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Vehicle access and falling transit ridership: evidence from Southern California

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Manville

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Brian D. Taylor

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Evelyn Blumenberg

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Andrew Schouten

    (Ritsumeikan University)

Abstract

We examine pre-COVID declines in transit ridership, using Southern California as a case study. We first illustrate Southern California’s unique position in the transit landscape: it is a large transit market that demographically resembles a small one. We then draw on administrative data, travel diaries, rider surveys, accessibility indices, and Census microdata for Southern California, and demonstrate a strong association between rising private vehicle access, particularly among the populations most likely to ride transit, and falling transit use. Because we cannot control quantitatively for the endogeneity between vehicle acquisition and transit use, our results are not causal. Nevertheless, the results strongly suggest that increasing private vehicle access helped depress transit ridership. Given Southern California’s similarity to most US transit markets, we conclude that vehicle access may have played a role in transit losses across the US since 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Manville & Brian D. Taylor & Evelyn Blumenberg & Andrew Schouten, 2023. "Vehicle access and falling transit ridership: evidence from Southern California," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 303-329, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:50:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11116-021-10245-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-021-10245-w
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    Cited by:

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    4. Schouten, Andrew & Blumenberg, Evelyn, 2024. "License to drive: State driver’s licensing laws and the travel of unauthorized immigrants," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. Srisan, Tat & Bills, Tierra, 2024. "A case for race and space in auto ownership modeling: A Los Angeles County study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 182-197.
    6. Rebecca Marie Shakespeare & Sumeeta Srinivasan, 2024. "Demographic and Built Environment Predictors of Public Transportation Retention and Work-from-Home Changes in Small- to Medium-Sized Massachusetts Cities, 2011–2021," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-18, October.
    7. Tian, Guang & Ewing, Reid & Li, Han, 2023. "Exploring the influences of ride-hailing services on VMT and transit usage – Evidence from California," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Manville, Michael & King, Hannah & Matute, Juan & Lau, Theodore, 2024. "Neighborhood change and transit ridership: Evidence from Los Angeles and Orange Counties," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

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