IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v192y2025ics096585642400418x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How would employees commute today if they had the same characteristics as employees in 1980? – Using entropy balancing to decompose changes in observed commuting mode choice over time in repeated cross-sections

Author

Listed:
  • Reinfeld, Nicole
  • Hagen, Tobias

Abstract

In recent decades, societal, economic, and technological developments have altered commuting behavior in many European and North American regions. Understanding the reasons for observed changes in commuting mode choice is crucial to implementing effective transport policy measures. Changes in commuting mode choice stem from either changing observable characteristics (structure of the population) or variables that are often unobserved for the researcher (such as prices or attitudes). Our study contributes to the literature by applying Entropy Balancing for the first time to decompose changes in commuting mode choice over time. We are the first to analyze data from the German Microcensus as repeated cross-sections covering every four years from 1980 to 2020 in transport research. We estimate counterfactual scenarios by comparing the population of 1980 to the balanced populations of consecutive survey waves. The “raw gap” describes changes in commuting mode choice over time in the unbalanced data. For example, the proportion of employees commuting by car increased from 58.0% in 1980 to 69.9% in 2016, resulting in a raw gap of 11.9 percentage points. Controlling for all observable characteristics (e.g., population structure) in the data explains between 3/4 and 7/8 of the raw gap. We find the increasing female labor force participation to have the highest dampening and longer distances between the residential location and the workplace to have the strongest increasing impact on the rise in commuting car share. The unexplained part (between 1/8 and 1/4) of the raw gap is due to unobservable variables (e.g., changes in supply, attitudes or (relative) costs). All these variables can (at least partly) be influenced by transport policy. Therefore, the unexplained part of the raw gap is an indicator of the scope for actions by transport policy. Sensitivity analyses support the validity of the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinfeld, Nicole & Hagen, Tobias, 2025. "How would employees commute today if they had the same characteristics as employees in 1980? – Using entropy balancing to decompose changes in observed commuting mode choice over time in repeated cros," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:192:y:2025:i:c:s096585642400418x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104370
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096585642400418X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2024.104370?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dissanayake, Dilum, 2017. "Watching the clock on the way to work? Analysing trends in commuting activities, modes and gender differences in commute times, using hazard-based duration modelling methods," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 188-199.
    2. Francesca Pagliara & John Preston & Jae Hong Kim, 2010. "The Impact of Transport Policy on Residential Location," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Francesca Pagliara & John Preston & David Simmonds (ed.), Residential Location Choice, pages 115-136, Springer.
    3. Nikita Jacob & Luke Munford & Nigel Rice & Jennifer Roberts, 2021. "Does commuting mode choice impact health?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 207-230, February.
    4. Bamberg, Sebastian & Fujii, Satoshi & Friman, Margareta & Gärling, Tommy, 2011. "Behaviour theory and soft transport policy measures," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 228-235, January.
    5. Jeff L. McMullin & Bryce Schonberger, 2020. "Entropy-balanced accruals," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 84-119, March.
    6. Vredin Johansson, Maria & Heldt, Tobias & Johansson, Per, 2006. "The effects of attitudes and personality traits on mode choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 507-525, July.
    7. Feng, Jianxi & Dijst, Martin & Wissink, Bart & Prillwitz, Jan, 2017. "Changing travel behaviour in urban China: Evidence from Nanjing 2008–2011," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-10.
    8. Paolo Gandini & Giovanna Marchionni & Luca Studer & Roberto Maja, 2019. "Sustainable and Aware Mobility Explained to Children," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-11, November.
    9. Hainmueller, Jens, 2012. "Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects: A Multivariate Reweighting Method to Produce Balanced Samples in Observational Studies," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 25-46, January.
    10. Chidambaram, Bhuvanachithra & Scheiner, Joachim, 2020. "Understanding relative commuting within dual-earner couples in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 113-129.
