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Structural changes in cross-border liabilities: a multidimensional approach

  • Tanya Araùjo

    ()

    (ISEG – Technical University of Lisbon & UECE Lisbon)

  • Alessandro Spelta

    ()

    (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia)

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    We study the international interbank market through a geometric analysis of empirical data. The geometric analysis of the time series of cross-country liabilities shows that the systematic information of the interbank international market is contained in a space of small dimension. Geometric spaces of financial relations across countries are developed, for which the space volume, multivariate skewness and multivariate kurtosis are computed. The behavior of these coefficients reveals an important modification acting in the financial linkages since 1997 and allows to relate the shape of the geometric space that emerges in the last years to the globally turbulent period that has characterized financial systems since the latest Nineties. Here we show that, besides a persistent decrease in the volume of the geometric space since 1997, the observation of a generalized increase in the values of the multivariate skewness and kurtosis sheds some light on the behavior of cross-border interdependencies during periods of financial crises. This was found to occur in such a systematic fashion, that these coefficients may be used as a proxy for systemic risk.

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    File URL: http://economia.unipv.it/docs/dipeco/quad/ps/RePEc/pav/demwpp/DEMWP0050.pdf
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    Paper provided by University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management in its series DEM Working Papers Series with number 050.

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    Length: 21 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0050
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    1. Vilela Mendes, R. & Araújo, Tanya & Louçã, Francisco, 2003. "Reconstructing an economic space from a market metric," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 323(C), pages 635-650.
    2. Alessandro Spelta & Tanya Araujo, 2012. "Interlinkages and structural changes in cross-border liabilities: a network approach," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/19, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
    3. Rosario N. Mantegna, 1998. "Hierarchical Structure in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/9802256, arXiv.org.
    4. Tanya Araujo & Francisco Louçã, 2007. "The Seismography of Crashes in Financial Markets," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/05, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
    5. Kimmo Soramaki & Morten L. Bech & Jeffrey Arnold & Robert J. Glass & Walter Beyeler, 2006. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Staff Reports 243, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Zhao, Yi & Konishi, Sadanori, 1997. "Limit distributions of multivariate kurtosis and moments under Watson rotational symmetric distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 291-299, March.
    7. Spelta, Alessandro & Araújo, Tanya, 2012. "The topology of cross-border exposures: Beyond the minimal spanning tree approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5572-5583.
    8. Tanya Araujo & Francisco Louca, 2007. "The geometry of crashes. A measure of the dynamics of stock market crises," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 63-74.
    9. Garratt, Rodney & Mahadeva, Lavan & Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna, 2011. "Mapping systemic risk in the international banking network," Bank of England working papers 413, Bank of England.
    10. Javier A. Reyes & Camelia Minoiu, 2011. "A Network Analysis of Global Banking:1978-2009," IMF Working Papers 11/74, International Monetary Fund.
    11. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
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