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Climate and migration in the United States

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  • Baylis, Patrick
  • Bharadwaj, Prashant
  • Mullins, Jamie T.
  • Obradovich, Nick

Abstract

We study whether households engage in climate-related migration in the United States, a country where most of the population does not regularly experience natural disasters or work in climate-exposed industries. With comprehensive, long-run data from both the Census and tax filings, we document that warm temperatures induce net out-migration, while cooler temperatures do not. By comparing estimates from models using different lengths of temporal variation, we further show that migration is a medium-run response to high temperatures: decadal and longer shifts in weather have larger annualized impacts than year-over-year changes. Finally, comparisons across county types suggest amenity value is an important mechanism behind climate-related migration in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Baylis, Patrick & Bharadwaj, Prashant & Mullins, Jamie T. & Obradovich, Nick, 2025. "Climate and migration in the United States," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:249:y:2025:i:c:s0047272725001446
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105446
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