    11. Benjamin Duquet & Cédric Brunelle, 2020. "Subcentres as Destinations: Job Decentralization, Polycentricity, and the Sustainability of Commuting Patterns in Canadian Metropolitan Areas, 1996–2016," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-25, November.
    12. Ton, Danique & Bekhor, Shlomo & Cats, Oded & Duives, Dorine C. & Hoogendoorn-Lanser, Sascha & Hoogendoorn, Serge P., 2020. "The experienced mode choice set and its determinants: Commuting trips in the Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 744-758.
    13. Rupi, Federico & Freo, Marzia & Poliziani, Cristian & Postorino, Maria Nadia & Schweizer, Joerg, 2023. "Analysis of gender-specific bicycle route choices using revealed preference surveys based on GPS traces," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Buehler, Ralph, 2011. "Determinants of transport mode choice: a comparison of Germany and the USA," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 644-657.
    15. Oaxaca, Ronald, 1973. "Male-Female Wage Differentials in Urban Labor Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(3), pages 693-709, October.
    16. José M. Casado-Díaz & Raquel Simón-Albert & Hipólito Simón, 2023. "Gender Differences in Commuting: New Evidence from Spain," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 907-941, October.
    17. Zarabi, Zahra & Waygood, E. Owen D. & Olsson, Lars & Friman, Margareta & Gousse-Lessard, Anne-Sophie, 2024. "Enhancing public transport use: The influence of soft pull interventions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 190-203.
    18. Daniel F Heuermann & Johannes F Schmieder, 2019. "The effect of infrastructure on worker mobility: evidence from high-speed rail expansion in Germany," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 335-372.
    19. Scheiner, Joachim & Holz-Rau, Christian, 2013. "A comprehensive study of life course, cohort, and period effects on changes in travel mode use," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 167-181.
    20. Ko, Joonho & Lee, Sugie & Byun, Miree, 2019. "Exploring factors associated with commute mode choice: An application of city-level general social survey data," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 36-46.
    21. Alan S. Blinder, 1973. "Wage Discrimination: Reduced Form and Structural Estimates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 8(4), pages 436-455.
    22. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    23. Yusak Susilo & Kees Maat, 2007. "The influence of built environment to the trends in commuting journeys in the Netherlands," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 589-609, September.
    24. Jae-Hong Kim & Francesca Pagliara & John Preston, 2004. "Transport Policy Impact on Residential Location," International Review of Public Administration, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 71-87, July.
    25. Giménez-Nadal, José Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto & Velilla, Jorge, 2022. "Trends in commuting time of European workers: A cross-country analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 327-342.
    26. Commins, Nicola & Nolan, Anne, 2011. "The determinants of mode of transport to work in the Greater Dublin Area," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 259-268, January.
    27. Wang, Tingting & Chen, Cynthia, 2012. "Attitudes, mode switching behavior, and the built environment: A longitudinal study in the Puget Sound Region," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1594-1607.
    28. Tobias Kuhnimhof & Dirk Zumkeller & Bastian Chlond, 2013. "Who Made Peak Car, and How? A Breakdown of Trends over Four Decades in Four Countries," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 325-342, May.
    29. Habib, Khandker M. Nurul & Swait, Joffre & Salem, Sarah, 2014. "Using repeated cross-sectional travel surveys to enhance forecasting robustness: Accounting for changing mode preferences," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 110-126.
    30. Busch-Geertsema, Annika & Lanzendorf, Martin & Klinner, Nora, 2021. "Making public transport irresistible? The introduction of a free public transport ticket for state employees and its effects on mode use," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 249-261.
    31. Kerstin Westin & Erika Sandow, 2010. "People’s preferences for commuting in sparsely populated areas: The case of Sweden," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 2(3), pages 87-107.
    32. Clark, Ben & Chatterjee, Kiron & Melia, Steve, 2016. "Changes to commute mode: The role of life events, spatial context and environmental attitude," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 89-105.
    33. Chaoying Yin & Xiaoquan Wang & Chunfu Shao & Jianxiao Ma, 2022. "Exploring the Relationship between Built Environment and Commuting Mode Choice: Longitudinal Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-15, October.
