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Graphical Network Models for International Financial Flows

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  • P. Giudici
  • A. Spelta

Abstract

The late-2000s financial crisis stressed the need to understand the world financial system as a network of countries, where cross-border financial linkages play a fundamental role in the spread of systemic risks. Financial network models, which take into account the complex interrelationships between countries, seem to be an appropriate tool in this context. To improve the statistical performance of financial network models, we propose to generate them by means of multivariate graphical models. We then introduce Bayesian graphical models, which can take model uncertainty into account, and dynamic Bayesian graphical models, which provide a convenient framework to model temporal cross-border data, decomposing the model into autoregressive and contemporaneous networks. The article shows how the application of the proposed models to the Bank of International Settlements locational banking statistics allows the identification of four distinct groups of countries, that can be considered central in systemic risk contagion.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Giudici & A. Spelta, 2016. "Graphical Network Models for International Financial Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 128-138, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:34:y:2016:i:1:p:128-138
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2015.1017643
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rui Faustino, 2016. "Portuguese National Accounts: a network approach," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/18, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Paolo Giudici & Laura Parisi, 2016. "CoRisk: measuring systemic risk through default probability contagion," DEM Working Papers Series 116, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    3. repec:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:12:p:1995-2008 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Buse, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie, 2019. "Measuring connectedness of euro area sovereign risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44.
    5. repec:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:3:p:95-:d:169274 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:finsta:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:96-119 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Paolo Giudici & Shatha Hashem, 2015. "Systemic risk of Islamic Banks," DEM Working Papers Series 103, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Tanya Ara'ujo & Rui Faustino, 2016. "The Topology of Inter-industry Relations from the Portuguese National Accounts," Papers 1612.06291, arXiv.org.
    9. Roy Cerqueti & Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi, 2018. "Systemic risk assessment through high order clustering coefficient," Papers 1810.13250, arXiv.org.
    10. repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0354-x is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Paolo Giudici & Peter Sarlin & Alessandro Spelta, 2016. "The multivariate nature of systemic risk: direct and common exposures," DEM Working Papers Series 118, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    12. Abedifar, Pejman & Giudici, Paolo & Hashem, Shatha Qamhieh, 2017. "Heterogeneous market structure and systemic risk: Evidence from dual banking systems," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 96-119.
    13. repec:eee:finlet:v:28:y:2019:i:c:p:309-318 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Khai X. Chiong & Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2017. "Estimation of Graphical Models using the $L_{1,2}$ Norm," Papers 1709.10038, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2017.
    15. repec:eee:stapro:v:136:y:2018:i:c:p:160-164 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi & Asmerilda Hitaj, 2018. "Asset allocation: new evidence through network approaches," Papers 1810.09825, arXiv.org.
    17. Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi & Asmerilda Hitaj, 2019. "Smart network based portfolios," Papers 1907.01274, arXiv.org.
    18. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Giudici, Paolo & Hadji-Misheva, Branka, 2019. "Latent factor models for credit scoring in P2P systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 522(C), pages 112-121.
    19. Paolo Giudici & Laura Parisi, 2015. "Modeling Systemic Risk with Correlated Stochastic Processes," DEM Working Papers Series 110, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    20. Frank Emmert-Streib & Aliyu Musa & Kestutis Baltakys & Juho Kanniainen & Shailesh Tripathi & Olli Yli-Harja & Herbert Jodlbauer & Matthias Dehmer, 2017. "Computational Analysis of the structural properties of Economic and Financial Networks," Papers 1710.04455, arXiv.org.

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