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Coming into Money: The Impact of Foreign Aid on Leader Survival

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  • Amanda A. Licht

    (University of Iowa, Iowa City, USA, amanda-licht@uiowa.edu)

Abstract

Donors are more likely to send aid to leaders facing elevated risks of losing power, but targets’ ability to benefit from this assistance is conditioned by regime type and political processes. The institutionalization of winning coalitions’ loyalty across regime type follows opposite patterns, supporting opposite temporal dynamics across regime types. Democratic leaders’ coalitions are firmest immediately after taking office, and aid is of most assistance to them at that time. As competition and dissatisfaction grow, aid becomes a political liability. In small winning coalition systems, however, coalitions become more solid over time, facilitating increasing benefits from aid. Without a firm coalition, however, external resources are destabilizing to autocratic leaders. Analysis of 4,692 leader years from 1960 to 2001 using a censored probit model supports these expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Amanda A. Licht, 2010. "Coming into Money: The Impact of Foreign Aid on Leader Survival," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(1), pages 58-87, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:54:y:2010:i:1:p:58-87
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002709351104
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mare Sarr & Chiara Ravetti & Tim Swanson, 2015. "Why Give Aid to Resource-Rich Autocrats?," CIES Research Paper series 39-2015, Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute.
    3. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2019. "Friends for the benefits: The effects of political ties on sovereign borrowing conditions," Research Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland.
    4. Jones, Sam & Tarp, Finn, 2016. "Does foreign aid harm political institutions?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 266-281.
    5. Jones, Sam & Tarp, Finn, 2016. "Does foreign aid harm political institutions?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 266-281.
    6. Simone Dietrich & Amanda Murdie, 2017. "Human rights shaming through INGOs and foreign aid delivery," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 95-120, March.
    7. Reinsberg, Bernhard, 2015. "Foreign Aid Responses to Political Liberalization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 46-61.
    8. Ravetti, Chiara & Sarr, Mare & Swanson, Tim, 2018. "Foreign aid and political instability in resource-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 277-294.
    9. Jablonski, Ryan S. & Oliver, Steven & Hastings, Justin V., 2017. "The Tortuga disease: the perverse effects of illicit foreign capital," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67105, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Oleg Smirnov & Martin C. Steinwand & Tingyin Xiao & Minghua Zhang, 2018. "Climate Impacts, Political Institutions, and Leader Survival: Effects of Droughts and Flooding Precipitation," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 181-201, July.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_013 is not listed on IDEAS

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