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How Fama Went Wrong: Measures of Multivariate Kurtosis for the Identification of the Dynamics of a N-Dimensional Market

Listed author(s):
  • Tanya Ara\'ujo
  • Jo\~ao Dias
  • Samuel Eleut\'erio
  • Francisco Lou\c{c}\~a
Registered author(s):

    This paper investigates the common intuition suggesting that during crises the shape of the financial market clearly differentiates from that of random walk processes. In this sense, it challenges the analysis of the nature of financial markets proposed by Fama and his associates. For this, a geometric approach is proposed in order to define the patterns of change of the market and a measure of multivariate kurtosis is used in order to test deviations from multinormality. The emergence of crises can be measured in this framework, using all the available information about the returns of the stocks under consideration and not only the index representing the market.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1207.1202
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    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1207.1202.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2012
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1207.1202
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    2. Javed Iqbal & Robert Brooks & Don Galagedera, 2010. "Multivariate tests of asset pricing: simulation evidence from an emerging market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 381-395.
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    4. Tanya Araujo & Francisco Louca, 2007. "The geometry of crashes. A measure of the dynamics of stock market crises," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 63-74.
    5. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2009. "Finite sample multivariate tests of asset pricing models with coskewness," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2008-2021, April.
    6. Robert JARROW & Andrew RUDD, 2008. "Approximate Option Valuation For Arbitrary Stochastic Processes," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 1, pages 9-31 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Marie-Claude Beaulieu, 2003. "Exact Skewness-Kurtosis Tests for Multivariate Normality and Goodness-of-Fit in Multivariate Regressions with Application to Asset Pricing Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 891-906, December.
    8. Norbert Henze, 2002. "Invariant tests for multivariate normality: a critical review," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 467-506, October.
    9. Tanya Araujo & Francisco Louçã, 2007. "The Seismography of Crashes in Financial Markets," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/05, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
    10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Variable selection, estimation and inference for multi-period forecasting problems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 173-187, September.
    11. Christine A. Brown & David M. Robinson, 2002. "Skewness and Kurtosis Implied by Option Prices: A Correction," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 279-282.
    12. Henze, Norbert & Wagner, Thorsten, 1997. "A New Approach to the BHEP Tests for Multivariate Normality," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, July.
    13. Srivastava, M. S., 1984. "A measure of skewness and kurtosis and a graphical method for assessing multivariate normality," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(5), pages 263-267, October.
    14. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2005. "Tests for Skewness, Kurtosis, and Normality for Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 49-60, January.
    15. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1993. "A Test for Multivariate Normality in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(2), pages 295-321, April.
    16. Klar, Bernhard, 2002. "A Treatment of Multivariate Skewness, Kurtosis, and Related Statistics," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 141-165, October.
    17. V. Plerou & P. Gopikrishnan & X. Gabaix & L. A. N. Amaral & H. E. Stanley, 2001. "Price fluctuations, market activity and trading volume," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 262-269.
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