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Are carry, momentum and value still there in currencies?

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  • Hutchinson, Mark C.
  • Kyziropoulos, Panagiotis E.
  • O'Brien, John
  • O'Reilly, Philip
  • Sharma, Tripti

Abstract

We show that carry, momentum and value predictability in currencies is associated with mispricing. Specifically, investment performance disappears subsequent to published evidence showing portfolio returns are not fully explained by risk. Replicating these studies, we show that the average out-of-sample Sharpe ratio decreases from +0.39 to −0.32. Cross sectional tests show that currencies no longer respond to interest rate and real exchange rate differentials. During this period currency excess returns do not exhibit autocorrelation. Our results are consistent with investors learning about mispricing from academic research.

Suggested Citation

  • Hutchinson, Mark C. & Kyziropoulos, Panagiotis E. & O'Brien, John & O'Reilly, Philip & Sharma, Tripti, 2022. "Are carry, momentum and value still there in currencies?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:83:y:2022:i:c:s1057521922002058
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102245
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    1. Hutchinson, Mark C. & Kyziropoulos, Panagiotis E. & O’Brien, John & O’Reilly, Philip & Sharma, Tripti, 2022. "Technical trading rule profitability in currencies: It’s all about momentum," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency return predictability; Carry; Momentum; Time series momentum; Cross sectional momentum; Value;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

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