for old and young, are examined. In this paper, the selected time period is from 1990 to 2016, in order to include the financial crisis period in six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam). To this end, the research is based on the estimation of panel unit root, panel cointegration, panel Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM) and panel Granger causality. The findings show that all variables are cointegrated in the long-run and there are also unidirectional and bidirectional causal relationships in the short-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Soo Xin Lin & Jerome Kueh, 2019. "Determinants of Current Account Balance in Six ASEAN Countries: A Panel Analysis Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(7), pages 129-129, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:11:y:2019:i:7:p:129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/download/0/0/39858/40918
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/0/39858
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gudmundsson, Gudmundur S. & Zoega, Gylfi, 2014. "Age structure and the current account," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 183-186.
    2. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-1078, September.
    3. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    4. Calderon Cesar Augusto & Chong Alberto & Loayza Norman V., 2002. "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-33, March.
    5. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
    6. Alberto Bagnai, 2010. "Twin deficits in CEEC economies: evidence from panel unit root tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1071-1081.
    7. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    8. Kalou, Sofia & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2012. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 230-241.
    9. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    10. Elena Makrevska – Disovska & Marija Trpkova - Nestorovska, 2015. "Factors Affecting Current Account In The Republic Of Macedonia," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 45-56, December.
    11. Seyma Caliskan Cavdar & Alev Dilek Aydin, 2015. "A Different Perspective for Current Account Deficit Issue on Some OECD Member Countries: A Binary Panel Logit Approach," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(3), pages 14-22, September.
    12. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    13. Neaime, Simon, 2015. "Twin deficits and the sustainability of public debt and exchange rate policies in Lebanon," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 127-143.
    14. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    15. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2008. "Short-Term Determinants of Current Account Deficits: Evidence from Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 24-42, January.
    16. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
    17. Ramón Moreno, 2008. "Experiences with Current Account Deficits in Southeast Asia," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 14, pages 537-582, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Gehringer, Agnieszka, 2012. "Another look at the determinants of current account imbalances in the European Union: An empirical assessment," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 142, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    19. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    20. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
    21. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    22. Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Guy Debelle, 1996. "What Determines the Current Account? a Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 1996/058, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    24. Evan Lau & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Twin deficits in Cambodia: An Empirical Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2783-2794.
    25. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2007. "Short- And Medium-Term Determinants Of Current Account Balances In Middle East And North Africa Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp862, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    26. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    27. Sophocles Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & Christos Papazoglou & Nicholas Tsaveas & Melina Vasardani, 2013. "The determinants of current account imbalances in the euro area: a panel estimation approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 299-319, August.
    28. Evan Lau & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Twin deficits in Cambodia: Are there Reasons for Concern? An Empirical Study," Monash Economics Working Papers 11-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    29. Jonida Bollano, 2015. "Current Account Determinants in Central Eastern European Countries," IHEID Working Papers 22-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    30. Kim, Jaehoon & Kim, Sangsin, 2015. "2012년 국회법 개정의 효과 연구 [A Study on the Effect of the 2012 National Assembly Act Amendment]," KDI Research Monographs, Korea Development Institute (KDI), volume 127, number v:2015-03(k):y:2015:p:1-1.
    31. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    32. Lauridsen, Laurids S., 1998. "The financial crisis in Thailand: Causes, conduct and consequences?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1575-1591, August.
    33. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan Carlos Aquino & N. R. Ramírez-Rondán, 2020. "Estimating factor shares from nonstationary panel data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2353-2380, May.
    2. Evan Lau & Xiao-Hui Chye & Chee-Keong Choong, 2011. "Energy-Growth Causality: Asian Countries Revisited," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 140-149.
    3. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 531-550, October.
    4. Chuku Chuku & Atan Johnson & Obioesio Felix & Onye Kenneth, 2017. "Working Paper 287 - Current Account Adjustments and Integration in West Africa," Working Paper Series 2407, African Development Bank.
    5. Alessandro Bellocchi & Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2021. "What drives TFP long-run dynamics in five large European economies?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 569-595, July.
    6. BADALYAN, Gohar & HERZFELD, Thomas & RAJCANIOVA, Miroslava, 2014. "Transport Infrastructure And Economic Growth: Panel Data Approach For Armenia, Georgia And Turkey," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 17(2), pages 1-10, October.
    7. Karmaker, Shamal Chandra & Hosan, Shahadat & Chapman, Andrew J. & Saha, Bidyut Baran, 2021. "The role of environmental taxes on technological innovation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    8. Jahanger, Atif & Hossain, Mohammad Razib & Usman, Muhammad & Chukwuma Onwe, Joshua, 2023. "Recent scenario and nexus between natural resource dependence, energy use and pollution cycles in BRICS region: Does the mediating role of human capital exist?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Jayaraman, T.K. & Lau, Evan, 2009. "Does external debt lead to economic growth in Pacific island countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 272-288.
    10. Herzer, Dierk & Vollmer, Sebastian, 2013. "Rising top incomes do not raise the tide," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 504-519.
    11. Omri, Anis, 2018. "Entrepreneurship, sectoral outputs and environmental improvement: International evidence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 46-55.
    12. Edmore Mahembe & Nicholas Mbaya Odhiambo, 2019. "Foreign aid, poverty and economic growth in developing countries: A dynamic panel data causality analysis," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1626321-162, January.
    13. Kais Saidi & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2021. "The link between environmental quality, economic growth, and energy use: new evidence from five OPEC countries," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 3-20, March.
    14. Acikgoz, Senay & Ben Ali, Mohamed Sami, 2019. "Where does economic growth in the Middle Eastern and North African countries come from?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 172-183.
    15. Pedro Teles & Harald Uhlig & João Valle e Azevedo, 2016. "Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 442-464, March.
    16. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Yoichi Matsubayashi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2009. "Empirical analysis of import demand behavior of least developed countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1443-1458.
    18. Betty Daniel & Christos Shiamptanis, 2008. "Fiscal Policy in the European Monetary Union," Discussion Papers 08-11, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    19. Liu, Xuyi & Zhang, Shun & Bae, Junghan, 2017. "The nexus of renewable energy-agriculture-environment in BRICS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 489-496.
    20. Kahia, Montassar & Ben Aissa, Mohamed Safouane, 2014. "Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries," MPRA Paper 80776, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:11:y:2019:i:7:p:129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.