IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/transp/v41y2014i1p1-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transit to eternal youth: lifecycle and generational trends in Greater Montreal public transport mode share

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Grimsrud
  • Ahmed El-Geneidy

Abstract

Young people appear to be using public transit more than their predecessors, reversing twentieth century trends, but the importance of such findings depends on whether high transit use persists as these riders age. This paper examines whether transit mode share for commuting trips is increasing; socio-economic and geographic trends are also explored to attempt to determine whether these trends are likely to continue. The study uses repeated cross-sectional origin–destination surveys of Greater Montreal (1998, 2003 and 2008). Over 45,000 home-to-work and home-to-school trips are studied for each survey year. A general lifecycle pattern of decreasing transit share with age is apparent within cohorts until individuals reach their early 30s, followed by decades of stability. This pattern appears to hold in recent years, but with higher youth use rates, and it is argued that the higher use will continue as current younger cohorts mature. Suburbanization by those in their early 30s is evident and, along with household composition changes, appears to explain much of the final within-cohort mode share declines before equilibrium. Transit providers might see lasting ridership gains, as those currently in their early 30s and younger replace lower-use cohorts in the workforce, provided service provision keeps pace. Addressing the needs of young people, whose mode choices are comparatively unsettled, should be a priority for transit agencies to ensure higher transit usage in the future. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Grimsrud & Ahmed El-Geneidy, 2014. "Transit to eternal youth: lifecycle and generational trends in Greater Montreal public transport mode share," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:41:y:2014:i:1:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-013-9454-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11116-013-9454-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11116-013-9454-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patricia L. Mokhtarian & Michael N. Bagley, 2002. "The impact of residential neighborhood type on travel behavior: A structural equations modeling approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 36(2), pages 279-297.
    2. Thøgersen, John, 2006. "Understanding repetitive travel mode choices in a stable context: A panel study approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 621-638, October.
    3. Sperling, Daniel & Gordon, Deborah, 2009. "Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195376647.
    4. Matas, Anna & Raymond, Josep-LLuis, 2008. "Changes in the structure of car ownership in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 187-202, January.
    5. Handy, Susan & Cao, Xinyu & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2005. "Correlation or causality between the built environment and travel behavior? Evidence from Northern California," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5b76c5kg, University of California Transportation Center.
    6. Kuhnimhof, Tobias & Buehler, Ralph & Wirtz, Matthias & Kalinowska, Dominika, 2012. "Travel trends among young adults in Germany: increasing multimodality and declining car use for men," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 443-450.
    7. Tommy Gärling & Kay Axhausen, 2003. "Introduction: Habitual travel choice," Transportation, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 1-11, February.
    8. Dargay, Joyce & Hanly, Mark, 2007. "Volatility of car ownership, commuting mode and time in the UK," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 934-948, December.
    9. Nolan, Anne, 2010. "A dynamic analysis of household car ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 446-455, July.
    10. Dargay, Joyce, 2007. "The effect of prices and income on car travel in the UK," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 949-960, December.
    11. Marsden, Greg, 2006. "The evidence base for parking policies--a review," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 447-457, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shaila Jamal & K. Bruce Newbold & Darren M. Scott, 2023. "Developing a typology of daily travelers based on transportation attitudes: Application of latent class analysis using a survey of millennials and older adults in Hamilton, Ontario," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 870-884, December.
    2. Krueger, Rico & Rashidi, Taha H. & Vij, Akshay, 2018. "X vs. Y: An Analysis of Intergenerational Differences in Transport Mode Use Among Young Adults," SocArXiv unezy, Center for Open Science.
    3. Yunpeng Bai & Changjing Shang & Ying Li & Liang Shen & Shangzhu Jin & Qiang Shen, 2023. "Transport Object Detection in Street View Imagery Using Decomposed Convolutional Neural Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-22, September.
    4. Delbosc, Alexa & McCarthy, Laura, 2021. "Pushed back, pulled forward: Exploring the impact of COVID-19 on young adults’ life plans and future mobility," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 43-51.
    5. Zhu, Pengyu & Tan, Xinying & Zhao, Songnian & Shi, Shuai & Wang, Mingshu, 2022. "Land use regulations, transit investment, and commuting preferences," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    6. Delbosc, Alexa & Naznin, Farhana, 2019. "Future life course and mobility: A latent class analysis of young adults in Victoria, Australia," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 104-116.
    7. Esmailpour, Javad & Aghabayk, Kayvan & Aghajanzadeh, Mohammad & De Gruyter, Chris, 2022. "Has COVID-19 changed our loyalty towards public transport? Understanding the moderating role of the pandemic in the relationship between service quality, customer satisfaction and loyalty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 80-103.
    8. Hopkins, Debbie & Stephenson, Janet, 2014. "Generation Y mobilities through the lens of energy cultures: a preliminary exploration of mobility cultures," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 88-91.
    9. Simon J. Berrebi & Kari E. Watkins, 2020. "Whos Ditching the Bus?," Papers 2001.02200, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    10. Ralph, Kelcie & Delbosc, Alexa, 2017. "I’m multimodal, aren’t you? How ego-centric anchoring biases experts’ perceptions of travel patterns," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 283-293.
