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Why has public transit ridership declined in the United States?

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  • Erhardt, Gregory D.
  • Hoque, Jawad Mahmud
  • Goyal, Vedant
  • Berrebi, Simon
  • Brakewood, Candace
  • Watkins, Kari E.

Abstract

Between 2012 and 2018, bus ridership in the United States declined 15% and rail ridership declined 3%. These losses are widespread and in contrast to trends in other countries. Using data from 215 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, we identify the factors responsible for this decline and quantify the contribution of each. We show that expanded transit service and land-use changes increased ridership 4.7% on bus and 10.7% on rail. However, losses due to other factors exceed these gains. Ride-hailing is the biggest contributor to transit ridership decline over this period, reducing bus ridership by 10%. Ride-hailing’s effect on rail varies by metropolitan area size: it has little effect on rail ridership in the largest metropolitan areas but decreases rail ridership 10% in mid-sized metropolitan areas. Lower gas prices and higher fares contribute to lower transit ridership, as do higher incomes, more teleworking and higher car ownership. By providing a clear understanding of the causes of transit ridership decline, our research provides the foundation on which communities can craft an effective response to the problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Erhardt, Gregory D. & Hoque, Jawad Mahmud & Goyal, Vedant & Berrebi, Simon & Brakewood, Candace & Watkins, Kari E., 2022. "Why has public transit ridership declined in the United States?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 68-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:161:y:2022:i:c:p:68-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2022.04.006
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    7. Gao, Jing & Li, Sen, 2024. "Regulating for-hire autonomous vehicles for an equitable multimodal transportation network," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    8. Pike, Susan & Handy, Susan, 2023. "Mode Share Changes in California: An Exploratory Analysis of Factors Affecting Decreases in Walking, Biking and Transit Use from 2012 to 2017," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt9cg0f12x, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
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    Transit; Bus; Rail; Ride-hail; TNC;
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