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The Turnover Trap: New Leaders, Reputation, and International Conflict

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  • Scott Wolford

Abstract

A formal model of crisis bargaining in the shadow of leadership turnover is analyzed where (1) successive leaders of the same state may differ in their resolve, (2) their resolve is private information, and (3) the probability of leadership turnover depends on bargaining behavior and conflict outcomes. The model provides novel answers to a number of questions about the relationship between an incumbent's time in office, the prospects of losing office, the anticipated behavior of future leaders, and the current probability of conflict. Taken together, these results add further weight to recent claims that leaders, not states, should be considered the fundamental units of analysis in international relations.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Wolford, 2007. "The Turnover Trap: New Leaders, Reputation, and International Conflict," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(4), pages 772-788, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:51:y:2007:i:4:p:772-788
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00280.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, 2017. "Dangerous bargains with the devil? Incorporating new approaches in peace science for the study of war," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(1), pages 98-116, January.
    2. Lopez, Anthony C. & Johnson, Dominic D.P., 2020. "The determinants of war in international relations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 983-997.
    3. Kevin T. Greene & Caroline Tornquist & Robbert Fokkink & Roy Lindelauf & V. S. Subrahmanian, 2021. "Understanding the timing of Chinese border incursions into India," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Chen, Shuo & Fan, Xinyu, 2021. "Warcraft: The legitimacy building of usurpers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 409-431.
    5. Jerg Gutmann & Katarzyna Metelska-Szaniawska & Stefan Voigt, 2023. "Leader Characteristics and Constitutional Compliance," Working Papers 2023-11, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    6. Gary Uzonyi & Matthew Wells, 2016. "Domestic institutions, leader tenure and the duration of civil war," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(3), pages 294-310, July.
    7. Alastair Smith, 2009. "Political Groups, Leader Change, and the Pattern of International Cooperation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(6), pages 853-877, December.
    8. Amanda A. Licht, 2010. "Coming into Money: The Impact of Foreign Aid on Leader Survival," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(1), pages 58-87, February.
    9. Matthew DiLorenzo & Becca McBride & James Lee Ray, 2019. "Presidential political ambition and US foreign conflict behavior, 1816–2010," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(2), pages 111-130, March.
    10. Gary Uzonyi & Toby Rider, 2017. "Determinants of Foreign Aid: Rivalry and Domestic Instability," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 272-299, March.
    11. Peter Bils & William Spaniel, 2017. "Policy bargaining and militarized conflict," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 29(4), pages 647-678, October.
    12. Talya Bobick & Alastair Smith, 2013. "The impact of leader turnover on the onset and the resolution of WTO disputes," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 423-445, December.
    13. Scott Wolford, 2020. "War and diplomacy on the world stage: Crisis bargaining before third parties," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(2), pages 235-261, April.
    14. Dreher, Axel & Jensen, Nathan M., 2013. "Country or leader? Political change and UN General Assembly voting," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 183-196.
    15. Marius Mehrl & Tobias Böhmelt, 2021. "How mediator leadership transitions influence mediation effectiveness," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(1), pages 45-62, January.
    16. Luba Levin-Banchik, 2021. "Precrisis military hostility and escalation in international crises," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(1), pages 63-86, January.
    17. Daehee Bak, 2020. "Autocratic political cycle and international conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(3), pages 259-279, May.
    18. Dan Reiter & Scott Wolford, 2022. "Gender, sexism, and war 1," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 34(1), pages 59-77, January.
    19. Amanda A Licht, 2022. "Introducing Regular Turnover Details, 1960–2015: A dataset on world leaders’ legal removal from office," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 277-285, March.
    20. Dreher, Axel & Jensen, Nathan M., 2013. "Country or leader? Political change and UN General Assembly voting," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 183-196.
    21. Steven Liao & Daniel McDowell, 2022. "Closing time: Reputational constraints on capital account policy in emerging markets," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 543-568, July.
    22. Colin Krainin & John Slinkman, 2017. "Bargaining with a biased autocrat," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 29(2), pages 273-298, April.
    23. Amanda A Licht & Susan Hannah Allen, 2018. "Repressing for reputation," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(5), pages 582-595, September.
    24. Matthew Fuhrmann, 2020. "When Do Leaders Free‐Ride? Business Experience and Contributions to Collective Defense," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(2), pages 416-431, April.

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