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Bail-In or Bail-Out? Correlation Networks to Measure the Systemic Implications of Bank Resolution

Author

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  • Paolo Giudici

    (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Laura Parisi

    (European Central Bank, 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)

Abstract

We propose a statistical measure, based on correlation networks, to evaluate the systemic risk that could arise from the resolution of a failing or likely-to-fail financial institution, under three alternative scenarios: liquidation, private recapitalization, or bail-in. The measure enhances the observed CDS spreads with a risk premium that derives from contagion effects across financial institutions. The empirical findings reveal that the recapitalization of a distressed bank performed by the other banks in the system and the bail-in resolution minimize the potential losses for the banking sector with respect to the liquidation scenario, thus posing limited systemic risks. A closer comparison between the private intervention recapitalization and the bail-in tool shows that the latter slightly reduces contagion effects with respect to the private intervention scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Giudici & Laura Parisi, 2019. "Bail-In or Bail-Out? Correlation Networks to Measure the Systemic Implications of Bank Resolution," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:7:y:2019:i:1:p:3-:d:195087
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Borri, Nicola & Giorgio, Giorgio di, 2022. "Systemic risk and the COVID challenge in the european banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
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    3. Y'erali Gandica & Sophie B'ereau & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2019. "A multilevel analysis to systemic exposure: insights from local and system-wide information," Papers 1910.08611, arXiv.org.

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