IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i11p2984-d559290.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investigating the Effects of the United States’ Economic Slowdown Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic on Energy Consumption in Other Countries—A Global Vector Autoregressive Model

Author

Listed:
  • Sailan Hu

    (School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, China)

  • Rongrong Li

    (School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, China)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a drop-in economic activity and energy consumption of the United States. This work aims to investigate the spillover effects of the United States’ COVID-19 economic recession on economic growth and energy consumption in other nations using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach and quarterly data between 1990 and 2013 from 41 major countries/regions. On the one hand, the simulation results indicate that the US COVID-19 recession has a negative impact on other countries’ economic growth through trade ties, reducing the economic growth of other countries, especially for countries which have a close trade relationship with the US. In addition, the spillover effects of the US economic recession have different impacts on other countries’ energy consumption. Countries with the closest trade ties to the US are most affected, such as Japan and China. In addition, the impact of the US’ economic shock on energy consumption in developing countries is significant in the short term, while its impact on developed countries is significant in the long term. On the other hand, the simulation results of energy spillover effects indicate a reduction in US energy consumption slightly reduces economic growth in other nations. In addition, a reduction in energy consumption in the US does not have a significant negative impact on energy consumption in other developed countries. Furthermore, the spillover effect of declining energy consumption in the US on energy consumption in developing countries is significant in the short term. However, the spillover effects of falling energy consumption in the US on developing countries are different. The spillover effect of the decline in energy consumption in the US causes a slight decline in energy consumption in China and Brazil, whereas the spillover effect of the decline in energy consumption in the US does not cause a decline in energy consumption in India and Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Sailan Hu & Rongrong Li, 2021. "Investigating the Effects of the United States’ Economic Slowdown Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic on Energy Consumption in Other Countries—A Global Vector Autoregressive Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-25, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:11:p:2984-:d:559290
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/11/2984/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/11/2984/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Streimikiene, Dalia & Kasperowicz, Rafał, 2016. "Review of economic growth and energy consumption: A panel cointegration analysis for EU countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1545-1549.
    2. Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2016. "Bayesian GVAR with k-endogenous dominants & input–output weights: Financial and trade channels in crisis transmission for BRICs," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-26.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    4. Zhang, Xing-Ping & Cheng, Xiao-Mei, 2009. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2706-2712, August.
    5. Esseghir, Asma & Haouaoui Khouni, Leila, 2014. "Economic growth, energy consumption and sustainable development: The case of the Union for the Mediterranean countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 218-225.
    6. Karanfil, Fatih, 2009. "How many times again will we examine the energy-income nexus using a limited range of traditional econometric tools?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1191-1194, April.
    7. Belke, Ansgar & Dobnik, Frauke & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 782-789, September.
    8. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    9. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199650460, Decembrie.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    11. Hondroyiannis, George & Lolos, Sarantis & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2002. "Energy consumption and economic growth: assessing the evidence from Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 319-336, July.
    12. Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2000. "The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 615-625, December.
    13. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zakaria, Muhammad & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2018. "The energy consumption and economic growth nexus in top ten energy-consuming countries: Fresh evidence from using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 282-301.
    14. Wang, Qiang & Wang, Lili, 2020. "Renewable energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: A nonlinear panel data analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    15. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Minou, Chrysanthi, 2015. "System estimation of GVAR with two dominants and network theory: Evidence for BRICs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 604-616.
    16. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Bolduc, Denis & Yameogo, Nadège-Désirée, 2011. "A pseudo-panel data model of household electricity demand," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 315-325, January.
    17. Ozili, Peterson & Arun, Thankom, 2020. "Spillover of COVID-19: Impact on the Global Economy," MPRA Paper 99317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Carmona, Mónica & Congregado, Emilio & Feria, Julia & Iglesias, Jesús, 2017. "The energy-growth nexus reconsidered: Persistence and causality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 342-347.
    19. Kahouli, Bassem, 2017. "The short and long run causality relationship among economic growth, energy consumption and financial development: Evidence from South Mediterranean Countries (SMCs)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 19-30.
    20. Zhimin Peng & Qunqi Wu, 2020. "Evaluation of the relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, and CO2 emissions in China’ transport sector: the FMOLS and VECM approaches," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(7), pages 6537-6561, October.
    21. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
    22. B. T. Ewing & M. J. Piette & J. E. Payne, 2004. "Correction," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 557-557, September.
    23. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Central America: Evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 211-216.
    24. Kais Saidi & Sami Hammami, 2016. "Economic growth, energy consumption and carbone dioxide emissions: recent evidence from panel data analysis for 58 countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 361-383, January.
    25. Goodell, John W., 2020. "COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    26. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    27. Wang, Qiang & Han, Xinyu, 2021. "Is decoupling embodied carbon emissions from economic output in Sino-US trade possible?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    28. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chien, Mei-Se, 2010. "Dynamic modelling of energy consumption, capital stock, and real income in G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 564-581, May.
