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The Seismography of Crashes in Financial Markets

  • Tanya Araujo
  • Francisco Louçã

This paper investigates the dynamics of stocks in the S&P500 for the last 33 years, considering the population of all companies present in the index for the whole period. Using a stochastic geometry tech- nique and defining a robust index of the dynamics of the market struc- ture, which is able to provide information about the intensity of the crises, the paper proposes a seismographic classification of the crashes that occurred during the period. The index is used in order to inves- tigate and to classify the impact of the twelve crashes between July 1973 and March 2006 and to discuss the available evidence of change of structure after the fin de sicle.

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File URL: http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~depeco/wp/wp052007.pdf
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Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2007/05.

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Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp52007
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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  1. Stanley, H.E & Amaral, L.A.N & Gopikrishnan, P & Ivanov, P.Ch & Keitt, T.H & Plerou, V, 2000. "Scale invariance and universality: organizing principles in complex systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 281(1), pages 60-68.
  2. Tanya Araujo & Francisco Louca, 2007. "The geometry of crashes. A measure of the dynamics of stock market crises," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 63-74.
  3. Stanley, H.Eugene & Nunes Amaral, Luis A. & Gabaix, Xavier & Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran & Plerou, Vasiliki, 2001. "Quantifying economic fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 302(1), pages 126-137.
  4. Stanley, H.E & Amaral, L.A.N & Gopikrishnan, P & Plerou, V, 2000. "Scale invariance and universality of economic fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 31-41.
  5. Stanley, H.Eugene, 2003. "Statistical physics and economic fluctuations: do outliers exist?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 318(1), pages 279-292.
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