    11. Haseeb, Attiya & Mitra, Raktim, 2023. "Do environmentally sustainable travel behaviours contribute to transportation-related social exclusion?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Erhardt, Gregory D. & Hoque, Jawad Mahmud & Goyal, Vedant & Berrebi, Simon & Brakewood, Candace & Watkins, Kari E., 2022. "Why has public transit ridership declined in the United States?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 68-87.
    13. Rico Krueger & Taha H. Rashidi & Akshay Vij, 2020. "X vs. Y: an analysis of intergenerational differences in transport mode use among young adults," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2203-2231, October.
    14. Berrebi, Simon J. & Watkins, Kari E., 2020. "Who’s ditching the bus?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 21-34.
    15. Delbosc, Alexa & Nakanishi, Hitomi, 2017. "A life course perspective on the travel of Australian millennials," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 319-336.
    16. Hasnine, Md Sami & Lin, TianYang & Weiss, Adam & Habib, Khandker Nurul, 2018. "Determinants of travel mode choices of post-secondary students in a large metropolitan area: The case of the city of Toronto," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 161-171.
    17. Bagdatli, Muhammed Emin Cihangir & Ipek, Fatima, 2022. "Transport mode preferences of university students in post-COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 20-32.
    18. Fitwi Wolday & Lars Böcker, 2023. "Exploring changes in residential preference during COVID-19: Implications to contemporary urban planning," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(5), pages 1280-1297, June.
    19. Bereitschaft, Bradley, 2020. "Gentrification and the evolution of commuting behavior within America's urban cores, 2000–2015," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    20. Thomas Klinger & Martin Lanzendorf, 2016. "Moving between mobility cultures: what affects the travel behavior of new residents?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 243-271, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bindong Sun & Tinglin Zhang & Zhou He & Rui Wang, 2017. "Urban Spatial Structure And Motorization In China," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 470-486, June.
    2. Abu Toasin Oakil & Dorien Manting & Hans Nijland, 2018. "The role of individual characteristics in car ownership shortly after relationship dissolution," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(6), pages 1871-1882, November.
    3. Schmid, Basil & Becker, Felix & Axhausen, Kay W. & Widmer, Paul & Stein, Petra, 2023. "A simultaneous model of residential location, mobility tool ownership and mode choice using latent variables," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Busch-Geertsema, Annika & Lanzendorf, Martin, 2017. "From university to work life – Jumping behind the wheel? Explaining mode change of students making the transition to professional life," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 181-196.
    5. De Vos, Jonas, 2018. "Do people travel with their preferred travel mode? Analysing the extent of travel mode dissonance and its effect on travel satisfaction," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 261-274.
    6. De Vos, Jonas & Witlox, Frank, 2017. "Travel satisfaction revisited. On the pivotal role of travel satisfaction in conceptualising a travel behaviour process," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 364-373.
    7. Quaglione, Davide & Cassetta, Ernesto & Crociata, Alessandro & Marra, Alessandro & Sarra, Alessandro, 2019. "An assessment of the role of cultural capital on sustainable mobility behaviours: Conceptual framework and empirical evidence," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 24-34.
    8. Albalate, Daniel & Gragera, Albert, 2020. "The impact of curbside parking regulations on car ownership," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. John Eakins, 2013. "The Determinants of Household Car Ownership: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Household Budget Survey," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 144, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    10. Van Acker, Veronique & Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Witlox, Frank, 2014. "Car availability explained by the structural relationships between lifestyles, residential location, and underlying residential and travel attitudes," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 88-99.
    11. Frances Sprei & Cecilia Hult & Åsa Hult & Anders Roth, 2020. "Review of the Effects of Developments with Low Parking Requirements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-13, February.
    12. Ikezoe, Keigo & Kiriyama, Eriko & Fujimura, Shuzo, 2020. "Car-sharing intention analysis in Japan by comparing the utility of car ownership for car-owners and non-car owners," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-14.
    13. Lee, Yongsung & Guhathakurta, Subhrajit, 2018. "An analysis of the effects of suburban densification on vehicle use for shopping: Do existing residents respond to land-use changes in the same way as recent movers?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 193-204.
    14. Rubin, Ori & Mulder, Clara H. & Bertolini, Luca, 2014. "The determinants of mode choice for family visits – evidence from Dutch panel data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 137-147.
    15. Sabreena Anowar & Shamsunnahar Yasmin & Naveen Eluru & Luis Miranda-Moreno, 2014. "Analyzing car ownership in Quebec City: a comparison of traditional and latent class ordered and unordered models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 1013-1039, September.
    16. Oakil, Abu Toasin Md & Manting, Dorien & Nijland, Hans, 2016. "Determinants of car ownership among young households in the Netherlands: The role of urbanisation and demographic and economic characteristics," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 229-235.
    17. He, Sylvia Y. & Thøgersen, John, 2017. "The impact of attitudes and perceptions on travel mode choice and car ownership in a Chinese megacity: The case of Guangzhou," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 57-67.
    18. Xu, Mingtao & Ye, Zhirui & Shan, Xiaofeng, 2016. "Modeling, analysis, and simulation of the co-development of road networks and vehicle ownership," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 417-428.
    19. Vega-Gonzalo, Maria & Gomez, Juan & Christidis, Panayotis, 2023. "How has COVID-19 changed private car use in European urban areas? An analysis of the effect of socio-economic characteristics and mobility habits," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    20. Kühne, Kathrin & Mitra, Suman K. & Saphores, Jean-Daniel M., 2018. "Without a ride in car country – A comparison of carless households in Germany and California," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 24-40.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:41:y:2014:i:1:p:1-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.