IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v121y2024ics0966692324002576.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Neighborhood change and transit ridership: Evidence from Los Angeles and Orange Counties

Author

Listed:
  • Manville, Michael
  • King, Hannah
  • Matute, Juan
  • Lau, Theodore

Abstract

Using data from Southern California, we examine the idea that rising housing prices in transit-rich neighborhoods contributed to pre-COVID declines in transit use. We merge ridership data from the Los Angeles region’s two largest transit providers with tract-level Census data on housing costs and other socioeconomic attributes. We show descriptively that a small share of Census tracts account for a disproportionate share of both total transit ridership and total ridership losses, and that along multiple dimensions these neighborhoods changed in ways consistent with gentrification. We then estimate regressions showing a statistically and economically significant association between rising rent and less tract-level ridership between two periods, 2008 to 2012 and 2013 to 2017. Specifically, a one-standard deviation increase in median rent is associated with 22 percent fewer neighborhood transit boardings.

Suggested Citation

  • Manville, Michael & King, Hannah & Matute, Juan & Lau, Theodore, 2024. "Neighborhood change and transit ridership: Evidence from Los Angeles and Orange Counties," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:121:y:2024:i:c:s0966692324002576
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104048
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692324002576
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104048?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Couture, Victor & Handbury, Jessie, 2020. "Urban revival in America," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    3. repec:osf:socarx:cdw2y_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2005. "The American Mortgage in Historical and International Context," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 93-114, Fall.
    5. Lisa Rayle, 2015. "Investigating the Connection Between Transit-Oriented Development and Displacement: Four Hypotheses," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 531-548, July.
    6. Chase Billingham & Barry Bluestone & Stephanie Pollack, 2010. "Maintaining diversity in America's transit-rich neighborhoods: tools for equitable neighborhood change," New England Community Developments, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 1-6.
    7. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    8. Wang, Xize & Renne, John L., 2023. "Socioeconomics of Urban Travel in the U.S.: Evidence from the 2017 NHTS," SocArXiv cdw2y, Center for Open Science.
    9. Erhardt, Gregory D. & Hoque, Jawad Mahmud & Goyal, Vedant & Berrebi, Simon & Brakewood, Candace & Watkins, Kari E., 2022. "Why has public transit ridership declined in the United States?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 68-87.
    10. Mark R. Stevens, 2017. "Response to Commentaries on “Does Compact Development Make People Drive Less?”," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 83(2), pages 151-158, April.
    11. Rebecca Diamond & Tim McQuade & Franklin Qian, 2019. "The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3365-3394, September.
    12. Mark R. Stevens, 2017. "Does Compact Development Make People Drive Less?," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 83(1), pages 7-18, January.
    13. Michael Manville & Brian D. Taylor & Evelyn Blumenberg & Andrew Schouten, 2023. "Vehicle access and falling transit ridership: evidence from Southern California," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 303-329, February.
    14. Keele, Luke & Kelly, Nathan J., 2006. "Dynamic Models for Dynamic Theories: The Ins and Outs of Lagged Dependent Variables," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 186-205, April.
    15. Xize Wang & John L. Renne, 2023. "Socioeconomics of Urban Travel in the U.S.: Evidence from the 2017 NHTS," Papers 2303.04812, arXiv.org.
    16. Natalia A. Kolesnikova & Yang Liu, 2011. "Jobless recoveries: causes and consequences," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Apr, pages 18-19.
    17. repec:osf:socarx:5ka2g_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    19. M Storper, 1988. "Big Structures, Small Events, and Large Processes in Economic Geography," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 20(2), pages 165-185, February.
    20. Delmelle, Elizabeth C., 2021. "Transit-Induced Gentrification and Displacement: The State of the Debate," SocArXiv 5ka2g, Center for Open Science.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tao, Tao & Zhong, Haotian, 2024. "Income moderates the nonlinear influence of built environment attributes on travel-related carbon emissions," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Blaudin de Thé, Camille & Carantino, Benjamin & Lafourcade, Miren, 2021. "The carbon ‘carprint’ of urbanization: New evidence from French cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Tian, Guang & Ewing, Reid & Li, Han, 2023. "Exploring the influences of ride-hailing services on VMT and transit usage – Evidence from California," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Handy, Susan L & Volker, Jamey M. B. & Hosseinzade, Reyhane, 2024. "Assessing the Effectiveness of Potential Vehicle-Miles-Traveled (VMT) Mitigation Measures," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt1pf307sp, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    5. Miotti, Marco & Needell, Zachary A. & Jain, Rishee K., 2023. "The impact of urban form on daily mobility demand and energy use: Evidence from the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    6. Chetan Doddamani & M. Manoj, 2023. "Analysis of the influences of built environment measures on household car and motorcycle ownership decisions in Hubli-Dharwad cities," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 205-243, February.
    7. Carozzi, Felipe & Roth, Sefi, 2023. "Dirty density: Air quality and the density of American cities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    8. Mouratidis, Kostas & Ettema, Dick & Næss, Petter, 2019. "Urban form, travel behavior, and travel satisfaction," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 306-320.
    9. Kurmankhojayev, Daniyar & Li, Guoyuan & Chen, Anthony, 2024. "Link criticality index: Refinement, framework extension, and a case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    10. Baccini, Leonardo & Impullitti, Giammario & Malesky, Edmund J., 2019. "Globalization and state capitalism: Assessing Vietnam's accession to the WTO," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 75-92.
    11. Tsai, Tsung-Han, 2016. "A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Panel Models with Endogenous Rarely Changing Variables," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 595-620, September.
    12. Li, Xiaomeng & Neal, Zachary P., 2022. "Are larger cities more central in urban networks: A meta-analysis," OSF Preprints y3s69, Center for Open Science.
    13. Kulander, Maria & Wilhelmsson, Mats, 2020. "What determines the supply of housing for the elderly, and how is it related to the spread of Covid-19 and future demographic changes?," Working Paper Series 20/18, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    14. Palm, Matthew & Allen, Jeff & Farber, Steven, 2023. "Shifted out: the well-being and justice implications of evening and night commuting," SocArXiv uy96s, Center for Open Science.
    15. Azémar, Céline & Desbordes, Rodolphe & Wooton, Ian, 2020. "Is international tax competition only about taxes? A market-based perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 891-912.
    16. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2014. "Disease and Development Revisited," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(6), pages 1355-1366.
    17. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    18. Faizeh Hatami & Jean-Claude Thill, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Evaluation of the Built Environment’s Impact on Commuting Duration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.
    19. Nilsson, Isabelle & Delmelle, Elizabeth C., 2023. "Smart growth as a luxury amenity? Exploring the relationship between the marketing of smart growth characteristics and neighborhood racial and income change," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    20. Ding, Chuan & Cao, Xinyu (Jason) & Næss, Petter, 2018. "Applying gradient boosting decision trees to examine non-linear effects of the built environment on driving distance in Oslo," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 107-117.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:121:y:2024:i:c:s0966692324002576. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.