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Spatiotemporal dynamics and spatial spillover effects of ultra-high voltage power grid expansion on carbon emissions in China

Author

Listed:
  • Duman, Zaenhaer
  • Mao, Xianqiang
  • Zhang, Shining
  • Chen, Xing
  • Gao, Yubing
  • Chen, Yongpeng
  • Hu, Yunjun
  • Chang, Yifan
  • Si, Xiaopeng
  • Han, Zichen

Abstract

Effects of UHV grid connection on carbon emissions vary overtime and the spillover effects are far beyond the direct power output end and input end. Using panel data from 251 prefecture-level administrative regions in China, this study treats “connecting to the UHV grid” as a quasi-natural experiment to analyze its impacts on carbon emissions. In addition to multiperiod difference-in-difference (DID) models, an innovative spatial DID is constructed based on spatial weight matrices, incorporating local power grid interconnection, urban agglomeration, inter-regional social-economic linkages, and geographic proximity, to identify the spatial spillover effects of UHV grid connections. The study revealed that (1) The UHV grid connection significantly reduces carbon emissions at the power input regions in eastern and central China, while no robust evidence of impact is found at the power output end, including northwestern and southwestern regions. The overall decrease in carbon emissions is primarily due to the improvements in the energy structure and energy efficiency. (2) The UHV grid has a significant spatial spillover effect on carbon emissions through local power grid connections and socioeconomic interactions among regions, reducing carbon emissions in neighboring areas within a 200-km radius at the power input end. (3) The UHV grid connection helps decouple economic growth from emissions by reducing both carbon intensity and synergistic mitigation of air pollution. The acceleration of UHV grid construction is recommended to strengthen and leverage the advantages of multiple dimensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Duman, Zaenhaer & Mao, Xianqiang & Zhang, Shining & Chen, Xing & Gao, Yubing & Chen, Yongpeng & Hu, Yunjun & Chang, Yifan & Si, Xiaopeng & Han, Zichen, 2025. "Spatiotemporal dynamics and spatial spillover effects of ultra-high voltage power grid expansion on carbon emissions in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:339:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225047723
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.139130
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