IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v40y2013icp927-935.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantitative analysis of feasibility of hydrous ethanol futures contracts in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Quintino, Derick David
  • David, Sergio Adriani

Abstract

Brazil's first ethanol futures contract, which was implemented in 2000, failed to offer sufficient liquidity to attract market agents. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the new ethanol futures contracts launched by BMF-BOVESPA in 2010 meet the requirements to render them feasible. The originality of this work stems from its approach in analyzing different cross-hedging possibilities in the food and energy chains. This analysis, which covers the period of May 2010 to April 2012, evaluates the degree of competition in the sector, the price volatility of the spot market, the price correlations between its possible substitutes, as well as the possibility of cross-hedging Brazil's ethanol with contracts in international futures markets and their potential degree of substitution. The results of this study indicate that the new configuration of BMF-BOVESPA ethanol futures contracts meets the most requirements for viability. Nevertheless, the ethanol distribution sector is relatively concentrated, which may limit the liquidity of BMF-BOVESPA ethanol futures contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Quintino, Derick David & David, Sergio Adriani, 2013. "Quantitative analysis of feasibility of hydrous ethanol futures contracts in Brazil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 927-935.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:40:y:2013:i:c:p:927-935
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2013.07.027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988313001722
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.07.027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sanders, Dwight R. & Greer, Tracy D., 2002. "Hedging Spot Corn: An Examination Of The Minneapolis Grain Exchange'S Cash Settled Corn Contract," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19064, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    2. Keith Bollman & Philip Garcia & Sarahelen Thompson, 2003. "What Killed the Diammonium Phosphate Futures Contract?," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 483-505.
    3. Rahman, Shaikh Mahfuzur & Turner, Steven C. & Costa, Ecio de Farias, 2001. "Cross-Hedging Cottonseed Meal," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 19(2), pages 1-9.
    4. Brorsen, B. Wade & Fofana, N'Zue F., 2001. "Success And Failure Of Agricultural Futures Contracts," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 19(2), pages 1-17.
    5. Joost M. E. Pennings & Matthew T. G. Meulenberg, 1997. "The hedging performance in new agricultural futures markets: A note," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 295-300.
    6. Sandor, Richard L, 1973. "Innovation by an Exchange: A Case Study of the Development of the Plywood Futures Contract," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 119-136, April.
    7. Rashid, Shahidur & Winter-Nelson, Alex & Garcia, Philip, 2010. "Purpose and potential for commodity exchanges in African economies:," IFPRI discussion papers 1035, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Hung, Mao-Wei & Lin, Bing-Huei & Huang, Yu-Chuan & Chou, Jian-Hsin, 2011. "Determinants of futures contract success: Empirical examinations for the Asian futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 452-458, June.
    9. Telser, Lester G, 1981. "Why There Are Organized Futures Markets," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(1), pages 1-22, April.
    10. Mark J. Powers, 1967. "Effects of Contract Provisions on the Success of a Futures Contract," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 833-843.
    11. Kennya B. Siqueira & Carlos Arthur B. da Silva & Danilo R.D. Aguiar, 2008. "Viability of introducing milk futures contracts in Brazil: a multiple criteria decision analysis," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 491-509.
    12. Dwight R. Sanders & Mark R. Manfredo, 2002. "The white shrimp futures market: Lessons in contract design and marketing," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 505-522.
    13. Pennings, Joost M. E. & M. Leuthold, Raymond, 2001. "Introducing new futures contracts: reinforcement versus cannibalism," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 659-675, October.
    14. Sarahelen Thompson & Philip Garcia & Lynne Dallafior Wildman, 1996. "The demise of the high fructose corn syrup futures contract: A case study," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 697-724, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Derick D. Quintino & Sergio A. David & Carlos E. de F. Vian, 2017. "Analysis of the Relationship between Ethanol Spot and Futures Prices in Brazil," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-10, April.
    2. Rubio-Varas, Mar & Muñoz-Delgado, Beatriz, 2017. "200 years diversifying the energy mix? Diversification paths of the energy baskets of European early comers vs. latecomers," Working Papers in Economic History 2017/01, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    3. Awudu, Iddrisu & Wilson, William & Dahl, Bruce, 2016. "Hedging strategy for ethanol processing with copula distributions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 59-65.