    34. Laura McCarthy & Alexa Delbosc & Graham Currie & Andrew Molloy, 2021. "Trajectories and transitions: mobility after parenthood," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 239-256, February.
    35. Rico Krueger & Taha H. Rashidi & Akshay Vij, 2020. "X vs. Y: an analysis of intergenerational differences in transport mode use among young adults," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2203-2231, October.
    36. Dargay, Joyce M., 2002. "Determinants of car ownership in rural and urban areas: a pseudo-panel analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 351-366, September.
    37. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra E. Todd, 1997. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 605-654.
    38. Ali Etezady & F. Atiyya Shaw & Patricia L. Mokhtarian & Giovanni Circella, 2021. "What drives the gap? Applying the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition method to examine generational differences in transportation-related attitudes," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 857-883, April.
    39. Juan De Dios Ortúzar & Jimmy Armoogum & Jean‐Loup Madre & Françoise Potier, 2011. "Continuous Mobility Surveys: The State of Practice," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 293-312.
    40. Deaton, Angus, 1985. "Panel data from time series of cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 109-126.
    41. Charreire, H. & Roda, C. & Feuillet, T. & Piombini, A. & Bardos, H. & Rutter, H. & Compernolle, S. & Mackenbach, J.D. & Lakerveld, J. & Oppert, J.M., 2021. "Walking, cycling, and public transport for commuting and non-commuting travels across 5 European urban regions: Modal choice correlates and motivations," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    42. Shin, Eun Jin, 2023. "Decomposing neighborhood disparities in bicycle crashes: A Gelbach decomposition analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 156-172.
    43. Moritz Kersting & Eike Matthies & Jörg Lahner & Jan Schlüter, 2021. "A socioeconomic analysis of commuting professionals," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(5), pages 2127-2158, October.
    44. Ha, Jaehyun & Lee, Sugie & Ko, Joonho, 2020. "Unraveling the impact of travel time, cost, and transit burdens on commute mode choice for different income and age groups," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 147-166.
    45. Xiaodong Guan & Donggen Wang & Xinyu Jason Cao, 2020. "The role of residential self-selection in land use-travel research: a review of recent findings," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 267-287, May.
    46. Guido W. Imbens, 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Under Exogeneity: A Review," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 4-29, February.
    47. Bereitschaft, Bradley, 2020. "Gentrification and the evolution of commuting behavior within America's urban cores, 2000–2015," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    48. Beige, Sigrun & Axhausen, Kay W., 2017. "The dynamics of commuting over the life course: Swiss experiences," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 179-194.
    49. Humpe, Andreas & Gössling, Stefan & Haustein, Sonja, 2022. "Car careers: A socio-psychological evaluation of aspirational automobile ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 156-166.
    50. Augustus Ababio-Donkor & Wafaa Saleh & Achille Fonzone, 2020. "Understanding transport mode choice for commuting: the role of affect," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 385-403, May.
    51. J.S. Cramer, 1986. "Estimation Of Probability Models From Income Class Data," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 40(4), pages 237-250, December.
    52. Markus Frölich, 2007. "Propensity score matching without conditional independence assumption--with an application to the gender wage gap in the United Kingdom," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(2), pages 359-407, July.
    53. Schwanen, Tim & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2005. "What Affects Commute Mode Choice: Neighborhood Physical Structure or Preferences Toward Neighborhoods?," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt4nq9r1c9, University of California Transportation Center.
    54. Gössling, Stefan & Kees, Jessica & Litman, Todd, 2022. "The lifetime cost of driving a car," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    55. Ben Jann, 2021. "Entropy balancing as an estimation command," University of Bern Social Sciences Working Papers 39, University of Bern, Department of Social Sciences, revised 16 Aug 2021.
    56. Dargay, Joyce & Hanly, Mark, 2007. "Volatility of car ownership, commuting mode and time in the UK," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 934-948, December.
