IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v96y2024ipbs1059056024005835.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What explains trading behaviors of members of congress? Evidence from over 100,000 congressional stock trades

Author

Listed:
  • Karadas, Serkan
  • Schlosky, Minh Tam Tammy

Abstract

Members of Congress (politicians) are allowed to trade stocks. There is evidence in the literature showing that politicians made informed trades until at least the passage of the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act of 2012. In this paper, we examine the drivers of congressional stock trading by using politicians’ daily stock trades (daily congressional trading) as the dependent variable. Our analysis is based on 181,029 congressional stock trades from 4630 trading days covering the period from January 2004 to June 2022. We find that politicians’ stock trades on a given day are positively related to their stock trades in the previous trading days. We further document that politicians trade more when Congress is in session and when geopolitical risk is high. We also find evidence of a significant reduction in the number of buy transactions following the passage of the STOCK Act. Furthermore, we show that politicians make more buy trades when economic policy uncertainty and equity market volatility are high. The results of our study suggest that members of Congress make trades to take advantage of the overall uncertainty in economic and political environments. Our paper contributes to the literature and the public debate on congressional trading (and trading by market participants in general) by providing further transparency on the stock trading practices of members of Congress.

Suggested Citation

  • Karadas, Serkan & Schlosky, Minh Tam Tammy, 2024. "What explains trading behaviors of members of congress? Evidence from over 100,000 congressional stock trades," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:96:y:2024:i:pb:s1059056024005835
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103591
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056024005835
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2024.103591?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Yaojie & He, Jiaxin & He, Mengxi & Li, Shaofang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility: A global perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Kuvvet, Emre & Maskara, Pankaj Kumar, 2018. "Former members of the U.S. Congress and fraud enforcement: Does it help to have politically connected friends on the board?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 77-89.
    3. Akbulut, Mehmet E. & Ucar, Erdem, 2023. "Policy risk and insider trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-353.
    4. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    5. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    6. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    7. Arnold, Marc & Pelster, Matthias & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2022. "Attention triggers and investors’ risk-taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 846-875.
    8. Ahmed Tahoun & Laurence van Lent, 2019. "The Personal Wealth Interests of Politicians and Government Intervention in the Economy," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 37-74.
    9. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    10. Karam Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2021. "Does sentiment determine investor trading behaviour?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(10), pages 811-816, June.
    11. Akey, Pat & Heimer, Rawley Z. & Lewellen, Stefan, 2021. "Politicizing consumer credit," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 627-655.
    12. Nachum Sicherman & George Loewenstein & Duane J. Seppi & Stephen P. Utkus, 2016. "Editor's Choice Financial Attention," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 863-897.
    13. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    14. Leslie A. Jeng & Andrew Metrick & Richard Zeckhauser, 2003. "Estimating the Returns to Insider Trading: A Performance-Evaluation Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 453-471, May.
    15. Chourou, Lamia & Hossain, Ashrafee T. & Jha, Anand, 2024. "US political corruption and quarterly conference calls," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    16. Peter Cziraki & Jasmin Gider, 2021. "The Dollar Profits to Insider Trading [Information networks: evidence from illegal insider trading tips]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(5), pages 1547-1580.
    17. Serkan Karadas, 2019. "Trading on Private Information: Evidence from Members of Congress," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 85-131, February.
    18. Liu, Wai-Man & Ngo, Phong T.H., 2014. "Elections, political competition and bank failure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 251-268.
    19. Eggers, Andrew C. & Hainmueller, Jens, 2014. "Political Capital: Corporate Connections and Stock Investments in the U.S. Congress, 2004-2008," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 9(2), pages 169-202, June.
    20. Goldman, Eitan & Gupta, Nandini & Israelsen, Ryan, 2024. "Political polarization in financial news," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    21. Ozlem Akin & Nicholas S. Coleman & Christian Fons‐Rosen & José‐Luis Peydró, 2021. "Political connections and informed trading: Evidence from TARP," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 619-644, September.
    22. Gao, Meng & Huang, Jiekun, 2016. "Capitalizing on Capitol Hill: Informed trading by hedge fund managers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 521-545.
    23. Duchin, Ran & Sosyura, Denis, 2012. "The politics of government investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 24-48.
    24. Li, Xiao, 2020. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on insider trades: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 41-57.
    25. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    26. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost, 2019. "Policy News and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 25720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin & Seo, Sung Won, 2014. "Investor sentiment and return predictability of disagreement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 166-178.
    28. Philipp Karl Illeditsch, 2011. "Ambiguous Information, Portfolio Inertia, and Excess Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 2213-2247, December.
    29. Liu, Li & Zhang, Tao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 99-105.
    30. Belmont, William & Sacerdote, Bruce & Sehgal, Ranjan & Van Hoek, Ian, 2022. "Do senators and house members beat the stock market? Evidence from the STOCK Act," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    31. Ivo Welch, 2022. "The Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1489-1527, June.
    32. Cohen, Lauren & Diether, Karl & Malloy, Christopher, 2013. "Legislating stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 574-595.