    4. David, S.A. & Inácio, C.M.C. & Quintino, D.D. & Machado, J.A.T., 2020. "Measuring the Brazilian ethanol and gasoline market efficiency using DFA-Hurst and fractal dimension," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Rafael Baptista Palazzi & Ata Assaf & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle, 2024. "Dynamic connectedness between energy markets and the Brazilian cash market: An empirical analysis pre‐ and post‐COVID‐19," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 27-56, January.
    6. Derick David Quintino & Heloisa Lee Burnquist & Paulo Jorge Silveira Ferreira, 2021. "Carbon Emissions and Brazilian Ethanol Prices: Are They Correlated? An Econophysics Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
    7. Rafael Henrique Mainardes Ferreira & Claudia Tania Picinin, 2018. "Bibliometric analysis for characterization of oil production in Brazilian territory," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(3), pages 1945-1974, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fizaine, Florian, 2018. "Toward generalization of futures contracts for raw materials: A probabilistic answer applied to metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 379-388.
    2. Cavanaugh, Grant & Penick, Michael, 2018. "The lifecycle of exchange-traded derivatives," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 47-68.
    3. Jingjing Wang & Xiaoyang Wang, 2023. "Why is water illiquid?: The NQH2O water index futures," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(1), pages 602-621, March.
    4. David K. Ding & Wui Boon Lim, 2024. "Lessons from the Demise of the Brent Crude Oil Futures Contract on the Singapore Exchange," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-22, June.
    5. Perera, Devmali & Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T., 2020. "Does the tea market require a futures contract? Evidence from the Sri Lankan tea market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Bjursell, Johan & Frino, Alex & Tse, Yiuman & Wang, George H.K., 2010. "Volatility and trading activity following changes in the size of futures contracts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 967-980, December.
    7. Qianqian Mao & Jens-Peter Loy & Thomas Glauben & Yanjun Ren, 2023. "Are futures markets functioning well for agricultural perishables? Evidence from China's apple futures market," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(12), pages 471-484.
    8. Bharat Ramaswami & Jatinder Bir Singh, 2006. "Underdeveloped spot markets and futures trading: The Soya Oil exchange in India," Discussion Papers 06-03, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    9. Dummu, Tata Rao, 2009. "Commodity Futures Markets in India: Its Impact on Production and Prices," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 64(3), pages 1-24.
    10. Kennya B. Siqueira & Carlos Arthur B. da Silva & Danilo R.D. Aguiar, 2008. "Viability of introducing milk futures contracts in Brazil: a multiple criteria decision analysis," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 491-509.
    11. Parcell, Joseph L., 2002. "Emerging Ip Markets: The Tokyo Grain Exchange Non-Gmo Soybean Contract," Working Papers 26038, University of Missouri Columbia, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    12. Qianqian Mao & Jens-Peter Loy & Thomas Glauben & Yanjun Ren, . "Are futures markets functioning well for agricultural perishables? Evidence from China's apple futures market," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 0.
    13. Hung, Mao-Wei & Lin, Bing-Huei & Huang, Yu-Chuan & Chou, Jian-Hsin, 2011. "Determinants of futures contract success: Empirical examinations for the Asian futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 452-458, June.
    14. Paul, Allen B., 1976. "Treatment of Hedging in Commodity Market Regulation," Technical Bulletins 158109, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    15. Joost M. E. Pennings & Matthew T. G. Meulenberg, 1998. "New Futures Markets in Agricultural Production Rights: Possibilities and Constraints for the British and Dutch Milk Quota Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 50-66, March.
    16. Hegde, S. Aaron, 2004. "An Economic History Of The Failure Of Broiler Futures," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20397, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Joost M.E. Pennings & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1999. "Commodity Futures Contract Viability: A Multidisciplinary Approach," Finance 9905002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Atle Oglend & Hans‐Martin Straume, 2020. "Futures market hedging efficiency in a new futures exchange: Effects of trade partner diversification," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 617-631, April.
    19. Rashid, Shahidur, 2015. "Commodity Exchanges and Market Development: What Have we Learned?," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212488, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Necla Ilter Kucukcolak, 2019. "Evaluation of Commodity Market Experiences: More Than a Design Issue," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 66-78.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy; Sugarcane industry; Ethanol futures contract; BMF-BOVESPA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:40:y:2013:i:c:p:927-935. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.