IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v141y2024ics0261560623002140.html

Money never sleeps: Capital flows under global risk and uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K.
  • Wu, Haoran
  • Xu, Tongbin
  • Yang, Min

Abstract

We employ various indexes, namely the geopolitical risk (GPR) index, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, and world uncertainty index (WUI), to comprehensively capture multiple dimensions of risk and uncertainty and investigate their influence on capital flows measured by different categories of mutual fund flows and IMF intercountry transaction flows. We find that GPR harms aggregate capital flows of both equity and bond funds, whereas rising EPU only significantly reduces the capital flows of equity funds. Additionally, WUI increases capital flowing into active bond funds, indicating a flight-to-safety effect. Besides, high GPR environments amplify the negative influence of EPU on capital flows of equity funds. Meanwhile, in more geopolitically stable conditions, bond markets may serve as a preferred shelter for navigating EPU. However, we find that the impacts of risk and uncertainty on transaction flows are marginal. Furthermore, we demonstrate that global risk or uncertainty (EPU and WUI) plays a more dominant role than country-specific ones in shaping capital flows. Therefore, this study offers novel insights into how different dimensions of risk and uncertainty can shape capital flows differently and whether the compounding effect of risk and uncertainty differs from that of a single risk or uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Wu, Haoran & Xu, Tongbin & Yang, Min, 2024. "Money never sleeps: Capital flows under global risk and uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:141:y:2024:i:c:s0261560623002140
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.103013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560623002140
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.103013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    2. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    3. Anderson, Evan W. & Ghysels, Eric & Juergens, Jennifer L., 2009. "The impact of risk and uncertainty on expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 233-263, November.
    4. Scott R. Baker & Aniket Baksy & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Jonathan Rodden, 2020. "Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers 2020-145, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    5. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis [‘The great trade collapse: what caused it and what does it mean?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 289-346.
    6. Davis, J. Scott & Valente, Giorgio & van Wincoop, Eric, 2021. "Global drivers of gross and net capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Aliber, Robert Z, 1969. "Exchange Risk, Yield Curves, and the Pattern of Capital Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 361-370, May.
    8. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-152, Summer.
    9. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Hites Ahir & Nicholas Bloom & Davide Furceri, 2022. "The world uncertainty index," POID Working Papers 031, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. Choi, Sangyup & Ciminelli, Gabriele & Furceri, Davide, 2023. "Is domestic uncertainty a local pull factor driving foreign capital inflows? New cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    12. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
    13. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    14. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad & Andrew Karolyi, 2021. "Taper Tantrums: Quantitative Easing, Its Aftermath, and Emerging Market Capital Flows [Pricing the term structure with linear regressions]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 1445-1508.
    15. Galstyan, Vahagn & Lane, Philip R., 2013. "Bilateral portfolio dynamics during the global financial crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 63-74.
    16. Mark Gradstein, 2007. "Inequality, democracy and the protection of property rights," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 252-269, January.
    17. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide, 2019. "Uncertainty and cross-border banking flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 260-274.
    18. Falato, Antonio & Goldstein, Itay & Hortaçsu, Ali, 2021. "Financial fragility in the COVID-19 crisis: The case of investment funds in corporate bond markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 35-52.
    19. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    20. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    21. Guido Sandleris, 2014. "Sovereign Defaults, Credit to the Private Sector, and Domestic Credit Market Institutions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 321-345, March.
    22. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Julio, Brandon & Yook, Youngsuk, 2016. "Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 13-26.
    24. Bayoumi, Tamim & Gagnon, Joseph, 1996. "Taxation and inflation: A new explanation for capital flows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 303-330, October.
    25. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:26:y:2011:i:66:p:285-342 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    27. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    28. Wang, Yabin, 2018. "Fickle capital flows and retrenchment: Evidence from bilateral banking data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-21.
    29. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    30. Nancy Stokey, 2016. "Wait-and See: Investment Options under Policy Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 246-265, July.
    31. Feng, Chaonan & Han, Liyan & Vigne, Samuel & Xu, Yang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    32. Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Chen, Zhongfei & Chortareas, Georgios & Li, Kexin, 2023. "Global economic policy Uncertainty, gross capital Inflows, and the mitigating role of Macroprudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Zhewei & Xu, Zhiwei & Zhou, Fangxing, 2025. "Financial liberalization and capital allocation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PA).
    2. Fleta-Asín, Jorge & Muñoz, Fernando, 2025. "In the name of the law: How does legal distance affect US international mutual funds’ financial performance?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Wang Lu & Wang Yuting & Zhao Ziying & Shang Lin & Wang Xiaoli, 2026. "The Dynamic Association of Economic Policy Uncertainty, Short-Term Cross-Border Capital Flows and Systemic Financial Risk," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-13.