    33. Dagostino, Ramona & Gao, Janet & Ma, Pengfei, 2023. "Partisanship in loan pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    34. Matthew J. Kotchen & James H. Stock & Catherine D. Wolfram, 2019. "Introduction to "Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, volume 1, pages 3-7, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Jiang, Xiaoquan & Zaman, Mir A., 2010. "Aggregate insider trading: Contrarian beliefs or superior information?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1225-1236, June.
    36. Ziobrowski Alan J & Boyd James W & Cheng Ping & Ziobrowski Brigitte J., 2011. "Abnormal Returns From the Common Stock Investments of Members of the U.S. House of Representatives," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, April.
    37. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    38. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2004. "Order imbalance and individual stock returns: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 485-518, June.
    39. Chan, Louis K C & Lakonishok, Josef, 1995. "The Behavior of Stock Prices around Institutional Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1147-1174, September.
    40. Ziobrowski, Alan J. & Cheng, Ping & Boyd, James W. & Ziobrowski, Brigitte J., 2004. "Abnormal Returns from the Common Stock Investments of the U.S. Senate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(4), pages 661-676, December.
    41. Seyhun, H Nejat, 1988. "The Information Content of Aggregate Insider Trading," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(1), pages 1-24, January.
    42. Tahoun, Ahmed, 2014. "The role of stock ownership by US members of Congress on the market for political favors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 86-110.
    43. Eric K. Kelley & Paul C. Tetlock, 2013. "How Wise Are Crowds? Insights from Retail Orders and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1229-1265, June.
    44. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    45. Jan Hanousek & Hoje Jo & Christos Pantzalis & Jung Chul Park, 2023. "A Dilemma of Self-interest vs. Ethical Responsibilities in Political Insider Trading," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 137-167, September.
    46. Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami & Robert Nash & He (Helen) Wang, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and insider trading," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 817-854, December.
    47. Fiorillo, Paolo & Meles, Antonio & Pellegrino, Luigi Raffaele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock liquidity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    48. Ziobrowski, Alan J. & Boyd, James W. & Cheng, Ping & Ziobrowski, Brigitte J., 2011. "Abnormal Returns From the Common Stock Investments of Members of the U.S. House of Representatives," Business and Politics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan Hanousek & Hoje Jo & Christos Pantzalis & Jung Chul Park, 2023. "A Dilemma of Self-interest vs. Ethical Responsibilities in Political Insider Trading," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 137-167, September.
    2. Alan D. Jagolinzer & David F. Larcker & Gaizka Ormazabal & Daniel J. Taylor, 2020. "Political Connections and the Informativeness of Insider Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1833-1876, August.
    3. Serkan Karadas & Minh Tam Tammy Schlosky & Joshua Hall, 2021. "Did Politicians Use Non-Public Macroeconomic Information in Their Stock Trades? Evidence from the STOCK Act of 2012," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Serkan Karadas, 2019. "Trading on Private Information: Evidence from Members of Congress," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 85-131, February.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kyriacou, Kyriacos & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2023. "Aggregate insider trading and stock market volatility in the UK," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Ahmed Tahoun & Laurence van Lent, 2016. "The Personal Wealth Interests of Politicians and the Stabilization of Financial Markets," Working Papers Series 52, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    7. Xiao, Jihong & Jiang, Jiajie & Zhang, Yaojie, 2024. "Policy uncertainty, investor sentiment, and good and bad volatilities in the stock market: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Serkan Karadas, 2018. "Family ties and informed trading: evidence from Capitol Hill," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 211-248, April.
    9. Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Hongkui & Yu, Jiasheng & Zhang, Huajing, 2023. "International stock return predictability: The role of U.S. uncertainty spillover," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Stephan, Andrew P. & Walther, Beverly R. & Wellman, Laura A., 2021. "Profiting from connections: Do politicians receive stock tips from brokerage houses?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1).
    11. Yongqiang Chu & Weida Kuang & Daxuan Zhao & Xiaoxia Zhou, 2024. "Inside job: Evidence from the Chinese housing market," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 214-233, January.
    12. Kostopoulos, Dimitrios & Meyer, Steffen & Uhr, Charline, 2022. "Ambiguity about volatility and investor behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 277-296.
    13. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Montone, Maurizio, 2024. "Political uncertainty and institutional herding," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2018. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 134-150.
    15. Benjamin M. Blau & Todd G. Griffith & Ryan J. Whitby, 2022. "On the Ethics of “Non-Corporate” Insider Trading," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 79-93, April.
    16. Choi, Sun-Yong & Hadad, Elroi, 2025. "The dynamic relationship among economic and monetary policy, geopolitical risk, sentiment, and risk aversion: A TVP-VAR approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Li, Zhuo & Wen, Fenghua & Huang, Zhijian James, 2023. "Asymmetric response to earnings news across different sentiment states: The role of cognitive dissonance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Tarun Chordia & Alexander Kurov & Dmitriy Muravyev & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2021. "The joint cross section of stocks and options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1758-1778, March.
    19. Wen, Fenghua & Shui, Aojie & Cheng, Yuxiang & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty and stock returns in G7 and BRICS countries: A quantile-on-quantile approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 457-482.
    20. Patricia Chelley‐Steeley & Neophytos Lambertides & Christos S. Savva, 2019. "Sentiment, order imbalance, and co‐movement: An examination of shocks to retail and institutional trading activity," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(1), pages 116-159, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Congressional trading; Trading behavior; Members of congress; STOCK Act; Informed traders; Retail traders;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • M42 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Auditing
    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:96:y:2024:i:pb:s1059056024005835. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.