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Climate Impacts, Political Institutions, and Leader Survival: Effects of Droughts and Flooding Precipitation

Author

Listed:
  • Oleg Smirnov

    (Stony Brook University)

  • Martin C. Steinwand

    (University of Essex)

  • Tingyin Xiao

    (Princeton University)

  • Minghua Zhang

    (Stony Brook University)

Abstract

We explore how the political survival of leaders in different political regimes is affected by drought and flooding precipitation, which are the two major anticipated impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Using georeferenced climate data for the entire world and the Archigos dataset for the period of 1950–2010, we find that irregular political exits, such as coups or revolutions, are not significantly affected by climate impacts. Similarly, drought has a positive but insignificant effect on all types of political exits. On the other hand, we find that floods increase political turnover through the regular means such as elections or term limits. Democracies are better able to withstand the pressures arising from the economic and social disruptions associated with high precipitation than other institutional arrangements. Our results further suggest that, in the context of floods, political institutions play a more important role than economic development for the leaders’ political survival.

Suggested Citation

  • Oleg Smirnov & Martin C. Steinwand & Tingyin Xiao & Minghua Zhang, 2018. "Climate Impacts, Political Institutions, and Leader Survival: Effects of Droughts and Flooding Precipitation," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 181-201, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ediscc:v:2:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s41885-018-0024-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s41885-018-0024-7
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    2. Daniela Wenzel, 2021. "Droughts and corruption," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 3-29, October.
    3. Daniela Wenzel, 2018. "Droughts and Corruption," Working Paper 181/2018, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.

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