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Transit to eternal youth: lifecycle and generational trends in Greater Montreal public transport mode share

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  • Michael Grimsrud
  • Ahmed El-Geneidy

Abstract

Young people appear to be using public transit more than their predecessors, reversing twentieth century trends, but the importance of such findings depends on whether high transit use persists as these riders age. This paper examines whether transit mode share for commuting trips is increasing; socio-economic and geographic trends are also explored to attempt to determine whether these trends are likely to continue. The study uses repeated cross-sectional origin–destination surveys of Greater Montreal (1998, 2003 and 2008). Over 45,000 home-to-work and home-to-school trips are studied for each survey year. A general lifecycle pattern of decreasing transit share with age is apparent within cohorts until individuals reach their early 30s, followed by decades of stability. This pattern appears to hold in recent years, but with higher youth use rates, and it is argued that the higher use will continue as current younger cohorts mature. Suburbanization by those in their early 30s is evident and, along with household composition changes, appears to explain much of the final within-cohort mode share declines before equilibrium. Transit providers might see lasting ridership gains, as those currently in their early 30s and younger replace lower-use cohorts in the workforce, provided service provision keeps pace. Addressing the needs of young people, whose mode choices are comparatively unsettled, should be a priority for transit agencies to ensure higher transit usage in the future. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

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  • Michael Grimsrud & Ahmed El-Geneidy, 2014. "Transit to eternal youth: lifecycle and generational trends in Greater Montreal public transport mode share," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:41:y:2014:i:1:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-013-9454-9
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    8. Hasnine, Md Sami & Lin, TianYang & Weiss, Adam & Habib, Khandker Nurul, 2018. "Determinants of travel mode choices of post-secondary students in a large metropolitan area: The case of the city of Toronto," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 161-171.
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    10. Esmailpour, Javad & Aghabayk, Kayvan & Aghajanzadeh, Mohammad & De Gruyter, Chris, 2022. "Has COVID-19 changed our loyalty towards public transport? Understanding the moderating role of the pandemic in the relationship between service quality, customer satisfaction and loyalty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 80-103.
    11. Simon J. Berrebi & Kari E. Watkins, 2020. "Whos Ditching the Bus?," Papers 2001.02200, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    12. Erhardt, Gregory D. & Hoque, Jawad Mahmud & Goyal, Vedant & Berrebi, Simon & Brakewood, Candace & Watkins, Kari E., 2022. "Why has public transit ridership declined in the United States?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 68-87.
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    14. Bereitschaft, Bradley, 2020. "Gentrification and the evolution of commuting behavior within America's urban cores, 2000–2015," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Bagdatli, Muhammed Emin Cihangir & Ipek, Fatima, 2022. "Transport mode preferences of university students in post-COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 20-32.
    16. Fitwi Wolday & Lars Böcker, 2023. "Exploring changes in residential preference during COVID-19: Implications to contemporary urban planning," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(5), pages 1280-1297, June.
    17. Yunpeng Bai & Changjing Shang & Ying Li & Liang Shen & Shangzhu Jin & Qiang Shen, 2023. "Transport Object Detection in Street View Imagery Using Decomposed Convolutional Neural Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-22, September.
    18. Berrebi, Simon J. & Watkins, Kari E., 2020. "Who’s ditching the bus?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 21-34.
    19. Krueger, Rico & Rashidi, Taha H. & Vij, Akshay, 2018. "X vs. Y: An Analysis of Intergenerational Differences in Transport Mode Use Among Young Adults," SocArXiv unezy, Center for Open Science.
    20. Delbosc, Alexa & McCarthy, Laura, 2021. "Pushed back, pulled forward: Exploring the impact of COVID-19 on young adults’ life plans and future mobility," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 43-51.

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