    57. Kasraian, Dena & Maat, Kees & van Wee, Bert, 2018. "Urban developments and daily travel distances: Fixed, random and hybrid effects models using a Dutch pseudo-panel over three decades," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 228-236.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Timmer, Sebastian & Merfeld, Katrin & Henkel, Sven, 2023. "Exploring motivations for multimodal commuting: A hierarchical means-end chain analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    2. Ko, Joonho & Lee, Sugie & Byun, Miree, 2019. "Exploring factors associated with commute mode choice: An application of city-level general social survey data," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 36-46.
    3. Kasraian, Dena & Maat, Kees & van Wee, Bert, 2018. "Urban developments and daily travel distances: Fixed, random and hybrid effects models using a Dutch pseudo-panel over three decades," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 228-236.
    4. Gevrek, Z. Eylem & Gevrek, Deniz & Neumeier, Christian, 2020. "Explaining the gender gaps in mathematics achievement and attitudes: The role of societal gender equality," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Gevrek, Z. Eylem & Seiberlich, Ruben R., 2014. "Semiparametric decomposition of the gender achievement gap: An application for Turkey," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 27-44.
    6. Draheim, Matthias & Schanbacher, Peter & Seiberlich, Ruben, 2021. "On the effectiveness of case management for people with disabilities," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 55, pages 1-15.
    7. Johansson Rehn, Henrik & Olsson, Lars E. & Friman, Margareta, 2024. "A framework of routine transitions in daily travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    8. Giménez-Nadal, José Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto & Velilla, Jorge, 2025. "Pro-environment attitudes and worker commuting behavior," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1967-1986.
    9. Scheiner, Joachim, 2020. "Changes in travel mode use over the life course with partner interactions in couple households," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 791-807.
    10. Lee, Yongsung & Guhathakurta, Subhrajit, 2018. "An analysis of the effects of suburban densification on vehicle use for shopping: Do existing residents respond to land-use changes in the same way as recent movers?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 193-204.
    11. Richard Larouche & Ulises Charles Rodriguez & Ransimala Nayakarathna & David R. Scott, 2020. "Effect of Major Life Events on Travel Behaviours: A Scoping Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-21, December.
    12. Giménez-Nadal, José Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto & Velilla, Jorge, 2021. "Two-way commuting: Asymmetries from time use surveys," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    13. Pfertner, Maximilian & Büttner, Benjamin & Duran-Rodas, David & Wulfhorst, Gebhard, 2022. "Workplace relocation and its association with car availability and commuting mode choice," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    14. Belloc, Ignacio & Gimenez-Nadal, José Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto, 2024. "The gasoline price and the commuting behavior of US commuters: Exploring changes to green travel mode choices," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Kamruzzaman, Md. & Baker, Douglas & Washington, Simon & Turrell, Gavin, 2013. "Residential dissonance and mode choice," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-28.
    16. Katie Meara & Francesco Pastore & Allan Webster, 2020. "The gender pay gap in the USA: a matching study," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 271-305, January.
    17. Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Fernández‐Val & Blaise Melly, 2013. "Inference on Counterfactual Distributions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(6), pages 2205-2268, November.
    18. Bachmann, Ronald & Martinez Flores, Fernanda & Rulff, Christian, 2022. "Die Lohnlücke in der Zeitarbeit: Eine empirische Analyse auf Grundlage von BA-Daten und der Verdienststrukturerhebung," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 262219, March.
    19. Andreas Peichl & Nico Pestel & Sebastian Siegloch, 2013. "The politicians’ wage gap: insights from German members of parliament," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 653-676, September.
    20. Bachmann, Ronald & Martinez Flores, Fernanda & Rulf, Christian, 2022. "Die Lohnlücke in der Zeitarbeit: Eine empirische Analyse auf Grundlage der Integrierten Erwerbsbiografien und der Verdienststrukturerhebung," RWI Materialien 153, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:192:y:2025:i:c:s096585642400418x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.