    4. Choi, Sangyup & Havel, Jiri, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and U.S. foreign portfolio investment: A tale of advanced and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Salachas, Evangelos & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2025. "Understanding central bank responses to geopolitical risks: Evidence from the Fed and ECB," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Bettendorf, Timo, 2025. "Disentangling supply-side and demand-side effects of uncertainty shocks on U.S. financial markets: Identification using prices of gold and oil," Discussion Papers 10/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Fang, Guobin & Zhou, Xuehua & Ma, Huimin & Zhao, XiaoFang & Deng, YaoXun & Xie, Luoyan, 2025. "Economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment and systemic financial risk: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Wang, Man & Wang, Xueting, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and corporate maturity mismatch," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Beckmann, Joscha & Boonman, Tjeerd M. & Schreiber, Sven, 2024. "Expectations, sentiments and capital flows to emerging market economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    10. Marco Albori, 2025. "Politics will tear us apart, again. Geopolitical risk, fragmentation, and capital flows," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 974, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Beckmann, Joscha & Bettendorf, Timo, 2025. "On the effects of global uncertainty shocks on portfolio flows," Discussion Papers 23/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Song, Jian & Zhou, Xiaozhou, 2025. "How does foreign economic policy uncertainty affect domestic analyst earnings forecasts?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026. "Capital flows, financial conditions and exchange rate dynamics: Implications for monetary policy in Peru," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, exchange rates and financial conditions in EMEs in an evolving international monetary system, volume 127, pages 242-264, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Huang, Ziyin & Guo, Zhuopin & Chen, Junsong & Huang, Jin, 2025. "Sharing weal and woe: Do geopolitical risks affect corporate innovation? A global supply chain perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    15. Huang, Xiaowei & He, Chenyu & Zhang, Man, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and capital flows' tail risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    16. Maksim V. Petrov, 2024. "The Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on International Capital Flows," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 8-22, June.
    17. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Faek Menla-Ali, 2024. "Geopolitical Risk and Cross-Border Portfolio Flows: Effects and Channels," CESifo Working Paper Series 11337, CESifo.
    18. Massil, Joseph Keneck & Tadadjeu, Sosson & Yogo, Urbain Thierry, 2025. "Uncertainty and household consumption in developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 51-64.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Choi, Sangyup & Havel, Jiri, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and U.S. foreign portfolio investment: A tale of advanced and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Choi, Sangyup & Ciminelli, Gabriele & Furceri, Davide, 2023. "Is domestic uncertainty a local pull factor driving foreign capital inflows? New cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Feng, Chaonan & Han, Liyan & Vigne, Samuel & Xu, Yang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Huang, Xiaowei & He, Chenyu & Zhang, Man, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and capital flows' tail risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Li, Zhisheng & Lin, Bingxuan & Liu, Zhouyi & Yüksel, H. Zafer, 2025. "Unpacking the crisis: Impact of COVID-19 on global equity flows," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide, 2019. "Uncertainty and cross-border banking flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 260-274.
    7. Benhima, Kenza & Cordonier, Rachel, 2022. "News, sentiment and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Ibrahim D. Raheem & Sara le Roux & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "The Role of Asymmetry and Uncertainties in the Capital Flows- Economic Growth Nexus," Research Africa Network Working Papers 19/047, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    9. Agustin Benetrix & Michael Curran, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and the Cross-Border Funding of Banks: Unmasking Heterogeneity," Trinity Economics Papers tep0920, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    10. Wang, Bo & Yan, Ruolan & Chen, Yang, 2025. "Predicting abnormal capital flow episodes with machine learning methods," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    11. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2019. "Policy Uncertainty and FDI Flows: The Role of Institutional Quality and Financial Development," Working papers 2019rwp-144, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    12. Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Chen, Zhongfei & Chortareas, Georgios & Li, Kexin, 2023. "Global economic policy Uncertainty, gross capital Inflows, and the mitigating role of Macroprudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    13. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Faek Menla-Ali, 2024. "Geopolitical Risk and Cross-Border Portfolio Flows: Effects and Channels," CESifo Working Paper Series 11337, CESifo.
    14. Jorge Lorca, 2021. "Capital Flows and Emerging Markets Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 898, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Boonman, Tjeerd, 2023. "Have drivers of portfolio capital flows changed since the Global Financial Crisis?," MPRA Paper 116507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Shiyi Wang, 2019. "Capital Flow Volatility: The Effects of Financial Development and Global Financial Conditions," 2019 Papers pwa945, Job Market Papers.
    17. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2021. "International Fiscal-Financial Spillovers:the Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-Border Bank Lending," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 259-290, April.
    18. Fischer, Andreas M. & Yeşin, Pınar, 2026. "The kindness of strangers: Brexit and bilateral financial linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    19. Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio & Arango-Lozano, Lucía & Castelblanco, Geraldine & Fajardo-Baquero, Nicolás & Ruiz-Sánchez, María Alejandra, 2022. "The effects of Monetary Policy on Capital Flows A Meta-Analysis," Working papers 93, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    20. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian T. Lundblad, 2020. "Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-On / Risk-Off and Emerging Market Tail Risk," Research Working Paper RWP 20-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:141:y:2024:i:c:s0261560623002140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.