    29. Jamiu Adetola Odugbesan & Husam Rjoub, 2020. "Relationship Among Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, CO2 Emission, and Urbanization: Evidence From MINT Countries," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, April.
    30. Michelle Graff & Sanya Carley, 2020. "COVID-19 assistance needs to target energy insecurity," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 5(5), pages 352-354, May.
    31. Heon Jin Park & Wayne A. Fuller, 1995. "Alternative Estimators And Unit Root Tests For The Autoregressive Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 415-429, July.
    32. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 530-536, June.
    33. Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Sheng-Tung & Hsu, Chia-Sheng & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2016. "Modeling the global relationships among economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 420-431.
    34. Mohammadi, Hassan & Parvaresh, Shahrokh, 2014. "Energy consumption and output: Evidence from a panel of 14 oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 41-46.
    35. Kasman, Adnan & Duman, Yavuz Selman, 2015. "CO2 emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 97-103.
    36. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    37. Salahuddin, Mohammad & Gow, Jeff, 2014. "Economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 44-58.
    38. Belloumi, Mounir, 2009. "Energy consumption and GDP in Tunisia: Cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2745-2753, July.
    39. Saboori, Behnaz & Sapri, Maimunah & bin Baba, Maizan, 2014. "Economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development)'s transport sector: A fully modified bi-directional relationship approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 150-161.
    40. Sandro Montresor & Giuseppe Vittucci Marzetti, 2009. "APPLYING SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS TO INPUT-OUTPUT BASED INNOVATION MATRICES: AN ILLUSTRATIVE APPLICATION TO SIX OECD TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS FOR THE MIDDLE 1990s," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 129-149.
    41. Ndlovu, Vanessa & Inglesi-Lotz, Roula, 2020. "The causal relationship between energy and economic growth through research and development (R&D): The case of BRICS and lessons for South Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Indre Siksnelyte-Butkiene, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic to the Sustainability of the Energy Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-19, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zakaria, Muhammad & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2018. "The energy consumption and economic growth nexus in top ten energy-consuming countries: Fresh evidence from using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 282-301.
    2. Tiba, Sofien & Omri, Anis, 2017. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy, environment and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1129-1146.
    3. Sofien, Tiba & Omri, Anis, 2016. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy variables, environment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 82555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    4. Ahmad, Nisar & Aghdam, Reza FathollahZadeh & Butt, Irfan & Naveed, Amjad, 2020. "Citation-based systematic literature review of energy-growth nexus: An overview of the field and content analysis of the top 50 influential papers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    5. Hongze Li & Bingkang Li & Hao Lu, 2017. "Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Economic Growth, and Selected Types of Fossil Energy Consumption in China: Empirical Evidence from 1965 to 2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-14, April.
    6. Jalil, Abdul, 2014. "Energy–growth conundrum in energy exporting and importing countries: Evidence from heterogeneous panel methods robust to cross-sectional dependence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 314-324.
    7. Menegaki, Angeliki N., 2014. "On energy consumption and GDP studies; A meta-analysis of the last two decades," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 31-36.
    8. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2011. "Energy consumption and aggregate income in Italy: cointegration and causality analysis," MPRA Paper 28494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Omri, Anis, 2014. "An international literature survey on energy-economic growth nexus: Evidence from country-specific studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 951-959.
    10. Acheampong, Alex O., 2018. "Economic growth, CO2 emissions and energy consumption: What causes what and where?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 677-692.
    11. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Eapen, Leena Mary & Nair, Sthanu R, 2021. "Electricity consumption and economic growth at the state and sectoral level in India: Evidence using heterogeneous panel data methods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    12. Hasanov, Fakhri & Bulut, Cihan & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2017. "Review of energy-growth nexus: A panel analysis for ten Eurasian oil exporting countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 369-386.
    13. Cosimo Magazzino, 2015. "Energy consumption and GDP in Italy: cointegration and causality analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 137-153, February.
    14. Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Velayutham, Eswaran, 2020. "Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus: New evidence from South Asia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 399-408.
    15. Salamaliki, Paraskevi K. & Venetis, Ioannis A., 2013. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G-7: Multi-horizon causality testing in the presence of capital stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 108-121.
    16. Dergiades, Theologos & Martinopoulos, Georgios & Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2013. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Parametric and non-parametric causality testing for the case of Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 686-697.
    17. Destek, Mehmet Akif, 2016. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth: Panel evidence from OECD countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1007-1015.
    18. Habib Ur Rahman & Umer Zaman & Jarosław Górecki, 2021. "The Role of Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Globalization in Environmental Degradation: Empirical Evidence from the BRICS Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-16, February.
    19. Wang, Yajie & Yu, Huan & Zhang, Hongda & Chen, Tianyu, 2021. "Non-linear analysis of effects of energy consumption on economic growth in China: Role of real exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    20. Zhimin Peng & Qunqi Wu, 2020. "Evaluation of the relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, and CO2 emissions in China’ transport sector: the FMOLS and VECM approaches," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(7), pages 6537-6561, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:11:p:2984-:d:559290. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.