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Natural disasters and voting behavior under authoritarian regimes: Evidence from the Brazilian shrimp vote

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  • Baerlocher, Diogo
  • Caldas, Renata
  • Cavalcanti, Francisco
  • Schneider, Rodrigo

Abstract

This paper explores the connection between natural disasters and protest voting against autocratic regimes, using data from the 1979–1983 drought in Brazil’s semi-arid region. We measure drought severity using deviations from historical water deficit means obtained from meteorological ground stations. Results indicate that adverse weather conditions have a negative impact on protest voting against the military regime. Additionally, disaster relief, income inequality, and social vulnerability measures do not show significant effects as potential mechanisms. However, we observe heterogeneous effects among areas with different shares of irrigated farmland, suggesting that economic vulnerability may be a driving factor behind the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Baerlocher, Diogo & Caldas, Renata & Cavalcanti, Francisco & Schneider, Rodrigo, 2025. "Natural disasters and voting behavior under authoritarian regimes: Evidence from the Brazilian shrimp vote," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:234:y:2025:i:c:s0167268125001180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106998
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H76 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other Expenditure Categories
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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