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Unintended consequences: International trade shocks and electoral outcomes during the Second Spanish Republic, 1931–1936

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  • Betrán, Concepción
  • Huberman, Michael

Abstract

An intractable domestic conflict between forces on the right and the left roiled the Second Spanish Republic. We claim that international trade shocks exacerbated political instability. Leveraging an exposure design and disaggregated trade and employment data, we study the effects of import and export exposure on vote shares of parties and coalitions in the Republic's three elections, 1931, 1933, and 1936. An increase in import exposure had a modest effect on election outcomes. The primary vector of change was the disruption in export markets caused by the world depression and discriminatory trade practices, most importantly the United Kingdom's adoption of imperial preference. Trade dislocation harmed the left and benefitted the right. If trade had remained at 1928 levels, our projections show that the Popular Front would have gained a clear and comfortable majority in the decisive 1936 election.

Suggested Citation

  • Betrán, Concepción & Huberman, Michael, 2024. "Unintended consequences: International trade shocks and electoral outcomes during the Second Spanish Republic, 1931–1936," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:92:y:2024:i:c:s0014498323000505
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101556
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    Keywords

    Second Spanish Republic; Interwar Europe; Trade shocks; Electoral outcomes; Political extremism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • P45 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - International Linkages

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