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Why has public transit ridership declined in the United States?

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  • Erhardt, Gregory D.
  • Hoque, Jawad Mahmud
  • Goyal, Vedant
  • Berrebi, Simon
  • Brakewood, Candace
  • Watkins, Kari E.

Abstract

Between 2012 and 2018, bus ridership in the United States declined 15% and rail ridership declined 3%. These losses are widespread and in contrast to trends in other countries. Using data from 215 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, we identify the factors responsible for this decline and quantify the contribution of each. We show that expanded transit service and land-use changes increased ridership 4.7% on bus and 10.7% on rail. However, losses due to other factors exceed these gains. Ride-hailing is the biggest contributor to transit ridership decline over this period, reducing bus ridership by 10%. Ride-hailing’s effect on rail varies by metropolitan area size: it has little effect on rail ridership in the largest metropolitan areas but decreases rail ridership 10% in mid-sized metropolitan areas. Lower gas prices and higher fares contribute to lower transit ridership, as do higher incomes, more teleworking and higher car ownership. By providing a clear understanding of the causes of transit ridership decline, our research provides the foundation on which communities can craft an effective response to the problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Erhardt, Gregory D. & Hoque, Jawad Mahmud & Goyal, Vedant & Berrebi, Simon & Brakewood, Candace & Watkins, Kari E., 2022. "Why has public transit ridership declined in the United States?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 68-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:161:y:2022:i:c:p:68-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2022.04.006
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    5. Pike, Susan & Handy, Susan, 2023. "Mode Share Changes in California: An Exploratory Analysis of Factors Affecting Decreases in Walking, Biking and Transit Use from 2012 to 2017," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt9cg0f12x, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    6. Soria, Jason & Edward, Deirdre & Stathopoulos, Amanda, 2023. "Requiem for transit ridership? An examination of who abandoned, who will return, and who will ride more with mobility as a service," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 139-154.
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    8. Stéphanie Truchet-Aznar & Chloé Duvivier & Jacques Veslot, 2024. "Assessing the impact of fare-free public transport on ridership. The case of Clermont Auvergne Metropole [Évaluation de l’impact de la gratuité des transports en commun sur leur fréquentation. Appl," Post-Print hal-04747019, HAL.
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    Keywords

    Transit; Bus; Rail; Ride-hail; TNC;
    All these keywords.

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