IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v69y2024ipbs1544612324011371.html

Recent evidence on the sovereign-bank nexus in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Bochmann, Paul
  • Kagerer, Benedikt
  • Pancaro, Cosimo

Abstract

This paper estimates sovereign-bank default risk spillovers in the euro area. Spillovers spiked at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and of the Russian invasion of Ukraine but remained contained during the March 2023 banking sector turmoil. Panel regressions find that higher banks’ sovereign exposures increase spillovers between the creditor bank and the borrowing sovereign. Countries with lower GDP growth, higher default probabilities, and a higher debt burden transmit more risk to banks. Larger, less capitalized and more funding-risk-exposed banks convey more default risk to sovereigns. Public aid to the financial sector reduces spillovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Bochmann, Paul & Kagerer, Benedikt & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2024. "Recent evidence on the sovereign-bank nexus in the euro area," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:69:y:2024:i:pb:s1544612324011371
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106108
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612324011371
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106108?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcel Fratzscher & Malte Rieth, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Bank Bailouts and the Sovereign-Bank Risk Nexus in the Euro Area," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 745-775.
    2. Alter, Adrian & Schüler, Yves S., 2012. "Credit spread interdependencies of European states and banks during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3444-3468.
    3. Acharya, Viral V. & Gündüz, Yalin & Johnson, Timothy C., 2022. "Bank use of sovereign CDS in the Eurozone crisis: Hedging and risk incentives," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Keddad, Benjamin & Schalck, Christophe, 2020. "Evaluating sovereign risk spillovers on domestic banks during the European debt crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 356-375.
    5. Guntram B. Wolff, 2012. "Are banks affected by their holdings of government debt?," Bruegel Working Papers 717, Bruegel.
    6. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    7. Christian Gross & Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Analyzing credit risk transmission to the nonfinancial sector in Europe: A network approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 61-81, January.
    8. Foglia, Matteo & Angelini, Eliana, 2020. "The diabolical sovereigns/banks risk loop: A VAR quantile design," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    9. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2020. "A non-linear analysis of the sovereign bank nexus in the EU," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    10. Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Caio Ferreira & Nigel Jenkinson & Mr. Luc Laeven & Alberto Martin & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & Alex Popov, 2018. "Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2018/016, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch, and Systemic Bailouts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 60-93, February.
    12. Abbassi, Puriya & Brownlees, Christian & Hans, Christina & Podlich, Natalia, 2017. "Credit risk interconnectedness: What does the market really know?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-12.
    13. Theodoros Bratis & Nikiforos T. Laopodis & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2018. "Contagion and interdependence in Eurozone bank and sovereign credit markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 655-674, October.
    14. De Bruyckere, Valerie & Gerhardt, Maria & Schepens, Glenn & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2013. "Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4793-4809.
    15. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    16. repec:ecb:ecbdps:20187 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Foglia, Matteo & Pacelli, Vincenzo & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2023. "Systemic risk propagation in the Eurozone: A multilayer network approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 332-346.
    18. Leonello, Agnese, 2018. "Government guarantees and the two-way feedback between banking and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 592-619.
    19. Bratis, Theodoros & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2020. "Systemic risk and financial stability dynamics during the Eurozone debt crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valenzuela, Patricio, 2025. "Corporate credit ratings, banking fragility, and sovereign credit risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Mohamed M. Sraieb & Shahnawaz Muhammed & Vladimir Dženopoljac & Samet Gunay, 2025. "Determinants of Russia’s probability of default: evidence from domestic and global indicators," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(3), pages 854-882, September.
    3. Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Ledóchowski, Michał & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2025. "Fiscal policy and government bond yields: New evidence from the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Foglia, Matteo & Angelini, Eliana, 2020. "The diabolical sovereigns/banks risk loop: A VAR quantile design," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    2. Janbaz, M. & Hassan, M.K. & Floreani, J. & Dreassi, A., 2024. "Liquidity pressure and the sovereign-bank diabolic loop," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1039-1057.
    3. Caporin, Massimiliano & Natvik, Gisle J. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2019. "The bank-sovereign nexus: Evidence from a non-bailout episode," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 181-196.
    4. Foglia, Matteo & Addi, Abdelhamid & Angelini, Eliana, 2022. "The Eurozone banking sector in the time of COVID-19: Measuring volatility connectedness," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Marcel Fratzscher & Malte Rieth, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Bank Bailouts and the Sovereign-Bank Risk Nexus in the Euro Area," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 745-775.
    6. Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2021. "Measuring the deadly embrace: Systemic and sovereign risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Bales, Stephan, 2022. "Sovereign and bank dependence in the eurozone: A multi-scale approach using wavelet-network analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Podstawski, Maximilian & Velinov, Anton, 2018. "The state dependent impact of bank exposure on sovereign risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 63-75.
    9. Beltratti, Andrea & Stulz, Rene M., 2015. "Bank Sovereign Bond Holdings, Sovereign Shock Spillovers, and Moral Hazard durning the European Crisis," Working Paper Series 2015-06, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    10. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Klein, Tony & Jiang, Yong, 2025. "Unveiling the asymmetric dynamic spillovers in industry bond credit risk: Is the energy industry the prime mover?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    11. González-Velasco, Carmen & García-López, Marcos & González-Fernández, Marcos, 2022. "Does sovereign risk impact banking risk in the Eurozone? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    12. Podstawski, Maximilian & Velinov, Anton, 2018. "The state dependent impact of bank exposure on sovereign risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 88, pages 63-75.
    13. Roman Garcia & Dimitri Lorenzani & Daniel Monteiro & Francesco Perticari & Bořek Vašíček & Lukas Vogel, 2021. "Financial Spillover and Contagion Risks in the Euro Area in 2007-2019," European Economy - Discussion Papers 137, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Lukas Boeckelmann & Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon, 2021. "Structural Estimation of Time-Varying Spillovers:an Application to International Credit Risk Transmission," Working Papers hal-03338209, HAL.
    15. Gori, Filippo, 2018. "Dissecting the ‘doom loop’: the bank-sovereign credit risk nexus during the US debt ceiling crisis," MPRA Paper 87994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Chari, Anusha & Garcés, Felipe & Martínez, Juan Francisco & Valenzuela, Patricio, 2024. "Sovereign credit spreads, banking fragility, and global factors," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Dungey, Mardi & Harvey, John & Volkov, Vladimir, 2019. "The changing international network of sovereign debt and financial institutions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 149-168.
    18. Martynova, Natalya & Perotti, Enrico & Suarez, Javier, 2022. "Capital forbearance in the bank recovery and resolution game," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 884-904.
    19. Foglia, Matteo & Pacelli, Vincenzo & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2023. "Systemic risk propagation in the Eurozone: A multilayer network approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 332-346.
    20. Keddad, Benjamin & Schalck, Christophe, 2020. "Evaluating sovereign risk spillovers on domestic banks during the European debt crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 356-375.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:69:y:2024:i:pb:s1544612324011371. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.